New paper (👇).

We present+test a functional explanation for why we are “ineffective altruists”.

Allow me to summarize the paper. And use it to highlight what we think is “the right way” to test ‘functional’ explanations & rule out purely ‘proximate’ accounts.

1/
By ‘proximate’ we just mean an explanation in terms of our psychology. An explanation of what we do in terms of what we think, feel, or want.

2/
For instance, a proximate account for why we give in not terribly effective ways would be:

The mental process involved in giving—say, mentally simulating a representative recipient of our gift—is insensitive to the impact of our gift.

3/
If we only imagine one representative recipient, we will fail to take into account the number of recipients our gift is helping.

That’s a proximate account for why we give ineffectively.

4/
Notice implicit in this account: we would give effectively *if not for* the peculiarities of our mental processes involved in giving

5/
In fact, often with proximate accounts, this implicit counterfactual goes unstated and untested.

All that is shown is that the proximate psychology *does yield* the puzzling behavior.

Not that it *has to*. Not that we *have to* rely on that proximate psychology.

6/
The key alternative—which usually isn’t even considered or mentioned:

The proximate psychology is serving an underlying, unconscious, function.

In the case of charitable giving, this might be maximizing social rewards. Which may not be responsive to efficacy.

7/
And when that underlying function doesn’t apply—when we aren’t trying to optimize social rewards, or when social rewards aren’t maximized by ignoring efficacy—a different proximate psychology will come online.

8/
In our opinion, this is precisely what ought to be checked before one accepts a proximate account:

Is the proximate actually just proxying for some underlying function, like maximizing social rewards.

And would the proximate shift if that underlying function weren’t there.

9/
Or is the proximate psychology rigid.

There whether or not there is the underlying function that originally lead to that proximate psychology.

And that underlying function not present when we see the puzzling-to-be-explained behavior.

10/
Psychologists very often presume the latter. But without actually showing it. It’s kind of the default interpretation. But not tested. That’s our main critique of much of the psychology literature.

So here we intended to test it. Allow me to try and explain how.

11/
The key is to look for cases where our proposed functional account—social rewards—don’t apply.

Well, when we make personal decisions—like savings decisions—we are not motivated by social rewards.

Likewise when giving to our kin.

12/
Of course, when giving to charities we are also not consciously motivated by social rewards. But the functional story is that social rewards shape our proximate psychology involved in giving. (The shaping happens because of learning or evolutionary processes.)

13/
So our first study reproduces the classic result:

Multiplying whatever subjects give to charity by a factor ranging from 1 to 10 doesn’t affect what they give.

But shows this result doesn’t apply to a comparable savings decision.

14/
We also reproduce another classic result showing we are insensitive to the number of people who would be saved. When those people are strangers.

But we are sensitive when they are family members.

15/
(We did best we could to make the savings and kin as similar to the charitable decisions as possible. But, in our opinion, the kind of contrasts needed to test these functional stories ALWAYS involve confounds. So best we can do is multiple studies w/ different confounds.)
To us, these are the key studies.

The unique predictions you get out of the functional account that you wouldn’t out of the proximate account.

And clear evidence that the proximate psychology isn’t as rigid as psychologists presumed.

16/
Next we go on to demonstrate that the proximate psychology, when it is activated, is serving the underlying function. in this case: maximizing social rewards, which do not respond to impact of your giving.

17/
To show this, we demonstrate that social rewards in fact do not respond to impact of your giving.

Namely, observers reward subjects more when they give then when they don’t, but ignored how much the gift, or lack thereof, would have been multiplied.

18/
You might wonder why observers aren’t motivated to take into account impact. We speculate this is b/c observers are motivated to reward what others will appreciate them for rewarding. But that can only include stuff that is commonly observable. Impact isn’t.

19/
This leads us to our last study. We provide some evidence for the above speculation by looking at other information, like impact, that’s unlikely to be commonly observed: how much you gave. And show social rewards are also relatively insensitive to that.

20/
So that’s our paper:

We showed...
-the proximate mechanism isn’t as rigid as usually thought.
-the proximate is serving a valuable function, since it fits how the social rewards work.

