Thread by @ashishkjha

Cases and hospitalizations are rising across the US

And I’m getting asked repeatedly whether we're heading toward lockdowns

Short answer – no – not if we are smart

Long answer? Its complicated

So let’s talk about lockdowns – and how we get through next few months

Thread

Lockdowns – shelter in place orders – are extreme

And awful. Super costly and usually not necessary

We locked down in March/April because virus spread across US in Jan/Feb

And we were blind. We had no testing. We had little choice

Situation now different. We know more

2/n

First, let’s talk about why everyone is concerned:

Cases rising in most states

Hospitalizations rising in most states

Test + going up too

As weather gets colder, expect things to get worse in much of nation

Why?

People will spend more time indoors. But not just that

3/n

Colder, drier air spreads SARS-CoV2 more efficiently

And here's the problem:

States across political spectrum too relaxed

Many loosening restrictions on bars, indoor dining

And, lot of spread happening in homes via gatherings

Home unfortunately, not safe from virus spread

Oh – you know where we are NOT seeing a lot of spread?

In K-12 schools

Schools aren't immune but we are likely overestimating their danger.

We really do need to open more schools

BTW private schools across nation largely open, public not. But I digress

5/9

Key failure of our pandemic response is we always act while looking in rear view mirror

We consistently act too late

We wait until cases rise, % positivity rises, before we pull back

And we are doing that now

And here’s another problem – the time period we are in

6/9

All of our political leaders are focused on the election

Makes sense

But that means we are not hearing much clear communication about the virus

You know the old saying:

Never have a pandemic during a Presidential election year

7/9

So here's our job:

Avoid lockdowns, get through next few months without another 100,000 Americans dying

How?

It’s the old boring stuff, with some twists

So let's make a list:

1. Be diligent about masks. Indoors whenever not home. Outdoors when close to people, speaking

8/10

2. Avoid indoor bars/restaurants. Outdoors or takeout

3. Stay in as small a bubble as you can tolerate

4. Avoid house parties / gatherings

Want to see friend? Outside

Too cold?

Indoors: wear mask, stay apart, open windows even little (Not year to be energy efficient)

9/10

4. Push for more testing

We hear tests coming. Where are the tests??

And if you get called by contact tracer, please respond

5. Push local leaders – mayors, governors – to prioritize schools, not bars/restaurants. Lets provide B/Rs $ so they can survive

10/11

There is a light at end of tunnel, I swear

We have zero national leadership so WE need to step up

Election coming – please vote

But don't lose sight of the virus

Lockdowns are awful, fully preventable

But they require that we be smart. And demand more from our leaders

Fin