Thread by @LahibHigel

Some thoughts on the agreement between Baghdad and Erbil to stabilise Sinjar. It addresses two main challenges: (1) Unifying the administration and (2) expelling all external forces from the area in order to enable reconstruction and the return of IDPs. 1/10

There are currently two parallel administrations in Sinjar, one backed by the Hashd and the other by the KDP. The agreement establishes that an independent, technocratic, district head will be selected, and other positions will be appointed by a joint committee. 2/10

A possible outcome is some kind of power-sharing formula that revolves around the main positions: the district head (likely to be KDP-affiliated), the president of the district council and the heads of Sinuni and Qairawan sub-districts. 3/10

Any power-sharing agreement will have to take into account the intricate local tensions within the Yazidi community and vis-à-vis its neighbors, mainly the Sunni Arabs. A related, but missing component in the agreement, is the question of reconciliation. 4/10

On the security front, all external forces (including the PKK and Hashd) are to withdraw while local police will be in charge of security inside the district. 5/10

The local police will include a new force of 2500 recruits from the district, of which 1500 are to be drafted from returning IDPs. The agreement outlines which authorities will be in charge of implementing different parts of the agreement — but not how. 6/10

There is no negotiated settlement on the withdrawal of the PKK, nor an understanding on how to disarm or integrate its local affiliated force, the YBS. An issue of paramount importance for Turkey which has increased its targeting of the PKK inside Iraq. 7/10

Recent statements by Qais al-Khazali as well as the PKK-termed self-administration of Sinjar indicate that factions of the Hashd as well as the PKK (and affiliates) reject the agreement. 8/10

While the US supports the agreement (it limits the influence Iran backed groups in the area), it simultaneously supports the PKK affiliated YPG on the other side of the border – a complicated equation should the PKK end up in armed confrontation with Iraqi forces. 9/10

Will the US, France, UNAMI and potential other backers of this agreement be able to act as guarantors for its implementation? Locals who have welcomed the agreement are understandably cautiously optimistic. 10/10