And as a bonus...
-some speculation+evidence for why the social rewards work that way
More generally this is how we think one *should* test functional accounts+rule out proximate accounts:

1) verify that the proximate is serving some underlying function.
2) find instances where that function does not apply. And show the proximate no longer applies as well.

Eom

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More from @Moshe_Hoffman

22 Jan
Really liked recent mini-series “why we hate”.

👍 summary of psych lit+ historical examples.

But...🔑 thing I thought missing, as usual: No discussion of structural problems/underlying incentives.

Let me explain what I mean+why I think that’s 🔑.



(🧵)
As the docu-series nicely summarizes:

Milgram showed people do bad when authoritative figure tells them. Informative. Important.

But, umm, what determines who authorities want us to harm?

2/
Zimbardo showed we abuse when in position of power.

Moreover, archived recordings + show Z actually pressured subjects to be abusive. And future work shows didn’t replicate when that part left out.

Important.

But, umm, who usually exerts pressure to abuse? Why?

3/
Read 36 tweets
11 Jan
Historical discourse, & discourse surrounding current events, often conflate ‘justifications’ w/ ‘causes’.

Let me give some examples illustrating the conflation, why common methods for de-conflating don’t work, some methods that might, and why it matters.

(Thread)
Of course, sometimes stated reasons are actually the the true reason.

If you asked me why I was carrying an umbrella, I would probably tell you the truth: cause I thought it would rain.

2/
And sometimes the truth is a mistaken belief:

People throughout the works practiced blood letting because of mistaken intuitions re bad fluids and drainage. And lack of knowledge re germ theory.

3/
Read 60 tweets
10 Jan
Recent editorial 👇 (by Kahneman & Renshon) offers a readable summary of many interesting ‘judgment and decision making’ findings pertinent to trigger-happy leaders.

But imo ALSO exemplifies a key limitations of jdm-style explanations.

(Thread.)

foreignpolicy.com/2009/10/13/why…
So the article talks about -overconfidence
-reactive devaluation
-sunk cost fallacy
-the fundamental attribution error

etc.

(I’ll explain.)

2/
That is,

We are prone to go to war b/c
-we over-estimate our likelihood of victory
-we presume our adversaries concessions are not meaningful
-we throw good troops after bad. (Think “the surge.” Or basically every stage in Vietnam.)

3/
Read 55 tweets
9 Jan
A common debate that shows up in historical analysis 👇.

My 2¢:

Incentives shape ideas far more often than we think. And hence the independent causal role of ideas is vastly over-estimated.

Here’s 3 reasons why I think that.

(Thread)
1) incentives don’t just shape our conscious strategic behaviors, but also which ideas we generate, spread, and come to believe.

2/
This happens because ideas are not, much as we like to pretend, solely selected based on objective truth seeking, model building, and bayesian updating.

3/
Read 21 tweets
30 Sep 19
FWIW:

A 🧵 of 🧵’s, on my 🔑 criticisms of social-science research.

👇
My 🔑 criticism of evolutionary psychology:

(Focused on evolutionary past, overlooking adaptations to *contemporary* context, enabled by learning processes.)

My criticism of “theories” in social-psychology:

(Restatements of intuitions, don’t actually explain the puzzle, fit the facts, or make much sense.)

Read 13 tweets
28 Sep 19
Podcast 👇 provides 👍 summary of happiness lit.

Imo: a lot of nice anecdotes & empirical results.

But the lit has many problems.

Below, I’ll summarize a 🔑 conceptual-flaw, a bundle of methodological-flaws, and a few perverse-incentives at play.

(🧵)

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…
The 🔑 conceptual problem:

The lit nicely documents 😀 returns to baseline after some time. Almost regardless of improvements/decrements in material circumstances.

(And baseline seems to be largely genetically determined.)
That’s the key finding. The central claim in the lit.

What Santos focuses on in her 1st 2 episodes.

What Gilbert focuses on in his book.

Namely, success and failures don’t really matter. Cause we adjust. Working hard, making 💰, isn’t worthwhile b/c it won’t matter in the end.
Read 46 tweets

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