The White House is embracing The Great Barrington Declaration, a proposal from "scientists" that opposes lockdowns in favor of "herd immunity." (nytimes.com/2020/10/13/wor…)

The math/history behind herd immunity can explain why this herd mentality is foolish. nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/1…
Reminder from my earlier thread about herd immunity/this story:

If places like NYC or Sweden had achieved the herd immunity threshold, then cases would be declining there rather than holding steady or increasing.
The two main reasons why a herd mentality would fail:

1) Kids' immune systems are born susceptible to infectious diseases.

2) Waning immunity is probable for SARS-CoV-2.

Both erode herd immunity over time, so we would never truly be in control. nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/1…
If we want herd immunity for COVID-19 that we can control, we need an effective vaccine.

📊 by @kennelliott
The Great Barrington Declaration is positing an illogical shortcut to herd immunity that will expose a huge number to chronic illness/death.

There is no shortcut. Until an effective vaccine is ready, social distance/wear masks/wash hands/don't be foolish. nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/1…

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More from @MoNscience

3 Oct
Some say that herd immunity achieved via regular ol' infection can stop the COVID-19 outbreak and return life to normal

History says they're wrong

For @NatGeo, I dive into herd immunity's origin story and why we need an effective vaccine to maintain it nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/1…
Now, those folks will say "But look at NYC!" where the caseload has been low and steady. This sustained recovery must be herd protection, they argue.

But based on the simple math behind herd immunity, this is a fantasy h/t Virginia Pitzer from @YaleSPH nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/1… Image
Likewise, if Sweden has achieved sufficient herd immunity, then their cases wouldn't be increasing right now at basically the same pace as eight months ago. ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da… Image
Read 15 tweets
2 Oct
Things to know about President Trump's coronavirus diagnosis, based on COVID-19 research to date.

1. When did Hope Hicks catch the virus?

Likely unknowable, but her symptoms offer some clues on the timing...
Hicks reportedly developed symptoms Wednesday evening (left, via @AP). apnews.com/article/virus-…

COVID's incubation period—how long symptoms take to appear after exposure—ranges from 1-14 days, though most develop signs after 4-6 days. (📊: @ConversationUK)
theconversation.com/how-long-are-y…
Takeaway 1: Hope Hicks may have caught COVID-19 anytime between Sept. 16-29, but it was most likely last Thursday thru Saturday (Sept. 24-26).
Read 11 tweets
27 Sep
.@nytimes has obtained Donald Trump’s tax information extending over more than two decades, revealing struggling properties, vast write-offs, an audit battle and hundreds of millions in debt coming due. nytimes.com/interactive/20… by @russbuettner @susannecraig @mmcintire
“Most of Mr. Trump’s core enterprises — from his constellation of golf courses to his conservative-magnet hotel in Washington — report losing millions, if not tens of millions, of dollars year after year.” 👀👀👀nytimes.com/interactive/20…
😮😮😮 “His properties have become bazaars for collecting money directly from lobbyists, foreign officials and others seeking face time, access or favor; the records for the first time put precise dollar figures on those transactions.”😮😮😮 nytimes.com/interactive/20… Image
Read 7 tweets
22 Sep
COVID-19 herd immunity achieved in Brazilian Amazon city?

A medRxiv preprint (aka not peer-reviewed aka read with grain of salt) claims that the herd immunity threshold has been reached in Manaus after 66% of the population became infected. 👀👀👀medrxiv.org/content/10.110… Image
The takeaway: This event could mean early predictions are right i.e., 60-70% of the population would need to be infected/vaccinated for herd immunity to be established/protect against the coronavirus.
Read 4 tweets
19 Sep
A person could say A LOT about the Yan report, which makes false assertions to claim that SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus was made in a lab.

Or you could let David Robertson (@robertson_lab), a viral genomics researcher at University of Glasgow, take the reins. nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/0… Image
.@NatGeo spoke with prominent virologists/misinformation researchers to understand where the Yan report came from and what it got wrong.

Along the way, they offered tips for overcoming misinformation about COVID-19 nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/0… by @mo_brouillette and @RebeccaRennerFL
In July, Robertson authored a peer-reviewed paper in Nature Medicine that showed the lineage behind SARS-CoV-2 and its closest known ancestor have been circulating in bat populations for decades. nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/0…
Read 9 tweets
17 Sep
In a statement ahead of an investor meeting the company is holding on Thursday, Moderna said the trial has now enrolled 25,296 of an expected 30,000 volunteers, and more than 10,000 have received two doses of its coronavirus vaccine. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
“CEO Stephane Bancel says “it is extremely unlikely” everyone in the country could get vaccinated by end in the first quarter of 2021, as a Trump administration official suggested on Wednesday” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Moderna should have enough data from its late-stage trial to know whether its coronavirus vaccine works in November. cnbc.com/2020/09/17/mod…
Read 5 tweets

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