Yes. I think it's reasonable to assume it's less than 50/50 that it will be struck down, but it can absolutely happen with a 6-3 Court. (There's also the real risk that as with Sebelius they wreak havoc with various parts of the law without striking it down entirely.)
https://twitter.com/dhnexon/status/1316531221736939521
And that's assuming Dems have the White House/Senate. If Republicans hold the Senate -- unlikely, but certainly very possible -- foreclosing any retaliation against the Court or replacement for the ACA, all bets are off.
I've seen some takes arguing that Dems are mistaken for focusing on the ACA because it will look boy-who-cried-wolf if the ACA survives. This is really misguided: 1)Putting the fear of 13 into justices is a good thing, and 2)there will be PLENTY of outrageous decisions left...
...staring with the fact that Barrett's confirmation is the end of Roe, with the only question being whether it gets a quick, honest death or if it gets one of Roberts's extended "minimalist" sub silentio torture killings.
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