🧵Yesterday afternoon, factions of the self-dubbed Islamic Resistance in Iraq broke another escalation ceiling when they targeted the Harir airbase in Erbil with a bomb-laden drone, injuring 3 US personnel, one of whom is in a critical condition. Although the tit-for-tat attacks between U.S. forces and the factions in Iraq have a logic of their own, it is possible that Harir was targeted in response to the killing of an IRGC commander in Syria the day before.

🧵Over a year since elections, Iraq's Parliament finally elected a new President, Latif Rashid, who in turn has designated the Framework nominee for prime minister, Mohammed Shiaa al-Sudani. How did a Sadrist election success turn into a victory of his nemesis, former PM Maliki? Aligning with the KDP and the Sunni Sovereignty alliance led by parliament speaker Halbousi, Sadr intended to break with the consensus tradition in government formation. He ran into trouble from day 1.

🧵 Some reflections on what has happened in Iraq over the last week. While there has been much focus on Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr there has been less explanation of the roles of his opponents in the Shiite Coordination Framework which comprises a set of different positions. 1) Sadr made a few critical mistakes throughout the post-election period. His victorious rhetoric after his electoral success was alarming to his opponents, mainly former PM Maliki and the parties with Hashd affiliation whose institution Sadr wants to undermine.

🧵 تقريرنا الجديد @CrisisGroup الذي تم نشره يشرح لماذا فشلت اتفاقية سنجار لعام ٢٠٢٠ بتحقيق الاستقرار لقضاء سنجار ولماذا لا تزال منطقة ساخنة سنوات بعد تحريرها من قبل القوات العراقية والكردية من قبضة داعش. ٧/١ crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no… لابد من التنويه الى ان الرابط اعلاه هو الترجمة العربية لفصل الملخص التنفيذي من التقرير و بإن الترجمة العربية لكامل التقرير سوف تكون متاحة قريبا.

🧵 Our newly published @Crisisgroup report on #Sinjar explains why the October 2020 Sinjar agreement has failed to stabilise the district, and why Sinjar remains a flashpoint years after Iraqi and Kurdish forces liberated it from ISIS.
crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no… Nearly two years after Baghdad and Erbil signed the Sinjar agreement, the security situation remains precarious and the district lacks an authorised administration that can carry out public services.

🧵 With two days to go to the election of a new President for #Iraq, Sadr is honoring his reputation of changing his mind. But is he really?

https://twitter.com/LahibHigel/status/1480318263296991233

In a tweet yesterday, he made a vague statement about the conditions for the KDP candidate Zebari to be elected president. Some interpreted it as a withdrawal of support. Today, he issued a statement urging his MPs to boycott the upcoming parliamentary vote on the president.

🧵 After yesterday's attack on PM Kadhimi's residence inside the GZ we may have reached the ceiling of escalation on part of the pro-Iran resistance groups within the Hashd to pressure concessions in government formation. Statements of various Hashd leaders during the day indicate that there is no cohesive approach: a mix of condemnation, denial, pointing to third party interference etc.

The recent days quarrel between the #Iraqi gov. and resistance groups reflects an internal Iraqi power struggle more than a US-Iran showdown. With the upcoming anniversary of the killings of Muhandis and Soleimani, the fasa’il may be more anxious to take revenge than Iran is.👇 On 22 December, a barrage of rockets damaged parts of the US Embassy in the GZ. The @WSJ called it the largest attack on the embassy in a decade. Previous threats by the USG to close the Embassy ahead of an expected US military response still stand.

Some thoughts on the agreement between Baghdad and Erbil to stabilise Sinjar. It addresses two main challenges: (1) Unifying the administration and (2) expelling all external forces from the area in order to enable reconstruction and the return of IDPs. 1/10 There are currently two parallel administrations in Sinjar, one backed by the Hashd and the other by the KDP. The agreement establishes that an independent, technocratic, district head will be selected, and other positions will be appointed by a joint committee. 2/10

Former PM Maliki appeared in an interview at @alsharqiyatv, stating that the state lost control in the wake of the October protests last year. Provinces such as #Nassriya have fallen at the hands of violent protesters, he says. [Thread 1/4] "Demanding employment is a legitimate demand", (read: calling for the downfall of the system is not). It is therefore incumbent on the government to counter the chaos unleashed by 'politicised' revolting youth. Maliki's solution? [2/4]