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Dina D. Pomeranz

15 Oct, 12 tweets, 6 min read

Zusammenfassung meiner Präsentation in der Kommissionen für Wirtschaft und Abgaben (WAK) des Schweizer Parlaments zum Thema "Wirtschaftliche Folgen von Covid-19":

1/n

1) Für den Schutz der Wirtschaft ist die Eindämmung der Pandemie zentral.

Es ist nicht Covid-Prävention oder Schutz der Wirtschaft - sondern Covid Prävention für den Schutz der Wirtschaft.

Das schlimmste für die Wirtschaft ist die lähmende Wirkung einer starken Epidemie.

Bei der Wahl spezifischer Massnahmen kann es jedoch Trade-Offs geben.

Ziel:
- Möglichst grosse epidemiologische Wirkung
- Möglichst kleiner wirtschaftlicher Schaden

Massnahmen mit viel Wirkung, die kaum schaden: breites Testen, Contact Tracing, Covid App, Masken, Homeoffice

Je griffiger die obenstehenden Massnahmen, desto weniger Einschränkungen der wirtschaftlichen Aktivitäten sind nötig.

Bei wirtschaftlichen Einschränkungen sollte der Fokus auf Aktivitäten mit den grössten negativen Externalitäten liegen.

4/n

Bei Externalitäten, d.h. wenn Handlungen einer Person oder Firma negative Wirkungen auf andere haben, spielt der Markt nicht, und Eigenverantwortung ist ungenügend.

Andere Beispiele sind Raser im Verkehr, Alkohol am Steuer, oder Luftverschmutzung.

5/n

Starke Ansteckungen durch gewisse wirtschaftliche Aktivitäten bringen den ganzen Rest der Wirtschaft in Gefahr.

Um den Rest zu schützen, kann es sich lohnen, riskante Aktivitäten einzuschränken. Dies kann drastischere, teurere Massnahmen verhindern.

6/n

Teil 2) Eindämmung der Wirtschaftskrise durch staatliche Massnahmen.

Viele der Schweizer Instrumente haben sich enorm bewährt. Von Schuldenbremse - die uns nun Luft gibt in den schlechten Zeiten - über Kurzarbeit bis zur schnellen, unbürokratischen Hilfe für KMUs & Selbständige.

Denn was wir unbedingt verhindern sollten sind langfristige negative Folgen dieser kurzfristigen Krise und Situationen, welche die aktuelle Rezession noch zusätzlich verschärfen:

8/n

Um solche langfristigen Folgen zu vermeiden, ist es wichtig, dass wir
- die Kurve biegen, *bevor* sie aus dem Ruder läuft (allerhöchste Eisenbahn)
- andere systemische Risiken nicht vernachlässigen
- gezielte finanzielle Unterstützung leisten als stabilisierende Investition

9/n

Teil 3)Covid-19 führt zu verschärften Ungleichheiten

- Zwischen Arm und Reich auf nationaler Ebene
- International
- Zwischen den Geschlechtern

10/n

Zusammenfassung:

@econ_uzh

P.S. Die Überlegungen in dieser Präsentation entsprechen im grossen und ganzen immer noch den Prinzipien des Positionspapiers zu Covid-19, das wir *einstimmig* mit allen VWL Professoren der Uni Zürich @econ_uzh Ende März verfasst hatten:

econ.uzh.ch/de/newsandmedi…

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More from @DinaPomeranz

Dina D. Pomeranz

@DinaPomeranz

17 Mar

@adinarom

Today I added a few slides about Covid-19 to the beginning of the "Global Policy Analysis" class, before delving into the regular material. Students expressed appreciation that we took time to do that. @adinarom encouraged me to share it here in case it's useful for others.

1/n

We first took an anonymous vote, so that I could get a sense of where students were at regarding the topic:

It turned out the majority response was 2), with the smallest response going to 1).

2/n

We then started by looking at recent numbers of confirmed cases & how they have evolved in a steep increasing slope in most countries.

Looking at absolute numbers, Switzerland doesn't look so high. But we are a small country. In per capita terms, we are actually the 2nd highest:

Read 26 tweets

Dina D. Pomeranz

@DinaPomeranz

28 Feb

@rodrikdani

Keynote by @rodrikdani

Great to see that trade and development is becoming a "thing" again in academic econ. It used to be a big topic, then for a while trade econs and development econs lost some interest in each others' work. Great to see them coming together again more, e.g. at this conference.

For Asian "growth miracle" countries, industrialization-led structural change was a key mechanism. But such rapid and sustained industrialization may not be available anymore in today's environment.

Read 16 tweets

Dina D. Pomeranz

@DinaPomeranz

31 Dec 19

For the New Year, I'll share a few trends of the past decade.

Since for many longer-term trends, data is not yet available until 2019, I will post the last available 10 years.

Happy New Year!

The share of people in the world who live in extreme poverty (i.e. with less than 1.90 Dollars per day, adjusted for prices), fell by more than half, from 22% to 10%, between 2005-2015:

ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty

The share of people living in extreme poverty fell on all continents.

In East Asia from 19% to 2%, in Sub-Saharan Africa from 51% to 41%:

Read 20 tweets

Dina D. Pomeranz

@DinaPomeranz

15 Dec 19

@OdhiamboFrank_O

Looking forward to day 1 of the 4th Zurich Conference on Public Finance in Developing Countries tomorrow!

Excited to have a wonderful line-up of presentations again & I particularly look forward to @OdhiamboFrank_O's talk on "Do's & Don'ts for Field Work" & to @adnanqk's Keynote

And we're off to a good start!

@OdhiamboFrank_O

Presentation by IPA Kenya research manager @OdhiamboFrank_O with advice for researchers who work with research assistants remotely for research in countries other than where they live:

1/n

Read 19 tweets

Dina D. Pomeranz

@DinaPomeranz

17 Nov 19

Wonderful interview with Nobel Prize winner Esther Duflo. Will summarize some quotes in a thread:

"I became an economist because I wanted to make the world a better place. I was an undergrad student in history & only decided to do econ when I realized that economists have this wonderful position that they can take time to study problems deeply & then talk to policy makers."

"Economics is the study of how people react to the economic environment, what makes them tick, what is important to them. So it's very much a social science. It's a social science that has its own approach but that is very much inspired by the other social sciences."

Read 48 tweets

Dina D. Pomeranz

@DinaPomeranz

10 Nov 19

Just started digging in the new book by Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee. Will share some quotes from the intro.

"What the most recent [economics] research has to say, it turns out, is often surprising, especially to those used to the pat answers coming out of TV "economists" and high school textbooks.

"The professional consensus of economists (when it exists) is often systematically different from the views of ordinary citizens."

Example from the US:
"Economists were (much) more in favor of raising federal taxes(97.4% of economists, compared to 66% of regular Americans)."

Read 13 tweets

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