JPR007 Profile picture
15 Oct, 7 tweets, 2 min read

These charts have now been updated with the latest information and adjusted for the stock split

1. This is the context
2. These are the Base Case assumptions

- and only relate to the primary business of making automobiles

- with batteries sourced from third parties like Panasonic, LG Chem and CATL
3. This is the valuation from those assumptions

- using a 10x P/E Multiple, referred to as “Buyer’s Pricing”
4. The typical range of P/E Multiples for the S&P 500 historically has been around 10x - 20x
5. We have used the 20x P/E Multiple to determine a valuation referred to here as “Seller’s Pricing”
6. This shows the projection of the stock price over time based on those 2031 valuations
7. And this chart shows how those future projections look in relation to the stock’s actual price history

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More from @jpr007

16 Oct
LG Chem, the world’s top electric vehicle EV battery maker, is in talks with a “couple” of automakers to create joint ventures to produce automotive batteries, Chief Executive Officer Hak Cheol Shin told Reuters on Friday…
“Our joint ventures with Geely and GM have been already announced, and we have ongoing discussions with a couple of other automakers,” he said

The South Korean company currently supplies batteries from its Nanjing China factory for Model 3 vehicles built at Tesla Shanghai plant
“We have started supplying to Tesla in earnest, and this is the beginning of a good partnership and we hope to expand the partnership,” he said

“We are in talks to expand cooperation with almost all automakers, and Tesla is one of them,” he said
Read 5 tweets
15 Oct

These charts have now been updated with the latest information and adjusted for the stock split

1. The context remains the same
2. And the core volume assumptions are unchanged
3. But it has been assumed that proprietary Battery Manufacturing will allow Tesla to maintain a 30% Gross Margin, up from 26% in the Base Case

- this valuation is at a 10x P/E Multiple
Read 6 tweets
14 Oct


- very unusual for their 2019 Income Taxes to be equal to their entire Pre-Tax Income

- this had the effect of wiping out their profits for 2019

- 2018 Pre-Tax Income was €4.174 billion compared to €1.473 billion in 2019

- 85% of Debt structure is short term matched against short-term receivables from Sales Financing
Read 9 tweets
12 Oct

“Software and autonomous driving - only those who master these disciplines have a future in the automotive industry !”…
“This is why they were the main topics of our 1st digital top management conference, which was attended by over 400 Volkswagen AG executives from all over the world”
“In April 2020 we held a strategy workshop where we asked ourselves :

"What must we achieve in the next six months to catch up with Tesla in digital competence by 2024 at the latest?”
Read 6 tweets
12 Oct
Hyundai will recall 37,366 Kona BEVs in Europe and 11,137 Kona BEVs in North America according to Yonhap

The recalls would come after the South Korean automaker announced last week a voluntary recall plan for 25,564 Kona BEVs at home starting 16 October…
Hyundai Motor Co is set to triple the number of recalled Kona electric cars over battery cell fire risks with plans to recall around 51,000 vehicles in North America, Europe, China and other markets, Yonhap news agency reported on Sunday
Hyundai said in a statement on Monday it “is in the final stages of filing a voluntary recall notice with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration NHTSA for U.S. Kona EVs and will start the process of informing owners of these vehicles”
Read 10 tweets
9 Oct
Nissan bets on EV supremacy for growth, CEO says - Nikkei Asia…
Nissan President and CEO Makoto Uchida says the automaker will "take advantage of the scale of the alliance" with Renault and Mitsubishi Motors in electrification technology, which he sees as a source of future revenue
He also says electrification may drive a restructuring in the auto industry and didn't deny the possibility of expanding the alliance
Read 32 tweets

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