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Kevin Cate Profile picture
@KevinCate
Oct 13, 2020 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
I’ve got some more Florida turnout news. Y’all into that or no?

If so, drop a like & follow this chain.
Democratic turnout rates are higher than Republicans in every single county in Florida. 67 out of 67.

Want more? Drop another like.
Out of the 1,782,663 mail ballots returned & reported, there are 386,799 voters who didn't vote in 2016.

Of these new voters, registered @FlaDems are leading registered Republicans by 99,842.

DEM: 189,139
GOP: 89,297
N/3/I: 108,363

Shall I continue? Drop another like.
As of today, registered @FlaDems lead GOP voters by an unprecedented 384,353.

At this point in '16, it was GOP +7,063.

Many are dismissing this landslide level enthusiasm gap as a result of vote method shifting. Drop another like & I'll prove them wrong.
First, it's not true that @realDonaldTrump is discouraging mail in Florida. He's promoting it here at his super spreader rallies, TV ads, & everywhere else.

Second, we can track vote method shifters.

It's 37% of Democrats.
And 25.6% of GOP.

So even if we remove shifters...
The enthusiasm gap would still be @FlaDems +15.

But we don't remove anything, because democracy. So the enthusiasm gap in Florida today is actually DEM +22.

In 2016 right now it was GOP +1.
Think about that.

One more like & I'll wrap this up.
It's okay to be optimistic & still work like hell to elect @JoeBiden & progressives. The only reason there's any good data to share is because you're working like hell.

Keep it up & Florida will still be close-ish, but it'll be an early E-Night. Thanks for the likes & follows.
And here is a .gif(t) for following.

Big thanks to my data partner @FLDataGuy.

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More from @KevinCate

Kevin Cate Profile picture
Feb 19, 2023
If you have an iPhone, you can (and should!) make winning campaign ads.

I'll show you how in five minutes.
btw this candidate (@JeremyMatlowTLH) was outspent by more than 2-1 and still won.

Now go make stuff that makes a difference!
After I shot this video, Apple did update cinematic mode to allow 4k at 24 FPS, so please, for the love of art, change your settings. This is what that looks like.
Read 4 tweets
Kevin Cate Profile picture
Nov 3, 2022
3,581,580 Floridians have voted.

DEM: 1,339,957
GOP: 1,556,259
NPA/O: 685,364

GOP is +216,302.

At this point in 2020:
DEM + 161,362

At this point in 2018:
GOP + 58,531
.@FlaDems running behind 2020 performance is in contrast to: AZ, CO, GA, IA, MI, NC, NE, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OH, PA, TX, VA, WI, where Democrats are outperforming 2020 early/mail.

(This stat by @SimonWDC)
933,256 Florida Democrats have a ballot, but have not returned it yet (we are at the point where if voting by mail, you should drop it off). GOP voters have 618,797.
Read 5 tweets
Kevin Cate Profile picture
Jul 17, 2022
Just met a man at a Ruby Tuesday off I-75 who sold all his possessions except what he could fit in his truck and drove 19 hours straight from DeMoines, Iowa to just outside of Lake City, Florida.

That was about 15 years ago…
That’s a dramatic move so I asked him if it was about a woman.

He said, no, but there is a woman at the end of this story.

This was about family.
He had moved from Georgia to Iowa with his brother and one day they got into an argument about he can’t remember what, so he picked up, drove to Florida with nothing, and they didn’t talk for the next six years.

Until he met a woman.
Read 8 tweets
Kevin Cate Profile picture
Jul 9, 2022
Saw this man sitting by himself at a Waffle House in Midway, Florida.

So I said hello and asked him what he was doing with that money.
He told me that since 2014, he’s been handing out $1s and $5s to strangers, here and elsewhere.

So of course, I ask him about it.
He said he’s given away more than $13,000 to strangers, kids, and people he meets at Waffle House (his favorite) and elsewhere.

And they all come with that note you see in the picture. He copies and cut these out every few days.

Obviously, I ask about the note.
Read 5 tweets
Kevin Cate Profile picture
Jul 7, 2022
By the end of June 2018, @FlaDems #flgov candidates had spent $13,829,726 on TV, or $3.5 million more than Nikki and Charlie have on hand now — combined.

This primary is super underfunded.
All social/earned/word of mouth.
Crist only has ~$2.7 million more than Nikki, or less than Chris King had spent on TV by early/mid July.

It's actually shocking it's that close. Charlie is the greatest fundraiser I've ever been around. Our (Nikki) original primary prediction had him +$10-13 million advantage.
The difference in cash is negligible — almost nothing in a statewide. Really not ideal for either candidate leading into a general. However, Nikki will benefit from the "comeback" narrative because media/establishment will be surprised. That will help her intro to general.
Read 4 tweets
Kevin Cate Profile picture
Apr 26, 2022
A little perspective on the Florida Democratic primary for Governor and the general election environment.

Yes, a thread.
I cannot stress enough how tough of an environment the general will be. I've worked pretty hard on two pretty high-profile generals here (Gillum '18/Crist '14).

Biden is -11 in Florida.
(Morning Consult)

This time in:
2014: Obama was +/-0
2018: Trump was -11
(Gallup)
Obviously my friend (and longtime client) Charlie Crist is running for governor again. So in 2014, he started + double digits against Rick Scott. That's crazy high for Florida.

At this point in 2014, Crist was +6 RCP average. And Rick Scott had spent $6.5 million on TV.
Read 17 tweets

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