See the unionist problem here? Everytime I've interviewed young voters in Scotland and asked them if they're in favour of independence, they look at me as if I've asked a stupid question. Westminster needs to think v big and v hard about this and there's little evidence of that.
https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1316350169324154882
Britain is a multi-national state with competing political preferences. As I've written many times, that requires very careful calibration. Theresa May was clearly very cognisant of this and once you understood that, you understood why she did many of the things she did.
I think May understood Brexit's capacity to deeply destabilise the Union. Not because it would make secession *easier* (it makes it harder, Scottish indy would be Brexit x 300) but because it makes it more *likely* because it reinforces a sense of the domination...
...of English political preferences through its larger population. Boris Johnson has prioritised this calibration far less. That coupled with his political personality, his particular form of Englishness, plus Covid and an impression that Sturgeon and the SNP have been far more..
....assured in their handling (not really backed up by data) has led to where we are. Though the fault is not just with Johnson. The truth is that the institutions of the union are not working. They are ramshackle. We have asymmetric devolution...
..a state which is neither unitary nor federal. An English political and governance question which has never been resolved.Successive governments have allowed these questions to go unanswered and our constitution to go on creaking...
...The best hope for the Union would probably be its reinvention, rehousing it in a new constitutional framework (federal parliament and so on). That would require proper imagination and verve from Westminster elites in a way not shown towards constitutional matters...
...for a generation. Patch and mend, or ignoring it, is almost certainly not going to work. But if history is anything to go by, it's what Westminster will try and do.
The role for the SNP and Yes and Westminster and No are potentially much different now than they were in 2014. Then there was no evidence consent for the Union had broken down. That's no longer the case. It makes the debate quite different and changes how each side will act.
Been reporting on these shifts a lot from Scotland. Latest report below
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1316336095743873024
Talking to SNP figs throughout the day, it’s clear they’re both pleased but cognisant of the challenges ahead. Pleased (and a bit surprised) that despite many difficulties for them- Covid, in fighting, Ferrier-support for them and independence is not only holding up but growing.
They’re cognisant though that Westminster is going to start fighting harder. They’re also aware that they were further ahead in the polls ahead of the 2016 elections but still didn’t win a maj. If history repeats itself it could be damaging for their push for a second referendum.
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