A fun recent ship from Stripe: we trained an ML model on all of the disputes and chargebacks to give every one in your dashboard a 1 to 5 score based on likelihood that you'll win it, which we can predict given card issuer, type of dispute, etc with some accuracy.
This lets you and/or your CS teams prioritize which disputes to actually work on evidence collection for and which to either just refund-and-chalk-up-as-cost-of-doing-business or use less-resource-intensive evidence submission (e.g. with the API you could post a templated letter)
B2B software is generally understood to not be intrinsically a network effects business, but scale affords some data-driven advantages, and intriguingly it makes those advantages possible for customers who don't *themselves* have sufficient scale to do this.
e.g. You can imagine without loss of generality AppAmaGooFaceSoft see enough disputes to have teams working on Hadooping a few gigabytes of transaction data to squeeze a few bps out of their win rate, but you can't justify an engineering team on that below ~$1B of annual revenue.
"What is the ML actually doing here?"

Among other things, do you have a point of view on how likely a particular Japanese regional bank is to sustain a dispute opened in a card not present transaction against a foreign e-commerce merchant? I have a guess, but math has an answer.

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More from @patio11

11 Oct
This is a topic which is discussed quietly among friends frequently in Silicon Valley, which has more diversity in class-at-age-15 than most people give it credit for, and which officially pretends to ignore it internally (to mixed effect).
A colleague of mine calls this “the salad fork effect”; the first time you’re at a professional dinner and don’t pick up the same fork everyone else at the table did automatically.
There are much pointier versions:

Dealing with an investor, HR department, or purchasing and learning their version of their process/norms from them, not from your dinner table or friends decades ago.
Read 4 tweets
11 Oct
This math periodically wows me, too. I once ballparked my brother’s comic novel advice writing blog as “the approximate readership of Mark Twain while he was living.”

Partly population growth, partly distribution, partly greater societal levels of wealth.
“Wealth? How?”

Wealth is the capability of a society to buy outcomes it wants, and ability to participate in discourse via widespread literacy and access are two interesting things you can buy. They’re extremely, extremely expensive by historical standards but we’re loaded.
(Literacy is an extremely demanding skill! We forget that because we have a process which reliably teaches it to almost 100% of children.)
Read 5 tweets
11 Oct
One of the ongoing searches in startupdom is for:

* a new form of economic production
* of something which is widely produced and consumed
* where the alternative’s price is high enough to compete with producer’s BATNA
* and production largely not yet monetized
Ridesharing is a funny word because if you do it non-casually you’re morally a taxi, but it was and is an extremely common non-market transaction. “Can I bum a ride to the airport?”

There was a social currency network hating access to scarce cars and driver time.
*gating access
Read 13 tweets
8 Oct
I wrote about my experiences working at Stripe for the last 4 years: kalzumeus.com/2020/10/09/fou…

It's partly self-reflection, partly my view on why this is an extremely special company, and partly my continuing search for an answer to the question "So what is your *actual job*?"
I think the biggest thing I've learned about myself from the experience is through reflecting, often with @taylorfrancis (then my manager, and a person more people should know) , on what I really want to get out of my career.
Since 2006 I had been mostly punting on that question. I was running companies! Success for the company is success for the career definitionally, right?
Read 12 tweets
8 Oct
This is why Twitter is basically the Bloomberg Terminal for me, and it is incredible that it is not a much better product that I can pay $1k+ a month for.
“A thousand dollars?!?”

The number of things I do which touch Twitter or connections earned or maintained on basis of Twitter either a) justify that trivially or b) suggest I’m making extremely, extremely poor life decisions if they don’t.
Trivial examples:

“Which VCs follow me?”
“Who followed me as a result of X piece?”
“Is X’s engagement with me up or down over time?”
“Alert me immediately, any time day or night, if X ever says the words ‘Some personal news’”
Read 4 tweets
7 Oct
As a non-drinker during my salaryman years who barely drinks now, threading this needle always required me to identify as "geko", which is the quasi-medical quasi-social (degree varies in different people) status of not processing alcohol well.
This not infrequently resulted in:

"Hey Patrick let me fill your cup for you."
"I'm sorry, I'm geko [so I'm sticking to ice tea]."
"... But that's heritable? And you're like Irish or something? Aren't they legendarily drinkers?"
"I imagine they say the same re: Japan in Ireland"
"Patrick you would *lie* to your boss' face?"

I was a salaryman. There is a cultural dance around which things one should say to one's boss with and without the presence of alcohol in the conversation, and no party to this conversation considers it dishonest.
Read 7 tweets

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