A common debate that shows up in historical analysis 👇.
My 2¢:
Incentives shape ideas far more often than we think. And hence the independent causal role of ideas is vastly over-estimated.
Here’s 3 reasons why I think that.
(Thread)
My 2¢:
Incentives shape ideas far more often than we think. And hence the independent causal role of ideas is vastly over-estimated.
Here’s 3 reasons why I think that.
(Thread)
1) incentives don’t just shape our conscious strategic behaviors, but also which ideas we generate, spread, and come to believe.
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This happens because ideas are not, much as we like to pretend, solely selected based on objective truth seeking, model building, and bayesian updating.
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Rather, often, ideas are tried on for size. And if they are positively reinforced, we hold them more tenaciously.
If an idea helps you win an argument, make friends, or justify an ow selfish-deed, odds are you will hold onto that idea a bit harder.
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If an idea helps you win an argument, make friends, or justify an ow selfish-deed, odds are you will hold onto that idea a bit harder.
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Thus, a lot of times it looks like ideas are playing an independent causal role.
Cause we don’t see these subconscious incentives shaping ideas.
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Cause we don’t see these subconscious incentives shaping ideas.
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Think Martin Luther.
His ideas were impactful.
But would they have been if the German princes didn’t benefit from keeping him alive and his printing presses running? Would so many have taken on lutheranism had the law not so often required taking on religion of local ruler?
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His ideas were impactful.
But would they have been if the German princes didn’t benefit from keeping him alive and his printing presses running? Would so many have taken on lutheranism had the law not so often required taking on religion of local ruler?
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Take the arguments of the American Revolution.
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Would we have argued no taxation without representation if we didn’t already have powerful local governments, rich land owners, and merchant class that could fight for and benefit from independence?
If the sons of liberty didn’t bully people into taking on these ideals?
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If the sons of liberty didn’t bully people into taking on these ideals?
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Maybe. Hard to say. But fact that people deeply held these ideals doesn’t prove they weren’t caused by incentives. Cause the effect of incentives may very well have been on subconsciously shaping the ideals.
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2) A second reason the role of incentives is often missed:
Social scientists often think of incentives very narrowly. As just financial. Or other stuff we consciously pursue.
But those ain’t the only incentives that subconsciously shapes what we come to believe.
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Social scientists often think of incentives very narrowly. As just financial. Or other stuff we consciously pursue.
But those ain’t the only incentives that subconsciously shapes what we come to believe.
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Luther’s protector may have kept German coinage in his realm by putting a stop to indulgences.
But fellow Germans weren’t paid to believe in Lutheranism.
They were threatened with expulsion or death if they didn’t take on the religion of their local rulers.
Not financial.
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But fellow Germans weren’t paid to believe in Lutheranism.
They were threatened with expulsion or death if they didn’t take on the religion of their local rulers.
Not financial.
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Were they even conscious of the role of these threats? Were they like I better become Lutheran so as not to be expelled? Sometimes. But that’s not necessary. They could just not follow through on questions that get them into trouble. For instance.
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I might argue Gandhi took on his pacifist ideals, partly because they worked well for him in S. Africa.
Gaining him success and admiration from his comrades and the world.
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Gaining him success and admiration from his comrades and the world.
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But i wouldn’t argue that Gandhi *consciously* pursued admiration and *strategically* chose pacifism accordingly. Gandhi likely, consciously, just wanted to do good by India. He wasn’t consciously calculating how to get fame. Doesn’t mean it didn’t subconsciously effect him.
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3) A third and final factor that makes people underestimate the impact of incentives on ideas:
Often times the effects of incentives are not straightforward. Hard to disentangle. Not easy to see with the naked eye.
Like the effect of germs on diseases.
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Often times the effects of incentives are not straightforward. Hard to disentangle. Not easy to see with the naked eye.
Like the effect of germs on diseases.
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What’s the incentive for getting angry during a negotiation?
For retaliating when it just risks escalation? For making a big deal out of a mostly symbolic act?
That all sounds contrary to incentives.
Unless you apply game theory.
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For retaliating when it just risks escalation? For making a big deal out of a mostly symbolic act?
That all sounds contrary to incentives.
Unless you apply game theory.
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Game theory is a tool that helps you disentangle the counterintuitive effects incentives have when incentives are interactive.
When coordination matters, when interactions are repeated, when signaling and communication and deception are at hand.
And so on.
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When coordination matters, when interactions are repeated, when signaling and communication and deception are at hand.
And so on.
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All settings where our intuitions aren’t great at tracking the counterintuitive effects of incentives.
Which game theory is needed to elucidate.
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Which game theory is needed to elucidate.
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Easy to blow off the role of incentives just b/c *you* don’t see them.
But a bit unfair to do that when relying on the naked eye. And ignoring pertinent insights from game theory.
Like blowing off the role of germs on diseases b/c *you* refuse to look through a microscope.
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But a bit unfair to do that when relying on the naked eye. And ignoring pertinent insights from game theory.
Like blowing off the role of germs on diseases b/c *you* refuse to look through a microscope.
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Anyhow, incentives have a powerful influence on our genuinely held beliefs.
Far beyond our conscious awareness. Far beyond merely financial incentives. And far beyond what can be gleaned w/o the aid of game theory.
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Far beyond our conscious awareness. Far beyond merely financial incentives. And far beyond what can be gleaned w/o the aid of game theory.
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And as a consequence, imo, historians under-estimate the role of incentives and overestimate the role of ideas on history.
Eom
Eom
