Conor Neu Profile picture
15 Oct, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Prediction: The next 3-6 months are again going to hit the low-income worker very hard, driving greater wealth gaps, which will drive further social unrest.

Hope I'm wrong.

My two guesses why:
1.Small business unemployment is increasing.

This weeks claims are a slight uptick, plus many of my small business calls in last 2 weeks included discussions about pending layoffs or reduction of hours.

Winter will not be kind to restaurants/entertainment either. Image
2.The stimulus bill will miss.

All we need is another round of PPP and extension of unemployment benefits.

But, IF a stimulus bill passes, those two components will be less than before and more will go to those who don’t need it (stable businesses and employed workers). Image
In summary, I believe we are going to need another short term fix (stimulus) and I do not think it will address those who need it. I hope I'm wrong.

All that said, the economy will probably still thrive. We will just see more wealth and income gaps enabled.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Conor Neu

Conor Neu Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ConorNeu

18 Sep
Closed ANOTHER portfolio purchase on Wednesday.

What: Unsecured prime Lending Club consumer loan pool
Term: 60-mo fully amortizing
Servicing: Retained

Target IRR: 25%
Downside IRR (3x defaults): 13%

Size: $601k UPB (unpaid principal balance) + charged off
Duration: 3.5 mo
Purchase Price: 93.9% of UPB plus accr interest. $565k outlay.

How: Seller intro’d through an industry relationship. Portfolio coming out of a securitization. Paying heavy fixed monthly fees that will eat into the yield over remaining life.
Pricing: Used 2x baseline default rates. Model cash flows at loan level and discounted at a 20% rate. Heavily marked down DQ, charged off, and hardship.

Aware seller had few options, so just needed to get to a price that they’d accept.
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!