Prediction: The next 3-6 months are again going to hit the low-income worker very hard, driving greater wealth gaps, which will drive further social unrest.
Hope I'm wrong.
My two guesses why:
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1.Small business unemployment is increasing.
This weeks claims are a slight uptick, plus many of my small business calls in last 2 weeks included discussions about pending layoffs or reduction of hours.
Winter will not be kind to restaurants/entertainment either.
2.The stimulus bill will miss.
All we need is another round of PPP and extension of unemployment benefits.
But, IF a stimulus bill passes, those two components will be less than before and more will go to those who don’t need it (stable businesses and employed workers).
In summary, I believe we are going to need another short term fix (stimulus) and I do not think it will address those who need it. I hope I'm wrong.
All that said, the economy will probably still thrive. We will just see more wealth and income gaps enabled.
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What: Unsecured prime Lending Club consumer loan pool
Term: 60-mo fully amortizing
Servicing: Retained
Target IRR: 25%
Downside IRR (3x defaults): 13%
Size: $601k UPB (unpaid principal balance) + charged off
Duration: 3.5 mo
1/
Purchase Price: 93.9% of UPB plus accr interest. $565k outlay.
How: Seller intro’d through an industry relationship. Portfolio coming out of a securitization. Paying heavy fixed monthly fees that will eat into the yield over remaining life.
2/
Pricing: Used 2x baseline default rates. Model cash flows at loan level and discounted at a 20% rate. Heavily marked down DQ, charged off, and hardship.
Aware seller had few options, so just needed to get to a price that they’d accept.
3/