Thread by @svlcek

Systemic issues are contributing to the continuing #Melbournelockdown, not solely ‘rule breakers.’ One systemic issue is the social response. To combat this, we need to better acknowledge human behaviour and motivation to tailor appropriate social measures. 1/10

Compliance to any rule can only be obtained when there is value at an individual level. The risk vs reward balance is changing for many individuals, and the Vic response needs to acknowledge and support this, not punitively target it. 2/10

Compliance with current restrictions is impeded by reduced fear in transmission, and increased hopelessness. Continued moving goal posts to end a lockdown at a level that appears unachievable naturally impedes compliance. 3/10

Until the social needs of the majority are adequately considered, mystery cases will continue. Asymptomatic, or mildly symptomatic, people avoid getting tested; especially if they fear potential or real repercussions of missing work, ... 4/10

...estimate that their minimal outings were unlikely to achieve transmission, or are too scared to increase the daily case numbers for fear of continued isolation. The focus must move to motivating testing and adherence to sensible, transparent measures. 5/10

People are motivated by reward, not avoiding punishment. The punitive response (i.e., fines) combined with unrealistic targets, now motivates covert risk-taking and reduced disclosure. Individuals calculate their own cost-value analysis of adherence vs reward. 6/10

Current restrictions offer little to no reward for many. Overwhelmingly, people miss their immediate families and close friends, and ability to work. While the latter has industry-specific barriers, the former does not and must be acknowledged if the situation is to improve. 7/10

As far as has been reported, single social bubbles have not contributed to a rise in cases. These must be extended to all Melbournians. More than ever, the comfort of families and friends is needed, and the chance to freely explore another setting. 8/10

Treating two households as a single household able to move freely across two locations is vital for increasing motivation and, in turn, compliance. There would be a greater motivation to test if individuals fear potential transmission to their entire bubble and if... 9/10

hopelessness is reduced by an improved lifestyle. Motivating testing is likely to reduce mystery cases and increase the ability to open up further. The current isolation model is not a long-term viable option: socially, medically, nor economically. 10/10

As @livslogg reminds us, any strategy that relies on 100% compliance is a fantasy

For more on the systemic issues with the #COVID19Vic response, I suggest you follow @NeelaJan @drpete00 and @drvyom. For unbiased updates, @CaseyBriggs and @an_leavy

Oh and how could I forget, follow @migga for daily updates and valued probing questions!