Ad spending here, especially for Trump, is tilted toward the *closest* states rather than the *tipping-point* states, which is generally a mistake if your goal is maximizing 270+ EV although might make sense if you think that margin of victory matters.
https://twitter.com/MrArenge/status/1315727684983545857
There's also an element of game theory here. It can be dangerous you aren't spending resources on a state and the other campaign is on offense there, e.g. maybe GA or OH wouldn't be the tipping-point state ordinarily, but it could be if only Biden spent on them.
But instead of spending a bit there as a hedge or deterrent, the Trump campaign is invested quite heavily in those states and underspending in some of the more likely tipping points.
Notably, the campaigns are also a bit over-indexed on states that could provide a quick call on Election Night, such as FL, NC, AZ and OH, while underspending on states like MI, WI and NV that probably won't be callable right away.
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