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Kevin Cate Profile picture
Kevin Cate
@KevinCate
Writer, director, ad maker. Former @BarackObama spox.
2 subscribers
Feb 19, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
If you have an iPhone, you can (and should!) make winning campaign ads.

I'll show you how in five minutes. btw this candidate (@JeremyMatlowTLH) was outspent by more than 2-1 and still won.

Now go make stuff that makes a difference!
Nov 3, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
3,581,580 Floridians have voted.

DEM: 1,339,957
GOP: 1,556,259
NPA/O: 685,364

GOP is +216,302.

At this point in 2020:
DEM + 161,362

At this point in 2018:
GOP + 58,531 .@FlaDems running behind 2020 performance is in contrast to: AZ, CO, GA, IA, MI, NC, NE, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OH, PA, TX, VA, WI, where Democrats are outperforming 2020 early/mail.

(This stat by @SimonWDC)
Jul 17, 2022 • 8 tweets • 1 min read
Just met a man at a Ruby Tuesday off I-75 who sold all his possessions except what he could fit in his truck and drove 19 hours straight from DeMoines, Iowa to just outside of Lake City, Florida.

That was about 15 years ago… That’s a dramatic move so I asked him if it was about a woman.

He said, no, but there is a woman at the end of this story.

This was about family.
Jul 9, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Saw this man sitting by himself at a Waffle House in Midway, Florida.

So I said hello and asked him what he was doing with that money. He told me that since 2014, he’s been handing out $1s and $5s to strangers, here and elsewhere.

So of course, I ask him about it.
Jul 7, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
By the end of June 2018, @FlaDems #flgov candidates had spent $13,829,726 on TV, or $3.5 million more than Nikki and Charlie have on hand now — combined.

This primary is super underfunded.
All social/earned/word of mouth. Crist only has ~$2.7 million more than Nikki, or less than Chris King had spent on TV by early/mid July.

It's actually shocking it's that close. Charlie is the greatest fundraiser I've ever been around. Our (Nikki) original primary prediction had him +$10-13 million advantage.
Apr 26, 2022 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
A little perspective on the Florida Democratic primary for Governor and the general election environment.

Yes, a thread. I cannot stress enough how tough of an environment the general will be. I've worked pretty hard on two pretty high-profile generals here (Gillum '18/Crist '14).

Biden is -11 in Florida.
(Morning Consult)

This time in:
2014: Obama was +/-0
2018: Trump was -11
(Gallup)
Mar 14, 2022 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
Been waiting more than three years for this to drop. Looks like we may finally find out where Ron DeSantis got the foreign money he used against @AndrewGillum in 2018.

Russian oligarch Andrey Muraviev. The day after the election, the Russian Oligarch, allegedly, was most thrilled about the "victory in Florida." And was ready for his kickback.

justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/r…
Jan 27, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The “white discomfort ❄️” bill passed another Florida GOP controlled committee yesterday, but not without this powerful testimony from Rep. @RamonAlexander.

Putting the full thing here so future generations, if allowed, can see who fought against whitewashing history. Thank you to everyone sharing this and following @RamonAlexander. Because Republicans control the entire legislative process in Florida, all we have are our voices.
Sep 13, 2021 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
Moments ago, @GovRonDeSantis let someone stand behind the Seal of Florida and say: "The vaccine changes your RNA."

It does not. No corrections. No shame.

Facts here: cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…) This misinformation press conference is also posted on @Facebook. Assuming it will get flagged soon.

facebook.com/GovRonDeSantis…
Oct 23, 2020 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Time for a little breakdown on Florida mail and early voting numbers, if you're into that. First, here is a .gif of the first 4,771,956 votes cast here including when and where voters have been voting.

Breaks down like this:

DEM: 2,110,366
GOP: 1,682,849
N/3/I: 978,741
Oct 20, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
We’ve got a fairly conservative internal model for how we think NPA voters may be splitting in Florida.

Any interest in those numbers? You sure?

Same model predicted Clinton +1.09 in 2016. Of course, we've refined it since then. And our 2016 prediction was a lot closer than most.

Still sure?
Oct 15, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Florida mail vote update 10.15.20:

🚨@FlaDems +420,119🚨
(+17,444 from yesterday)

DEM: 1,043,514 (40.5% returned)
GOP: 623,395 (35)
N/3/I: 425,222 (31.7)

TOTAL: 2,092,131 Mail ballots not yet returned/reported:

DEM: 1,532,064
GOP: 1,157,483
N/3/I: 914,574

PSA: Return your mail ballots by USPS (sign the back) or drop your mail ballot off at your local SOE's office.
Oct 14, 2020 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
Saw Trump is still airing the Dr. Fauci ad, despite Dr. Fauci's objections. Per usual, it's basically all stock footage with actors. Drop a like and I'll show you that, plus a heart warming ending. I promise it's worth it. Here is the ad.
(I muted it for you, you're welcome).

It opens with some 1980's era "business closed" footage and includes some nondescript "medical research."

But let's focus on the "real people."

Like to keep it going and see where they bought it.
Oct 14, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Florida mail vote update 10.14.20:

@FlaDems +402,675
(+18,334 from yesterday)

DEM: 967,036 (37.2% returned)
GOP: 564,361 (31.8)
N/3/I: 385,523 (29)

TOTAL: 1,916,920 Mail ballots yet to be returned & processed:

DEM: 1,596,355
GOP: 1,206,246
N/3/I: 943,138

Early voting begins 10.19.20.

Combined mail/early/e voters remaining*:

DEM: 4,236,759
GOP: 4,455,838
N/3/I: 3,455,713

*9/1/20 registration data
Oct 13, 2020 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
I’ve got some more Florida turnout news. Y’all into that or no?

If so, drop a like & follow this chain. Democratic turnout rates are higher than Republicans in every single county in Florida. 67 out of 67.

Want more? Drop another like.
Oct 11, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Florida mail vote update 10.11.20:

🚨@FlaDems + 358,265🚨
(+16,982 from yesterday)

DEM: 841,355 (33.2% returned)
GOP: 483,090 (27.7)
N/3/I: 327,943 (25.2)

TOTAL: 1,652,388 This far from E-Day 2016, 316,149 Floridians had voted & GOP held a +6,521 advantage.

Dems went into E-Day +88k.

Final was GOP +55k b/c 31.5% of GOPs waited until E-Day to vote (+157k more than Dems) —h/t @electionsmith.

Final '16 by Reg:
DEM: 38.1%
GOP: 38.7
NPA: 20.7
Sep 15, 2020 • 15 tweets • 7 min read
Guys, literally everything @realDonaldTrump does is fake. He hired models for his announcement. But, since we're talking about stock pictures & footage, allow me... Here is the last commercial I've seen in Florida — touting the "Great American Comeback." Watch it on mute. And then I'll show you how they made it.
Aug 1, 2018 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Rough 2018 TV spending numbers in #flgov primary:

Greene: $13,495,158
Levine: $10,685,644
Graham: $5,402,488
King: $3,877,897
Gillum: $98,490

But not all TV is equal. In gross rating points... Broadcast TV gross rating points through this week:

Levine: 33,390
Greene: 32,990
King: 21,657
Graham: 9,490
Gillum: 0

What this means is...