Everyone now knows about the big bull Harshad Mehta (HM)
But did you know DMart founder RKD bet heavily against the big bull in those days? He was joined by two others – Raju (chartist) and RJ, who was a young amateur trader then
Together, they were called the ‘Triple-R’ group
HM was already surfing large waves in Indian stock market. The growing clout of 'triple-Rs' gradually launched them into the orbit of HM.
Triple-Rs learned tricks to short stocks from the original short seller – The Black Cobra i.e. Manu Manek.
HM and 'triple-Rs' first locked horns over Apollo Tyres. HM was long in the stock, but triple-Rs could not digest such high valuations for the co.
Learning from the Cobra, triple-Rs went on shorting the stock, without really knowing the source of HM's endless funding.
HM went on shoveling in the money and triple-Rs continued to bleed every single day as the stock price surged.
It came to a point when triple-Rs could not take the losses anymore. They exited the position cutting huge losses.
RKD is believed to have said “Agar Harshad saat din aur apni position hold kar leta, toh mujhe kathora leke road par utarna padta”
For two long years, there was a long war between Harshad Mehta and the triple-Rs.
Not many know this: RKD was a punter earlier. He came too close to bankruptcy during the Harshad Mehta bull run. He then turned into a long-term investor after the Harshad Mehta Scam in 1992.
Later, he bailed out many investors in the aftermath of Ketan Parekh scam (2000-01).
However, he then became inactive in the market between 2001 and 2004 as he was busy setting up Avenue Supermarts.
Today, RKD is worth ~$15 bn and RJ worth $2.7 bn.
Now, RJ is known as the big bull in the Indian stock market.
/end
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Experts say, tech is in bubble zone, smart money is better, value is outperforming.
But what markets have shown - 1. Asset light > asset heavy 2. Passive > active 3. Growth > value
Pick markets over experts, any day.
No correlation between economy and market historically. Markets are predictors, not reflectors. Positive correlation is strong 3-4 quarters ahead.
Currently, markets saying economy will bounce back swiftly. Second wave might not happen. But, markets could be wrong too. Let's see
We're all stupid relative to what market does. Don't over reach; respect the market. Worst is when you double down when you try to over reach. We all need to be humble relative to what the market can do to us.
As @morganhousel says, scars of 9/11 are still felt at all airports around the world. Shoes off, jackets off, belts off, hands up, empty your bottle!
Wounds of #COVIDー19 will heal, but what about the scars? What will change forever in the world? Some things that come to mind:
1. Masks an acceptable norm in crowded places, social environments 2. Fever check at airports/borders, proof of medical records in case fever detected 3. Habit of frequent hand washing / hand sanitization 4. UV sanitisers at airports to disinfect currency notes, mobile phones
5. Permanent isolation capacities at hospitals a regulatory requirement 6. Bigger emergency funds at household, state and national level. 7. Decline in risk-taking ability in equities, esp younger generation experiencing their first severe bear market.
1. #Coronavirus will be positive for India given lower global interest rates, lower crude oil, and higher urgency by companies to now diversify outside China. Coronavirus is an opportunity to buy cheaper.
2. See very 'deep value' in utilities, PSUs, few corporate banks, and good value in some engineering cos. Last seen in 2001-03. Near-term pain is an essential part of deep value bets, but expect to outperform over longer time. Roughly 50% of HDFC's portfolio is in deep value.