Husband to @KatieMay, private credit CIO @PierAssetMgmt. My opinions. Past performance no guarantee of future results. See link for more info.
Aug 31, 2021 • 17 tweets • 6 min read
“Yield of Dreams”
New Yorker Ray Kinsella (played by @moseskagan), follows his wife, Annie (@antonia_mdprjct) to her childhood birthplace, Columbia, Missouri. They buy farmland to work it, hearing 8-caps exist in farmland, and afraid he’ll never see more than a 4-cap again.
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Soon, he hears voices in his cornfields.
"If you build it, he will come."
He sees a vision of a multi-family apartment building in the cornfield and Shoeless Joe Jackson (@BrentBeshore) standing in front. Annie believes him and plows under, at risk of financial ruin.
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Jan 26, 2021 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
Finished up a fun project that overlaps finance, parenting, Twitter, and more.
Here is the end result.
But let’s start at the beginning....
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One of my favorite podcasts is The Business of Family, by @MikeBoyd.
In multiple episodes, child financial motivation and allowances are discussed. But, the episode with Richard Eyre stuck with me.
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Will be tough to pass more stimulus as the vaccine rolls out. There will be a gap mid-year as current stimulus wears off but before the economy fully re-opens.
2. Small businesses will see a flip back to local, where people go online less and out to dinner/entertainment more as the economy re-opens.
2020 vintage Saas businesses may survive, but the pace of growth will slow, breaking hockey sticks.
Oct 15, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Prediction: The next 3-6 months are again going to hit the low-income worker very hard, driving greater wealth gaps, which will drive further social unrest.
Hope I'm wrong.
My two guesses why:
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1.Small business unemployment is increasing.
This weeks claims are a slight uptick, plus many of my small business calls in last 2 weeks included discussions about pending layoffs or reduction of hours.
Winter will not be kind to restaurants/entertainment either.
Sep 18, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Closed ANOTHER portfolio purchase on Wednesday.
What: Unsecured prime Lending Club consumer loan pool
Term: 60-mo fully amortizing
Servicing: Retained
Target IRR: 25%
Downside IRR (3x defaults): 13%
Size: $601k UPB (unpaid principal balance) + charged off
Duration: 3.5 mo
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Purchase Price: 93.9% of UPB plus accr interest. $565k outlay.
How: Seller intro’d through an industry relationship. Portfolio coming out of a securitization. Paying heavy fixed monthly fees that will eat into the yield over remaining life.
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