1/n Second (& final) piece in @IndianExpress by @shoumitro_c & me where we evaluate the twin prescriptions of India’s inward turn: favouring domestic demand over exports (macro) and raising barriers to encourage domestic production (trade): indianexpress.com/article/opinio…
2/n We argue for more openness in areas of opportunity for India, eg. clothing. A key policy is reducing import tariffs on man-made yarn, a critical input to most dynamic export segment. Chart shows these tariffs for key competitors: India’s doubled recently & highest again
Gulzar Natarajan has a very thoughtful review and critique of our research and policy papers. That sort of conversation could be very useful: gulzar05.blogspot.com/?m=1.
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Final *central* government revenue numbers for fiscal year 2019-20 for India released on Friday by Controller General of Accounts (CGA). Some confusion on their interpretation. Four take-aways 1/n
1. CGA numbers less reliable gauge of underlying economic activity because center's GST revenues are volatile, reflecting center's policy on sharing them with states. More reliable is a broader measure of *national* taxes: overall GST (center & states) plus all central taxes 2/n
2.Annual growth in this broad measure of taxes was minus 1.6% (nominal) and minus 6.1% (real). Excluding corporate taxes-which saw large rate cuts-growth was 3.2% (nominal) and minus 1.5% (real). *Real* tax growth is one macro-proxy for underlying *real* economic activity 3/n
1/n My @ProSyn is about the complacency of elites in Europe, US and China and how the current crisis might undermine that. A short thread to explain: project-syndicate.org/commentary/cov…
2/n Europe: The sense that integration cannot be reversed is strong. But Europe is creating a permanent underclass of countries (in South, esp. Italy) that neither shares prosperity of North in good times and is abandoned in calamitous ones
3/n USA. Elites adamantly cling to American exceptionalism. But 4 successive shocks to leadership: imperial overreach (Iraq); rigged economic system (fin'l crisis); dysfunctional politics/polarization; & epic incompetence in covid crisis. Diminishing allure of American "model."
Wanted: Committee to Save the World. Coronavirus pandemic requires a global response especially as threat spreads to poorer countries. But the Kissinger question haunts,"Whom should we call?" 1/n
US leadership has been tragically inadequate to its own crisis; Europe too focused on its own; China’s initial mistakes encumber its leadership role. And with these ruled out, so too are G-7, G-20 etc. 2/n
For obvious reasons--resources, expertise, reach--IMF, World Bank (& regional development banks) & WHO must take leadership where governments cannot; they must coordinate amongst themselves; and they must be guided by developing countries. 3/n
Lead paper @rohlamba & me @AEAjournals symposium on India: pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10…. “Constituting 1/7th of humanity, fissured horizontally by region, religion ..ossified vertically by caste & patriarchy, India is as much subcontinent of quasi-sovrgn states as unitary country” 1/n
A timeline of India’s major economic reforms and developments since 1980 2/n
Historically, 2 successful devpmt. patterns: USA/Europe: steady econ. growth (1.5%) over ~200 yrs. w/ eco. & pol. devpmt. co-evolving. East Asia: rapid growth (~5%) over ~50 yrs. w/ pol. devpmt. following eco. India different: democracy from start, then solid growth (~3%) 3/n