“Yield of Dreams”

New Yorker Ray Kinsella (played by @moseskagan), follows his wife, Annie (@antonia_mdprjct) to her childhood birthplace, Columbia, Missouri. They buy farmland to work it, hearing 8-caps exist in farmland, and afraid he’ll never see more than a 4-cap again.
1/ Soon, he hears voices in his cornfields.

"If you build it, he will come."

He sees a vision of a multi-family apartment building in the cornfield and Shoeless Joe Jackson (@BrentBeshore) standing in front. Annie believes him and plows under, at risk of financial ruin.
2/

Finished up a fun project that overlaps finance, parenting, Twitter, and more.

Here is the end result.

But let’s start at the beginning....
1/13 One of my favorite podcasts is The Business of Family, by @MikeBoyd.

In multiple episodes, child financial motivation and allowances are discussed. But, the episode with Richard Eyre stuck with me.
2/13

My top 7 #fintech lending predictions for 2021:

1. The US consumer is going to struggle mid-year.

Will be tough to pass more stimulus as the vaccine rolls out. There will be a gap mid-year as current stimulus wears off but before the economy fully re-opens. 2. Small businesses will see a flip back to local, where people go online less and out to dinner/entertainment more as the economy re-opens.

2020 vintage Saas businesses may survive, but the pace of growth will slow, breaking hockey sticks.

Prediction: The next 3-6 months are again going to hit the low-income worker very hard, driving greater wealth gaps, which will drive further social unrest.

Hope I'm wrong.

My two guesses why:
👇 1.Small business unemployment is increasing.

This weeks claims are a slight uptick, plus many of my small business calls in last 2 weeks included discussions about pending layoffs or reduction of hours.

Winter will not be kind to restaurants/entertainment either.

Closed ANOTHER portfolio purchase on Wednesday.

What: Unsecured prime Lending Club consumer loan pool
Term: 60-mo fully amortizing
Servicing: Retained

Target IRR: 25%
Downside IRR (3x defaults): 13%

Size: $601k UPB (unpaid principal balance) + charged off
Duration: 3.5 mo
1/ Purchase Price: 93.9% of UPB plus accr interest. $565k outlay.

How: Seller intro’d through an industry relationship. Portfolio coming out of a securitization. Paying heavy fixed monthly fees that will eat into the yield over remaining life.
2/