is an iconic business which I've followed for years and up until recently, I didn't like its customer concentration and reliance on the public sector. However, after reading the company's S-1, press releases and...
...discussions with @cperruna , I changed my mind and picked up shares.
appears to be a solid business with a durable 'moat' i.e. customer switching costs, network effects, brand intangibles and mgt. has guided for 40%+ revenue growth in '20 and 30%+ growth in '21...
...Currently, 47% of its revenue comes from the public sector and 60% of the business is done overseas. is now focusing on expanding its business within the private sector.
In terms of valuation, in my view the business is currently trading at a reasonable price tag and..
...it has ~US$1.5 billion cash on its balance-sheet. Finally, the co-Founders are top-notch and they have 'skin in the game'.
In order to fund this investment and add to , I've booked my gains in (YOY growth will slow significantly from next year onwards).
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Due to my heavy tech exposure, over the past few months, I've spent a lot of time thinking about the '00-'02 tech bust.
After all, COVID 'winners' have now become mainstream and valuations have shot through the roof; so I'm...
2)...naturally concerned about what may be lurking around the corner.
After considering all factors, I've come to the conclusion that although we are in an 'incipient bubble' the party isn't likely to end anytime soon due to two reasons...
3) First and foremost, unlike early 2000, the Fed is currently extremely accommodative and creating hundreds of billions of new dollars. Furthermore, unlike early 2000, the yield curve is currently normal (not inverted).
"Human beings have overrun the world. We are replacing the wild with the tame. Our planet is headed for disaster!" - Sir David Attenborough
"Even the biggest, most awful things humanity has ever done, civilisations have done pale to significance when you think what could be around the corner - deserts have been spreading, there could be whole areas of the world where people could no longer safely live" - Attenborough
The naysayers now saying that "I got lucky this year"!
If 22 years of investing/living through prior cycles, learning from past mistakes, continuous learning and months of backtesting to fine-tune my hedging strategy can be described as 'luck' - then yes guilty as charged.
Haters before the crash -
"He is crazy for owning these bubble stocks which will crash hard during the next bear-market."
Haters after the crash -
"He just got lucky, just happened to hedge in time and somehow owned those stocks which benefited from COVID. He is clueless."
A no. of people have asked me why my portfolio didn't fare better between early '18 and early '20?
Short answer - my 45% allocation to China
Due to the 'Trade War', my China ADRs declined by ~50% in '18 and treaded water in '19. For 2 years, half my portfolio was dead money.
IMHO, these are modern-day utilities; consumers and companies *need* them to get by. Due to network effects and/or stickiness, these businesses are quite 'moaty' and their customers use their services regularly; through good and....
2/7)...bad times.
By and large, these businesses offer 'mission critical' services; so their cash flows are pretty predictable and consistent.
Whether the economy is good or bad, who doesn't order online, make payments online or use software? ...
3/7) The ecommerce, online payments and software markets are enormous - very big TAMs (AWS/AMZN, GCP, Azure, Alibaba, Mercabolibre, Sea, Shopify are still growing rapidly).
Many of the businesses in these industries have very high gross margins and their revenues are likely to..