Thread by @hhesterm

Quick reminder on the importance (or not) of deadlines in the Brexit talks - from the WA to the FR. (Withdrawal Agreeement, Future Relationship) (thread)

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1316661615090192390

1) Art. 50 TEU contained a 2-year time limit for negotiating a Withdrawal Agreement. After the expiry of those two years the Treaties cease to have effect in and for the UK. That was a hard, legal deadline. The two years could be extended (and were, several times). Nevertheless:

Once that deadline was reached and not extended the treaties cease to have effect for the UK with or without WA.
That is over. A WA was agreed, ratified and has entered into force. Even though a lot of the people who lobbied for the WA and voted for it seem to now be against it.

2) The WA that now is in force contains a transition period. That transition period states (roughly speaking) that EU law will continue in force. The end of the transition period under the WA is: 31 December 2020 (Art. 126).

That deadline could be extended. But under the WA an extension was only possible before 1 July 2020 by a decision of the Joint Committee (Art. 132). Could it still be extended?

Lawyers disagree to what extend this is still possible. The problem is that the EU has limited competences and it is unclear whether there is one here to pass an extension. That’s academic anyway. Politicians have decided: no extension.

So the transition will end at the end of this year. If there’s no agreement at that time we will deal under WTO terms. With tariffs and all. If there’s an agreement we will trade under the terms of that agreement.

That is the effect of the deadline in the WA. Now that does not mean we won’t continue to negotiate. We could sign an FTA three weeks later in theory.

All other deadlines (“no agreement by October 15 and I’ll walk” “we need an agreement by the October EuCo or we cannot ratify“) are NOT hard deadlines. What does that mean?

There clearly is an issue: an agreement once reached has to be ratified, cleared up, translated etc. There are necessary steps to take before it can enter into force. Some of these can be put off until later under what lawyers call “provisional application“ - other steps cannot.

But the thing is this: we don’t know how long precisely we need for these steps. So the deadlines are soft. Made to motivate people. And like a lot of deadlines that we set ourselves they pass and nobody cares.