Thread by @fimiletoks

Please show us your methodology. The CPI basket and the weights / share of household budget. You cannot 'accurately' predict our inflation based on black market fx rate. 56.5% of Nigeria's household income is spent on food. Yam, cassava, rice, maize, millet, meat..

https://twitter.com/steve_hanke/status/1316038485418024960

A lot of this items don't have dollar component. They are locally sourced so you cannot based this 56.5% weight on black market rate. 51% of Nigerians live in the rural communities and majority of them grow what they eat with limited exposure to black market fx.

Fuel and light takes 5%. Fuel importation is pegged at the CBN rate not the black market rate.

Education 6% - NBS statistics show that most Nigerians are in public school system. The exposure to fx rate comes with overseas schooling / private schools in urban areas.

Rent 5%

Healthcare takes 6.1% with fx exposure on drugs and some consumables. Malaria has the highest morbidity according to the NBS figures. 46% of household treatment cost especially in the rural communities. Treatment in some cases is subsidised with govt intervention on drugs.

6% household expenditure on transportation - this inflation can be controlled by mass transportation programs. High exposure fx because of car parts, engines, petrol etc but it can still be controlled.

Other services follow the same course.

While 11% may be a little bit far from the actual. You cannot use aboki fx or black market rate to predict our inflation.

It is also ridiculous to assume that our team of bankers at the CBN, the economic team and the ministry of finance will put a figure out of the hat.

You guys keep expecting the worst thing to happen, you won't see it. Keep wishing...