Lindsey Graham holds modest lead in the race for U.S. Senate in South Carolina, according a new Times/Siena poll.
Graham leads Harrison, 46 to 40.
Bill Bledsoe--who has dropped out--holds 4 percent, and another 2 percent won't vote for Senate.
nytimes.com/2020/10/15/us/…
Graham leads Harrison, 46 to 40.
Bill Bledsoe--who has dropped out--holds 4 percent, and another 2 percent won't vote for Senate.
nytimes.com/2020/10/15/us/…
Notably, Graham quite a bit better in interviews over the last two nights during the confirmation hearings.
He ran well behind the president over the weekend, but ran well ahead of the president over the last two days. Maybe noise. Maybe not. It'll be interesting to see.
He ran well behind the president over the weekend, but ran well ahead of the president over the last two days. Maybe noise. Maybe not. It'll be interesting to see.
In the presidential race, Donald Trump holds a slightly larger 49 to 41 percent lead over Joe Biden.
Unlike some other polling out there, we find that Republicans continue to hold an overwhelming advantage among white voters without a degree in the state, who back Trump by a 77-18 margin.
In terms of the composition of the electorate, the sample is 71% white and 26% black, based on how voters described their race when they registered to vote. That represents an uptick in the black share of the electorate from '16, and there's no RV-LV gap here
Yeah, so there's an interesting gap here--how voters respond to our poll question about race and ethnicity, and how they responded to the race question on their voter registration form.
https://twitter.com/willmaxey/status/1316792590344302592?s=20
Our sample is 65-23 white/black by self-report in the poll. When those same folks registered to vote, they were 71-26 white/black. We weight on the latter definition, since we know exactly how many people identified as white or black on their voter registration form
If you crosstab the results on *voter file* race, instead of self-report, you get the same thing:
Black: 82-3 in the presidential race
White 26-66.
Black: 82-3 in the presidential race
White 26-66.
And I see a lot of talk about undecided voters, but like, if you just allocate the undecided vote by Trump approval you get up to... Graham +7.6. If you allocate with the presidential race ballot, you get Graham+7.3.
I think it's a lot better than eye-balling the pct. undecided by demographic group in the crosstabs
https://twitter.com/joeyhbanks/status/1316796654272614400?s=20
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