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12 Oct, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Tomorrow at 1PM: NYT/Siena in Wisconsin and Michigan, and what else we have coming this week...
nytimes.com/live/2020/pres…
amazing question. @NateSilver538 trying to blowup our A+ rating by getting AK in right at the deadline
not done
a related, key question: does this poll count 3x as much toward our rating bc there are three federal races?

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More from @Nate_Cohn

Nate Cohn Profile picture
12 Oct
Joe Biden leads in Wisconsin and Michigan by a significant margin, according to new Times/Siena polls.
Biden leads Trump by 10 in Wisconsin, 51 to 41 percent.
Biden leads by 8 in Michigan, 48 to 40
nytimes.com/2020/10/12/ups…
Perhaps the most interesting result: Gary Peters (D) holds just a 1 point lead over John James (R), 43-42, in the race for US Senate in Michigan, down from a 10 point lead in June
The polls offered little reason to think that the last week's events had worked in the president's favor, at a time when every week counts.
Voters overwhelmingly thought he should have participated in the virtual debate, and thought Harris won the VP debate
Read 4 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
10 Oct
Here's something I didn't realize: Alyse Galvin (IND, but Dem nominee) has led Don Young (R) in all three polls of AK-AL this cycle. Mainly Dem/progressive sponsored surveys, but still interesting
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/al…
OTOH, it's interesting that the one pure nonpartisan poll here also showed Gavin up in the days ahead of the 2018 election, and Young did quite well among the state's Alaska Native population--which is generally believed to be a particularly tough group to reach in surveys
If the group is so hard to reach that you can't even weight them up, and you end up clumping it in with the more reliably Democratic 'other nonwhite' category, then you can wind up in a spot where you're pretty good in, say, the presidential race but maybe underestimate Young
Read 8 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
9 Oct
Alaska squeaked it out. By reputation, it's a really tough one.
I do think there are real reasons why Alaska is hard. The Alaska Native issue is real, though I do wonder if it's a bit overstated given their share of the electorate. There are *a lot* of people with missing age or party registration.
On the other hand, there was a whole lot of talk about how hard Alaska was in 2014 and the final poll averages in the Senate were better than a lot of places? The polls so far this year seem pretty in line with reasonable, fundamentals based expectations, as well
Read 5 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
7 Oct
One fascinating thing is that most people look at these maps and think there are too many people in the cities.
In both states, the raw sample is slightly too rural (and weighted appropriately)
There are lots of things in polling that are hard to get right. The *number* of voters in rural areas is not hard to get right. The number of rural RVs, for instance, is just a cold hard fact. We can make our polls match it.
As you can see, we have the... latitude and longitude on our respondents. That's an extremely powerful tool for getting urban-rural splits right.
Read 4 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
7 Oct
Ohio is very friendly to the dot map
@kkondik @SeanTrende
The PA/OH contiguous map is pretty nice too
Read 5 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
7 Oct
Over all, I do think the NYT/Siena results in OH/NV and the Marquette Law results for WI are *relatively* good for the president. They're more like the polls we saw before the debate than the Biden>10 type numbers we've seen a lot of lately
Now, I think these are two pretty good pollsters. But we're at the point where the 'good' news for the president is basically the old average, and that's generally a sign things have shifted.
FWIW, I don't see much evidence of nonresponse bias in our polling, or, frankly, even in the polls that do show Biden doing super well. That Biden+12 in PA was D+1 among RVs, after all, and maybe even R+1 among LVs, like our PA poll, @PollsterPatrick ?
Read 5 tweets

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