1/ Beijing sees an opportunity for global hegemony, admist a US that is "less engaged abroad, more divided at home, and uninterested in pandemic management or economic competitiveness"
Fascinating @ForeignPolicy article (foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/12/chi…) and thread below by @RushDoshi 👇
Fascinating @ForeignPolicy article (foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/12/chi…) and thread below by @RushDoshi 👇
https://twitter.com/RushDoshi/status/1315714366839435264
2/ Doshi reports that Beijing sees Trumpism and Brexit as accelerating the decline of the west:
"Beijing was shocked that the world’s most powerful democracies were withdrawing from the international order they had helped erect."
"Beijing was shocked that the world’s most powerful democracies were withdrawing from the international order they had helped erect."
3/ US failures with Covid have "reinforced preexisting Chinese views on American dysfunction and decline" and have given Beijing convidence to be "less concerned about the implications of its repression in HK and the damage done by its increasingly off-putting public diplomacy."
4/ But there is an important caveat, as Doshi himself says:
"[Beijing's] overconfidence may be unfounded, particularly as China faces a demographic slowdown, diplomatic setbacks, and a middle-income trap."
"[Beijing's] overconfidence may be unfounded, particularly as China faces a demographic slowdown, diplomatic setbacks, and a middle-income trap."
5/ "[Beijing's confidence] may also be somewhat artificial, a product of a party line reproduced in key texts and academic commentaries that resembles propaganda rather than objective analysis"
Don't trust the Chinese leadership to have rigorously debated this.
Don't trust the Chinese leadership to have rigorously debated this.
6/ Doshi describes as the Chinese leadership getting "high on their own supply," which could "shape Chinese strategy in ways that might be risky."
https://twitter.com/RushDoshi/status/1315803577722470400
7/ And we've hardly seen Beijing succeed geopolitically. If anything, they have driven middle powers together against Chinese hegimony, awoken the US, and driven India and other non-aligned partners toward the US.
8/ Therefore, one could say that Beijing's attempts to seize the spotlight have backfired spectacularly.
Remember the recent Pew survey results? (Which admittedly have US favourability plumetting along with China's)
Remember the recent Pew survey results? (Which admittedly have US favourability plumetting along with China's)
https://twitter.com/Alex_at_ACHK/status/1315474258454368256
9/ It's easy to say that 'China has a plan for X' - they are great with coming up with plans.
But they are horrible at executing on them: ie the pledge to be carbon-neutral by the year 2060 is laughable for many reasons.
But they are horrible at executing on them: ie the pledge to be carbon-neutral by the year 2060 is laughable for many reasons.
https://twitter.com/TVietor08/status/1310592113453662208
10/ The US is not in terminal decline. If Obama's presidency was any indication, a Biden presidency may be able to recoup much lost ground in terms of global favourability.
https://twitter.com/Alex_at_ACHK/status/1315474271209164801
11/ But the US definitely needs to invest in a domestic revival. Doshi closes by saying that the US needs a policythat "proves to Beijing that the United States is not in terminal decline."
Bingo. @HillaryClinton wrote about that here:
Bingo. @HillaryClinton wrote about that here:
https://twitter.com/Alex_at_ACHK/status/1315818802618171392
12/ Anyway, this is a fascinating topic that promises to dominate that 21st century.
I'll be pre-ordering @RushDoshi's book once its available on Kindle:
amazon.com/Long-Game-Stra…
I'll be pre-ordering @RushDoshi's book once its available on Kindle:
amazon.com/Long-Game-Stra…
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