Quick reminder on the importance (or not) of deadlines in the Brexit talks - from the WA to the FR. (Withdrawal Agreeement, Future Relationship) (thread)
1) Art. 50 TEU contained a 2-year time limit for negotiating a Withdrawal Agreement. After the expiry of those two years the Treaties cease to have effect in and for the UK. That was a hard, legal deadline. The two years could be extended (and were, several times). Nevertheless:
Once that deadline was reached and not extended the treaties cease to have effect for the UK with or without WA.
That is over. A WA was agreed, ratified and has entered into force. Even though a lot of the people who lobbied for the WA and voted for it seem to now be against it.
2) The WA that now is in force contains a transition period. That transition period states (roughly speaking) that EU law will continue in force. The end of the transition period under the WA is: 31 December 2020 (Art. 126).
That deadline could be extended. But under the WA an extension was only possible before 1 July 2020 by a decision of the Joint Committee (Art. 132). Could it still be extended?
Lawyers disagree to what extend this is still possible. The problem is that the EU has limited competences and it is unclear whether there is one here to pass an extension. That’s academic anyway. Politicians have decided: no extension.
So the transition will end at the end of this year. If there’s no agreement at that time we will deal under WTO terms. With tariffs and all. If there’s an agreement we will trade under the terms of that agreement.
That is the effect of the deadline in the WA. Now that does not mean we won’t continue to negotiate. We could sign an FTA three weeks later in theory.
All other deadlines (“no agreement by October 15 and I’ll walk” “we need an agreement by the October EuCo or we cannot ratify“) are NOT hard deadlines. What does that mean?
There clearly is an issue: an agreement once reached has to be ratified, cleared up, translated etc. There are necessary steps to take before it can enter into force. Some of these can be put off until later under what lawyers call “provisional application“ - other steps cannot.
But the thing is this: we don’t know how long precisely we need for these steps. So the deadlines are soft. Made to motivate people. And like a lot of deadlines that we set ourselves they pass and nobody cares.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Holger Hestermeyer

Holger Hestermeyer Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @hhesterm

16 Oct
Hope from European researchers: EMA has started two rolling reviews of covid vaccines. On October 1 it started the process for Oxford/AstraZeneca’s candidate, on October 6 it started for BioNTech/Pfizer. (Short thread)
What’s a rolling review? EMA describes it as follows Image
Here’s the press release on the first rolling review ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-st…
Read 5 tweets
12 Oct
Being perceived as tough can be an effective negotiating strategy. It backfires though if by “tough” you mean walking back on past agreements. As this is from the Trump playbook, some words on that are in order /1 on.ft.com/3lzudUQ
Trump threatened to bring NAFT down to reach USMCA. And he got what he wanted including rules of origin for the car industry that will be tough (impossible?) to meet for Mexico. So why not copy those tactics? /2
Because the UK-EU relationship is entirely different from the Mexican-US one. Mexico is utterly dependent on trade with the US (the US takes more than 70% of its exports). The UK is not even the EU’s largest trading partner. /3
Read 4 tweets
9 Oct
Allow me to correct @tradegoveuk. Your comparison does not support your conclusion. Allow me to explain (thread)
1) Your sample. You compare the UK system to Canada, Japan and Australia. Two of these systems are Westminster systems. That does not support a conclusion relating to “the world”.
2) Why do I say that? The real power in treaty scrutiny is an up or down vote on an FTA in Parliament. That exists, for example, in the US or the EU. Not in the UK.
Read 7 tweets
8 Oct
Germany published its ranking of trading partners in foreign trade for 2019 (any hint where to find the equivalent for 2018, @destatis ?) /1 destatis.de/EN/Themes/Econ…
For overall trade (imports+exports) the UK was Germany's 7th largest trading partner, after China, NL, US, France, Italy and Poland. For exports it ranked No. 5 after the US, France, China and NL.
The statistics for Jan to August for German exports unsurprisingly show dramatic change, but...
Read 4 tweets
6 Oct
From today‘s Politico: Ministers will ensure that 60% of the equipment used in the UK for producing wind energy is made in the country.
What is not mentioned: this can very quickly come into conflict with WTO law (Short thread)
National content requirements are highly dubious under WTO law - and Canada and India are amongst the countries whose programs ran into trouble at the WTO for precisely that reason.
Fortunately someone has written an article about this issue researchgate.net/publication/27…
Read 4 tweets
6 Oct
A thoroughly remarkable article. Gertrude Lübbe-Wolff takes on the US Supreme Court. The dysfunctional Court. zeitung.faz.net/faz/feuilleton…
It is hard to argue with the observation that the construction of the court has led to a thoroughly undesirable polarisation.
Probably important to point out: I do not agree with everything in the article. To point out one observation I do agree with: I think lifetime tenure and the mode of appointment lead to undesirable results.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!