Thread by @studentactivism

This polling really elegantly illustrates something I've been thinking a lot about the state of the race as it pertains to the electoral college. (Super quick thread to follow.)

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1316006191529689092

The states and districts in blue on this map are those where Biden is leading by 7.5 points or more. The states in red are those where Trump is leading by 2 points or more (plus Iowa, which we'll get to in a second.) Now look at the brown states.

Every one of the brown states on the map is at least 11 electoral votes, and Biden is at 259 without any of them. That means that if Biden holds the blue states, a victory in ANY ONE of the brown states gives him the White House.

Let's say the polls are off. Let's say voter suppression works in a state or two. Let's say Trump convinces the courts to flip a close state, or a state leg puts their thumb on the scale. If Biden wins the blue states, Trump still needs to SWEEP the brown ones, or he loses.

It's not beyond the realm of possibility, of course, but it's a REALLY tough climb.

And here's the other thing about this map: It means that there's a VERY long list of states where your help in these final weeks is absolutely needed, and potentially decisive. Just pick any brown state. If we win it, and we hold the blues, we win. Period.

Freaking out about the upper Midwest? (I don't blame you, honestly.) Concentrate on Michigan or Wisconsin, and you help to make the premise of the map a reality. That matters a huge amount too.

And if there's a senate race, or a state leg campaign, or a House contest you're interested in across any of the brown states, lend a hand with that, and you help Biden win the state by boosting turnout.

(I promised to come back to Iowa: It's close, but because it only has 6 EVs, it's unlikely to be decisive presidentially. But it's also got a senate race that's looking promising, so yeah, give @GreenfieldIowa a hand there if you like.)

THERE ARE SO MANY WAYS TO KNOCK TRUMP OUT OF THIS. Any of them could work. Any of them could make the difference. Any of them could leave you feeling like you were the reason he lost. Just pick one, any one, and get at it.

(BTW, it's implied by the Silver tweet, but to reiterate for folks with screenreaders or colorblindness issues, the brown states are OH, PA, NC, GA, FL, AZ, and TX.)