Please show us your methodology. The CPI basket and the weights / share of household budget. You cannot 'accurately' predict our inflation based on black market fx rate. 56.5% of Nigeria's household income is spent on food. Yam, cassava, rice, maize, millet, meat..
A lot of this items don't have dollar component. They are locally sourced so you cannot based this 56.5% weight on black market rate. 51% of Nigerians live in the rural communities and majority of them grow what they eat with limited exposure to black market fx.
Fuel and light takes 5%. Fuel importation is pegged at the CBN rate not the black market rate.

Education 6% - NBS statistics show that most Nigerians are in public school system. The exposure to fx rate comes with overseas schooling / private schools in urban areas.

Rent 5%
Healthcare takes 6.1% with fx exposure on drugs and some consumables. Malaria has the highest morbidity according to the NBS figures. 46% of household treatment cost especially in the rural communities. Treatment in some cases is subsidised with govt intervention on drugs.
6% household expenditure on transportation - this inflation can be controlled by mass transportation programs. High exposure fx because of car parts, engines, petrol etc but it can still be controlled.

Other services follow the same course.
While 11% may be a little bit far from the actual. You cannot use aboki fx or black market rate to predict our inflation.

It is also ridiculous to assume that our team of bankers at the CBN, the economic team and the ministry of finance will put a figure out of the hat.
You guys keep expecting the worst thing to happen, you won't see it. Keep wishing...

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More from @fimiletoks

13 Oct
Quick check at other issues, 3 days ago I went on a tour of a private hospital in Lekki. During the tour we started discussing about healthcare investment and infrastructure in Africa. Mediclinic chain in South Africa, Aga Khan hospital in Nairobi and Korle bu in Ghana.
Nobody mentioned UCH. Korle bu Hospital in Ghana is the pride of West Africa, it is the centre of excellence. Even though UCH which became a teaching hospital about the same time 1950 - 1960 is now a shadow of itself. Korle bu over the years has expanded from 200 beds - 2000 beds
Multi specialty centre. The FG of Nigeria has used subsidy and underfunding to kill UCH. Rather than explore universal insurance coverage and a PPP arrangement, they are fixated on an idea that cost even though unsustainable must be low. Image
Read 7 tweets
3 Oct
If you don't know the name of your LG chairman and the amount disbursed from Jan 2020 - August 2000, you have no business talking about restructuring.
Abuja, Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom
Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue LG allocation for August.
Read 11 tweets
2 Oct
Out of Nigeria’s 108,000km of surfaced roads the FG has just 32,000km or 18%. 82% belongs to states and LGs. If the FG fixes the 32,000km / 18% Nigeria will still have terrible roads.

Out of the over 2000 government hospitals in Nigeria, the FG has just less than 75.
We can go on and a do the same analysis for the educational sector. How many schools belong to the FG? True development will come at the state and local govt level.
No country develops from the centre. It's done at state or provincial level.
How do we surmount the problem of road infrastructure and healthcare? The FG cannot do it! The state government must find a means of fixing the infrastructural, healthcare and educational gap. I wrote a thread on trusts and private sector involvement in infrastructure, health
Read 6 tweets
1 Oct
Nigeria is one of the cheapest places to live in the world. Only Uganda, Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia have lower cost of living in Africa. You can check the data from different website. However we have a significantly low purchasing power index. This is the challenge. ImageImageImage
Purchasing power index is associated with income and productivity of the citizenry. With our population size, we have to improve productivity. Focusing on income / wages with the NLC mindset without significant increase in productivity will yield zero results.
Productivity is dependent on a stable economy, structured markets and a skilled population. Monthly salaries doesn't encourage productivity. Per hourly wage will change the dynamics. The vulcanizer on my street makes between 3000 - 5000 Naira daily.
Read 5 tweets
1 Oct
Nigerians, understand these concepts

- minimum wage
- cost of living index
- purchasing power parity

Don't just assume that increase in wages will make you comfortable. Cost of living and purchasing power parity are stronger factors.

#NigeriaAt60 #NigeriaIndependence
You can earn 400k monthly in Lagos and you will be dead broke every month with no savings when compared to someone who earns N200,000 monthly in Ilorin or Oshogbo. What 200k will get you in terms of housing, food, transportation 400k won't be enough in Lagos.
That concept is called 'cost of living' and it is responsible for urban poverty and slum dwellers.
Purchasing Power Parity analyses compares different countries' currencies and the basket of goods you can get with them.
What will you get with $100 in a grocery store in NewYork
Read 4 tweets
1 Oct
Who told you this bullshit? Minimum wage in Saudi is 3000 riyals approx $800.
Rent for 1 bedroom in Saudi without govt subsidy is between $750 - $1500 monthly. You will spend at least $30 daily to eat. Cost of food is as expensive as what you get in Europe.
You will spend close to $1 per day on bottled water. Bus tickets are cheap but taxis will cost you your arm and leg. Doctor visit will set you back by $60. The country is running on subsidy, they make 10 times the amount we make on oil with 34m people.
There citizens are more responsible.
Read 4 tweets

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