This piece by @justinsandefur and me on @WorldBank has elicited a lot of thoughtful responses, to which we wanted to respond.
e.g., @glassmanamanda @Morris_ScottA @joelhellman_SFS @TristanReed_ @MartinRavallion
project-syndicate.org/commentary/wor…
1/ The comments are that we discount:

1. Bank’s role in providing global public goods (GPGs)

2 Its “knowledge bank” role, ignoring the great research & analytical work, because of one bad recent experience

3.Benefits of conditionality & of other project lending

2/

Three new estimates of all-cause excess mortality in India during Covid pandemic

New research by @abhishekecon @JustinSandefur & me

The @cgdev working paper: cgdev.org/publication/th…

@IndianExpress op-ed: indianexpress.com/article/opinio… 1/ Data source underlying each estimate has shortcomings

Estimates vary in magnitude and in timing between India's 2 waves

They rely on assumptions & are subject to substantial uncertainty

2/

Huge thanks to #EconTwitter for engaging enthusiastically and constructively with this piece by Devesh Kapur and me on under-representation of developing country institutions in development economics.

Some preliminary ideas for taking discussion forward 1/

https://twitter.com/arvindsubraman/status/1375450648293085188

Important to point out that similar points have been made by others in the past (@gchelwa):

https://twitter.com/belindaarch/status/1375599343684714496

2/

1/ Striking, contrasting new findings on Indian govt.'s "New Welfarism" with broader lessons for pol. economy of development & for democratic politics

1. Big gains on New Welfarism, namely, access to essential goods/services

2. But reversal of gains on child stunting 2/ Piece @IndianExpress by @vksdimble @abhishekecon & me based on our analysis of first round of new National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) data: indianexpress.com/article/opinio…

1/ India's macro-trade-development puzzle stemming from 2 surprising facts

new paper w/@shoumitro_c: ashoka.edu.in/static/doc_upl…

Puzzle

Post-1991, world's 3rd fastest manufacturing export growth (Fact 1)

despite

Massive under-exports of unskilled labor goods (Fact 2) 2/ Fact 1

India considered inward-oriented economy & premature "deindustrializer: drodrik.scholar.harvard.edu/files/dani-rod…

But, for 3 decades, post-1991

Exports a key driver of growth

Not just services but manufacturing exports have grown rapidly (12% annual)

India an east Asian Tiger!

1/ The India-vs.-Bangladesh GDP per capita comparison (post @IMFNews WEO) has sparked anxiety & acrimony

But wrong numbers being compared

NO, on more appropriate metric, India has not been surpassed and, according to IMF, unlikely to be in near future 2/ GDP per capita is an *estimate* for one *indicator* of the average standard of living/welfare in a country

Note the 2 caveats, it is only one indicator, there are many others (eg. human development index)

and even as that indicator, GDP can be measured in many ways

1/n Second (& final) piece in @IndianExpress by @shoumitro_c & me where we evaluate the twin prescriptions of India’s inward turn: favouring domestic demand over exports (macro) and raising barriers to encourage domestic production (trade): indianexpress.com/article/opinio… 2/n We argue for more openness in areas of opportunity for India, eg. clothing. A key policy is reducing import tariffs on man-made yarn, a critical input to most dynamic export segment. Chart shows these tariffs for key competitors: India’s doubled recently & highest again

Excited about first research outputs from @AshokaUniv Center for Economic Policy (ACEP) on India's Exports and Growth

Research paper: ashoka.edu.in/static/doc_upl…

Policy paper: ashoka.edu.in/static/doc_upl…

w/ @shoumitro_c

1/ Focus here is on policy paper.

India's inward turn ("atmanirbharta"):
-favoring domestic demand over exports (macro)
-imposing barriers favoring domestic production (trade)
...is consequential

3 questions

1. Is inward turn strong?
2. Is it warranted?
3. Will it work?

2/

Final *central* government revenue numbers for fiscal year 2019-20 for India released on Friday by Controller General of Accounts (CGA). Some confusion on their interpretation. Four take-aways 1/n 1. CGA numbers less reliable gauge of underlying economic activity because center's GST revenues are volatile, reflecting center's policy on sharing them with states. More reliable is a broader measure of *national* taxes: overall GST (center & states) plus all central taxes 2/n

1/n My @ProSyn is about the complacency of elites in Europe, US and China and how the current crisis might undermine that. A short thread to explain: project-syndicate.org/commentary/cov… 2/n Europe: The sense that integration cannot be reversed is strong. But Europe is creating a permanent underclass of countries (in South, esp. Italy) that neither shares prosperity of North in good times and is abandoned in calamitous ones

Wanted: Committee to Save the World. Coronavirus pandemic requires a global response especially as threat spreads to poorer countries. But the Kissinger question haunts,"Whom should we call?" 1/n US leadership has been tragically inadequate to its own crisis; Europe too focused on its own; China’s initial mistakes encumber its leadership role. And with these ruled out, so too are G-7, G-20 etc. 2/n

Lead paper @rohlamba & me @AEAjournals symposium on India: pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10…. “Constituting 1/7th of humanity, fissured horizontally by region, religion ..ossified vertically by caste & patriarchy, India is as much subcontinent of quasi-sovrgn states as unitary country” 1/n A timeline of India’s major economic reforms and developments since 1980 2/n

1/n My @Kennedy_School paper w/ @FelmanJosh "India's Great Slowdown:What Happened?What's the Way Out?" hks.harvard.edu/centers/cid/pu…
Discussion w/ @PrannoyRoyNDTV @ndtv:
Presentations @BIC_Blr: & @orfonline:
Thread 2/n Latest indicators suggest slowdown is more serious than headline GDP numbers imply. Growth of macro-indicators of investment, consumption, trade, taxes and electricity are all negative or barely positive.

My @IndianExpress op-ed on impact of methodological changes on India's GDP growth post 2011-12. Reported annual average growth is about 7%. I estimate it at about 4.5%. 1/n: indianexpress.com/article/opinio… Confidence interval for my estimates go from 3.5% to 5.5 %. So, post-global financial crisis, growth in India, solid not stellar. Link to research paper: hks.harvard.edu/centers/cid/pu…. 2/n