Thread by @karamballes

1/ Thread: Going through the latest SAGE releases, some interesting bits to tease out of it, will write this in bursts over the next day.

The main meeting which begins with saying the effect of education settings opening has only just begun, suggests more impact to come

2/ Lots of people already highlighting things from the main meeting, instead I'm going to focus on the paper on Further Education a there isn't one on schools snd these are the same age students in secondary 6th forms

gov.uk/government/pub…

3/ At various points it does reference previous documents on secondaries, and some comments generalise education settings.

Begins by stating outbreaks in FE are highly likely and risk amplifying local transmission due to creating connectivity,as schools do between homes and work

4/ (Medium confidence) no strong evidence FE students transmit less than adults. 16+ should be considered adults for covid measures

(High confidence) Higher proportion of asymptomatic cases means outbreaks are harder to detect, as they will be in schools

5/ National strategy for mass testing is vital due to high proportion of asymptomatic spread. Mass testing programmes should be trialled in FE as a compliment to TTI.

This should have been in place before term started, its what the NEU are demanding. See @SaferSchoolsNE

6/ (High confidence) Delivering activities online is a key to mitigating transmission. Only activities that can't be done remotely should be done in person, with a range of other measures to reduce risk.

7/ Big one here
(High confidence) Super spreading outbreaks are associated with crowded indoor spaces.
(Medium confidence) Aerosol transmission may be an important transmission route.

Ventilation and social distancing are vital

8/ Face coverings are an important mitigation against droplet and aerosol transmission where social distancing is difficult or where ventilation is poor.
Assume this is where DfE FE advice was updated, yet they still haven't bothered to update school advice for aerosols.

9/ Unlike the government, SAGE does point out that there are staff and students who are at risk of severe consequences. Points out again FE students are likely to be as infectious as adults.

10/ Clearly calls for collaboration between management and staff to ensure the right measures are implemented well. So those employers refusing to work with unions, you arent helping and really should start listening.

11/ Amplification of Transmission: Outbreaks linked to FE likely.
This doesn't match the government rhetoric that schools and colleges are safe.

Also points out that Staff have an increased risk of infection in ANY education setting!

12/ So SAGE now accept all education workers are at increased risk of infection, also recognises that low transmission rates in schools in June/July are likely because student numbers were so low.

13/ There's a lot on asymptomatic cases being a key concern in FE, this will be as much or more of an issue for education settings for younger age groups.

Asymptomatic cases are likely to facilitate super spreading events, as are classroom conditions as mentioned earlier

14/ More detail on how FE can amplify local transmission.
Recognises the wide variety of FE students and courses. Those on part time courses can be transferring infections to and from other settings.

15/ Points out that as many FE students are same or similar age to secondary students much of the advice for both settings has cross over and relevance.

However DfE has ignored some of the FE advice and certainly not applied it to secondaries

16/ Having already pointed out that outbreaks are likely, SAGE say providers should plan for outbreaks, particularly if local infection rates increase, many areas have seen infections quadruple since this advice was written.

Government said outbreaks were unlikely, they lied

17/ Test and Trace is vital to all settings, mentioned how SAGE has repeatedly set out the evidence for this to goverment, reads with a sense of frustration
Test and trace is one of the government's greatest failures of the crisis
Shows 80%+ of contacts must be chased,its 60% atm

18/ Government were told that universities are high risk settings, yet they did nothing to mitigate the risk of universities returning.

Speed of testing and results can make a big difference in cutting transmission, test and trace turn around of results in decline for a month.

19/ Interesting point here that applied for schools, if groups aren't completely separated then this should result in the majority of an organisation isolating, this isn't happening in schools meaning asymptomatic transmission is continuing

20/ Also raises the impact of poverty. Adherence to isolation is three times lower for those with an income below £20k particularly private contract cleaners (who are likely to have insecure work)

Insecure, low paid work is a public health issue that needs addressing

21/ Government was told aerosol transmission is a major issue in poorly ventilated classrooms leading to super spreading events, this should apply to all schools, also lists certain activities which are associated with even higher risk and requires mitigation.

22/ Ventilation, some interesting advice here to consider for schools preparing for winter. Suggests fallow time between sessions and that air cleaning devices could be essential. Funding for all schools please @GavinWilliamson

23/ Face coverings should be worn in classrooms where social distancing is difficult. So this is the majority of education settings in the country?

18/ Only about 12-35% of people with symptoms go for testing.
"Wait and see approach" to having symptoms is not acceptable. Even the mildest of symptoms should be testing.

Sets out requirements of a national plan.

24/ That's the FE advice concluded, hopefully some important evidence to back campaigning efforts by @NEUnion and also @ucu, @DrJoGrady you might find this thread useful, I attended a few UCU branch meetings as a guest speaker in early summer .

25/ Finally a quick look at the new guidence for those in at risk groups.

Its not good enough, it doesn't do enough to protect workers from employers that don't do enough to take safety seriously.

This is for the very high risk category ⬇️

26/ We all know CovidSecure isn't actually secure, looking at this advice if it doesn't take aerosol transmission seriously then its not secure at all.

However it still means the weak vulnerable guidence will cause conflict between employees and some employers

27/ Even in very high risk areas at risk groups still go to work if its Covid secure, unless its a school we don't do covid secure, we do our own thing without social distancing or masks.

Not good enough.

28/28 Summary:
Goverment were warned education settings could amplify local transmission with asymptomatic cases,aerosol transmission,and poor ventilation capable of creating super spreading outbreaks

DfE schools guidence still hasn't been updated to take into account aerosols.

Previous thread on lack of reporting on outbreaks and weak isolation policies in schools

https://twitter.com/karamballes/status/1315067136394625032?s=19