1/People sometimes ask me how I form my ideas about the world! Well, folks, there are basically two ingredients: Song lyrics, and data.
Just read a bunch of papers and articles and stuff, and try to relate it to song lyrics.
2/Let's go through an example: How the song "Kyoto", by Phoebe Bridgers, illustrates some of the problems with the American development model (infrastructure, education, and health).
3/We start the song in Japan, where the narrator (presumably, Phoebe herself) is utterly uninterested in the country or its culture, but finds bullet trains, pay phones (!!), and chain convenience stores pretty convenient.
4/The object of the song -- presumably, a guy Phoebe is romantically involved with -- is suffering from substance abuse, which is causing the narrator no end of frustration.
5/Already we can see an anecdote reflecting the work of economists Anne Case and Angus Deaton, who (among others) have noted rising opiate abuse and "deaths of despair" in the U.S., especially (though not exclusively) among blue-collar white people:
6/Anyway, let's go on with the song. The narrator is feeling ennui in her American city. She's lonely, driving around the suburbs, with only her brother to hang out with.
7/The people in the song are clearly identified as blue-collar (probably white) Americans, with such identifiers as trucks, suburbs, conspiracy theories, and astrology.
8/A cultural milieu is depicted: People isolated by suburban sprawl, auto transport, distrust of institutions, poor health, and superstitious thinking.
A working class left behind by the institutions that should be serving it.
9/The stereotype of blue-collar Americans as superstitious, poorly educated, and anti-scientific is actually pretty wrong:
13/Now, lots of Americans are trying to think of ways to reverse the situation. One idea is that building better transit and denser cities -- as Japan does -- would reduce isolation.
16/Anyway, lots of song lyrics and other pieces of art are (accidental or intentional) reflections of bigger ideas, some of which are supported by the data and some of which are not.
17/But regardless of whether better trains would heal blue-collar American social dysfunction, "Kyoto" is a great song, and worth a listen!
(end)
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1/This thread argues that prizes like the Econ Nobel should be given based on the importance of the questions people *ask*, not on how sure we are that they got good *answers*.
2/We used to award Nobel Prizes to people for thinking long and hard about big issues. For example, Friedrich Hayek, who thought a lot about the causes of economic fluctuations and the political effects of the welfare state, won the prize in 1974.
1/Buildings in San Francisco that look like sand-colored rectangles: A thread
2/Let's start with Market Center, a tower complex that looks like it was designed by a 6-year-old boy learning to use the rectangle tool in Microsoft Paint:
3/Or 525 Market Street, which looks like the same kid's drawing, but several minutes later
I feel like to effectively run as a strongman, you actually have to...be strong?
Trump ran face-first into COVID, failed to protect the nation from a pandemic, failed to get the military to be his enforcers, and presided under an unprecedented decline in American power.
For example: The coefficient of relative risk aversion. If people don't have CRRA preferences, this isn't a structural parameter; it changes when risk changes. So if preferences aren't CRRA and you decide rho=2, you're going to run into problems...
Of course, the example everyone is thinking about is TFP. A certain Nobel-winning business cycle model (which shall remain nameless) famously assumed that the TFP residual is exogenous and follows an AR(1) process. That turned out to be wrong in any number of ways...