Keir Starmer today makes Labour the party of lockdown. Says the covid figures are stark and the government does not have a credible plan.

Says we need "circuit breaker" - a short period of national restrictions.
Starmer "There's no longer time to give this PM the benefit of the doubt. Another course is needed. That's why I'm calling for a 2-3 circuit break in England."

Says it would NOT mean schools closing but should run across halfterm
Says a circuit break would require "extensive support" for jobs and businesses.

Starmer says "it was not inevitable but it is necessary."
Tells the PM: "Act now, break the cycle. If you do you will have the votes. You wont need to balance" between different Tory factions.

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More from @SamCoatesSky

13 Oct
Tory revolt:

Government wanted smallest number of votes tonight - everything bundled as one

BUT some have been separated out by the Speaker

AND it looks as some Tories are to vote against motion 9, the retrospective vote on curfew / fines / public spaces
Speaker Eleanor Laing opening debate: “Motions 3-9 to be debated together but I can assure the house the q will be put separately at the end of the debate”
Motion 9 below

Refers to this SI

legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1029…
Read 5 tweets
29 Sep
So a big announcement today about skills shortages - and it’s not the one about to be given by the PM

A red warning light from the official body which looks at skills shortages about the lack of people available for the social care sector gov.uk/government/new…
This is what the Migration Advisory Committee says about care workers and nursing assistants - vital during a pandemic

They warn of “stark consequences of low wages in social care”

All this before the end of free movement at the end of the year
Even though we are about to experience a huge national spike in unemployment, the MAC warns that the social care sector will “struggle to recruit” if wages are not increased “as a matter of urgency”
Read 9 tweets
27 Sep
Look at this from Friday’s Public Health England Covid report

See how in just the last 2 weeks, the number of cases in schools and other educational settings have risen very sharply

(But notice uptick in workplace infections too...)
This graph shows that primary and secondary schools make up bulk of confirmed Covid clusters or outbreaks.

Universities still in process of returning

(This graph also being highlighted by @rowlsmanthorpe)
Here is the complete Public Health England watchlist

Is your local authority on it?
Read 5 tweets
22 Sep
5 things to watch for in Boris Johnson’s coronavirus statement - my analysis ahead of the Commons debate

Here 👇 news.sky.com/story/coronavi…
Things to watch for 1/

What is the evidence that back to work is causing higher transmission? Sources claiming it exists Image
Things to watch for 2/

What’s the fate of the “circuit break” pushed by Sage and Spi-m scientists last week Image
Read 6 tweets
21 Sep
The grim outlook for Coronavirus

Key slide 1 - growth among 20-29 year olds Image
Coronavirus slide 2

If doubling occurred every seven days there could be 49,000 new cases on Oct 13 Image
Coronavirus slide 3

Just 8% of people overall have developed antibodies Image
Read 7 tweets
19 Sep
Latest YouGov Voting Intention

* Labour draws level with Tories for first time since June 2019

Con 40 (-2)
Lab 40 (+3)
LD 6 -
BXP 3 -

16-17 Sep (changes since 8-9 Sept)
Interesting things in YouGov data

* Still little evidence Labour are winning back Tory votes (just 5% of Tory 2019 vote switched to Labour)

* All over 50s clearly for Johnson, with a landslide (61 Con, 21 Lab) for Johnson amongst over 65s
YouGov leadership ratings

Who would make best PM

Johnson 30% (-1)
Starmer 35% (+1)
Not sure / don’t know 35% -

Sept 16-17
Read 5 tweets

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