More Hurricanes?

The most destructive hurricanes have become 3x more frequent per century.

The largest hurricane surges have also become 3x more frequent per century.
Two completely independent data sources:
- Hurricane damage.
- Storm surges recorded by tide gauges.
The greater the hurricane magnitude, the greater the trend.
The brightest color here shows the rarest and most extreme events.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Aslak Grinsted

Aslak Grinsted Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @AGrinsted

17 Nov 19
The most destructive hurricanes have become much more frequent.

This result is extremely robust to different input data.
ND of ICAT: an increase of 3.2x per century for ND>22bn.
-This is the data that PielkeJr argues has quality issues. But as you will see it does not matter for the results.
ND of W19: An increase of 2.6x per century (ND>11bn).

- PielkeJr is coauthor on the W19 data set. All of his criticisms fall flat on this data set.
Read 8 tweets
14 Nov 19
The largest hurricane damage events are getting more frequent. -Also in the Weinkle&PielkeJr et al. normalized damage estimates.
They argue that some small events are missing in the early part of the record, -they guestimate their ND value. Unfortunately we can see that this has a profound effect on the distribution which looks sick (pre-1940, ND<1bn).
It is not surprising that the early part of the record looks strange. E.g. They use the damage from "Claudette 2003" to fill-in the missing values for 18 other storms.
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!