1/People sometimes ask me how I form my ideas about the world! Well, folks, there are basically two ingredients: Song lyrics, and data.

Just read a bunch of papers and articles and stuff, and try to relate it to song lyrics.
2/Let's go through an example: How the song "Kyoto", by Phoebe Bridgers, illustrates some of the problems with the American development model (infrastructure, education, and health).

3/We start the song in Japan, where the narrator (presumably, Phoebe herself) is utterly uninterested in the country or its culture, but finds bullet trains, pay phones (!!), and chain convenience stores pretty convenient. Image
4/The object of the song -- presumably, a guy Phoebe is romantically involved with -- is suffering from substance abuse, which is causing the narrator no end of frustration. Image
5/Already we can see an anecdote reflecting the work of economists Anne Case and Angus Deaton, who (among others) have noted rising opiate abuse and "deaths of despair" in the U.S., especially (though not exclusively) among blue-collar white people:

press.princeton.edu/books/hardcove…
6/Anyway, let's go on with the song. The narrator is feeling ennui in her American city. She's lonely, driving around the suburbs, with only her brother to hang out with. Image
7/The people in the song are clearly identified as blue-collar (probably white) Americans, with such identifiers as trucks, suburbs, conspiracy theories, and astrology. Image
8/A cultural milieu is depicted: People isolated by suburban sprawl, auto transport, distrust of institutions, poor health, and superstitious thinking.

A working class left behind by the institutions that should be serving it.
9/The stereotype of blue-collar Americans as superstitious, poorly educated, and anti-scientific is actually pretty wrong:

fivethirtyeight.com/features/ameri…
10/But the drug abuse is definitely real. As is the suburban sprawl.

pnas.org/content/112/27…
11/There's plenty of data on loneliness and deteriorating social relationships, especially among American youth:

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
12/And of course, surveys document that Americans' trust in most of our institutions has declined precipitously in recent years.

(That's probably what leads to conspiracy thinking like "chemtrails".)

pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019…
13/Now, lots of Americans are trying to think of ways to reverse the situation. One idea is that building better transit and denser cities -- as Japan does -- would reduce isolation.

theguardian.com/cities/2018/ju…
14/Would better infrastructure and denser development help cure America's social ills? It wouldn't be enough on its own, but it might help.

louise-arseneault.com/CMSUploads/201…

www3.nd.edu/~adutt/activit…
16/Anyway, lots of song lyrics and other pieces of art are (accidental or intentional) reflections of bigger ideas, some of which are supported by the data and some of which are not.
17/But regardless of whether better trains would heal blue-collar American social dysfunction, "Kyoto" is a great song, and worth a listen!

(end)

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More from @Noahpinion

15 Oct
1/A follow-up thread on Nobel Prizes and Big Questions.

Branko asks: Why don't we award prizes for economists who work on the incredibly important question of how China grew so fast?

It's a very good question...
2/Why DID China develop?

Many people who read the news think that the answer is perfectly obvious. Unfortunately, these "perfectly obvious" answers tend to be quite lacking:

3/Sure, lots of politicians yell about China playing unfair on trade. But does that mean restricting imports makes you grow fast? LOL, no.

Lots of countries restrict imports. Most do not exhibit China-like development.

blogs.lse.ac.uk/africaatlse/20…
Read 26 tweets
14 Oct
1/This thread argues that prizes like the Econ Nobel should be given based on the importance of the questions people *ask*, not on how sure we are that they got good *answers*.

I pretty strongly disagree.
2/We used to award Nobel Prizes to people for thinking long and hard about big issues. For example, Friedrich Hayek, who thought a lot about the causes of economic fluctuations and the political effects of the welfare state, won the prize in 1974.

nobelprize.org/prizes/economi…
3/No one can accuse Hayek of avoiding the big questions.

But did he get any of those big questions right?

One of Hayek's core theses was that countercyclical policy would lead to totalitarianism. This turned out to be completely wrong.
Read 20 tweets
13 Oct
1/Buildings in San Francisco that look like sand-colored rectangles: A thread
2/Let's start with Market Center, a tower complex that looks like it was designed by a 6-year-old boy learning to use the rectangle tool in Microsoft Paint:
3/Or 525 Market Street, which looks like the same kid's drawing, but several minutes later
Read 20 tweets
13 Oct
I feel like to effectively run as a strongman, you actually have to...be strong?

Trump ran face-first into COVID, failed to protect the nation from a pandemic, failed to get the military to be his enforcers, and presided under an unprecedented decline in American power.
Actual "strongman" things Trump has done:

1. Sent federal agents to Portland who accomplished nothing and we're kicked out

2. Mistreated a bunch of helpless asylum seekers who *turned themselves in*

3. Authorized a few ICE sweeps that didn't do much at all
What else is "strong" about Trump?

His tariffs were weak sauce that ended up backfiring.

He had that one Iranian general killed, I guess.

He tweeted a lot of angry tweets about China...
Read 5 tweets
12 Oct
1/Here's my post on today's Econ Nobel Prize:

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
2/As my colleague @skominers wrote, this prize is well-deserved!

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
3/In fact it was always pretty obvious that Milgrom would win it, and his thesis advisor Wilson is no slouch either!

marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu…

marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu…
Read 13 tweets
8 Oct
It's a little more complicated.

Unobservable structural parameters are fine IF you're willing to reject structural models outright, based on data.

But if (like many economists) you don't reject models, unmeasurable variables can lead to misspecification that never goes away.
For example: The coefficient of relative risk aversion. If people don't have CRRA preferences, this isn't a structural parameter; it changes when risk changes. So if preferences aren't CRRA and you decide rho=2, you're going to run into problems...
Of course, the example everyone is thinking about is TFP. A certain Nobel-winning business cycle model (which shall remain nameless) famously assumed that the TFP residual is exogenous and follows an AR(1) process. That turned out to be wrong in any number of ways...
Read 5 tweets

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