So why won't the Welsh Government publish the hyper local data for coronavirus?

It looks like we have an answer.

This issue has been rumbling on for over a month.
The Welsh Conservatives in particular have been obsessed with raising this as they are advocating for hyper local lockdowns where, for instance, just a council ward will be locked down.
Every week the UK Government release maps like this for England. It shows, at a very local level, how many Covid-19 cases there are.
By contrast, the Welsh Government will only release it on a local authority basis.

This means Hay-on-Wye, Ystradgynlais and Welshpool will have the same rate because they are all in Powys despite being 90 mile apart.
There is no doubt they have the data. They used it to put Llanelli and Bangor into lockdown and some local authorities are already publishing it of their own accord like Bridgend:
For weeks WalesOnline pressed the health minister Vaughan Gething in press conferences to commit to publishing the data on a weekly basis like they do across the border.

Each time he dodged the question with vague reasons such as "not providing a running commentary".
However, speaking in Plenary this week the First Minister provided more explanation.

He claims the reason for not publishing the data is because it is too "volatile" and "it's impossible to draw sensible and reliable conclusions from it."
He went on to say "the data we publish needs to be data that can be sensibly used, and where it can be, then we do".
In one sense this is understandable. In a sparsely populated area, a couple of positive tests could make it look like every person has the virus when looked at as cases per 100,000
We also know that many young people are asymptomatic. This means an area with a young population may seem safer than it is, giving people a false sense of security.
Additionally, with such small sample sizes the data may swing wildly from day to day make accurate analysis hard.
However, and this is just my opinion, this seems very much like treating people in Wales as children.

All data is open to misinterpretation.

Providing it is published with all the needed caveats & disclaimers why shouldn't people understand what is happening in their community.
In an era of fake news, where people believe that vaccines are dangerous and 5G causes pandemics, verifiable, well explained information is even more critical. It fills in the gaps of information which would otherwise be filled with crap, lies and misinformation.

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More from @WillHayCardiff

14 Oct
Let's take a look at the evidence underpinning the @fmwales decision to ban travel from Covid hotspots other parts of the UK.

Mark Drakeford has pointed to three pieces of evidence underpinning his decision.
1. Waste water analysis found similarities in virus strains in North Wales and the NW of England.

This technique was developed at Bangor Uni & monitors the amount of virus RNA (equivalent to our DNA).

According to the FM the similarities suggest transmission from Liverpool.
2. Research from the Public Health Wales Pathogen Genomics Unit and Cardiff University School of Biosciences.

This looks at mutation in the virus to work out where the original source of infection in an area came from.
Read 9 tweets
14 Oct
Big news.

First Minister Mark Drakeford will impose restriction on travelers from England on Friday at 6pm if Boris Johnson does not take action himself.

[Thread below]…
From 6pm on Friday, October 16, people from areas of England, Scotland and Northern Ireland with high prevalence rates of the virus will not be allowed to travel to Wales.
According to the First Minister, the rules will apply to anyone in an area of England in the top two tiers of alert in the English system - those deemed to have "high" and "very high" risk levels.

Areas of 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 are currently ordered into “medium”, “high” and “very high”.
Read 5 tweets
14 Oct
Pretty bleak from the Welsh NHS Chief executive today.

The Welsh NHS's normal critical care capacity is already full.

Planned surgeries will be cancelled to make room. All very March 2020.

There are 12 hospitals in Wales that are under serious pressure at the moment.

He said: "Today there are 12 hospitals reporting either levels three or four, which show the increased pressure across the NHS "

3 & 4 are the highest levels.
Read 4 tweets
21 Sep
Breaking news.

A local lockdown has been ordered for:
- Newport
- Bridgend
- Merthyr Tydfil
- Blaenau Gwent.

This will be coming it at 6pm tomorrow.

More details below:
On the Merthyr lockdown - cases appear to be mainly focused around two distinct clusters, linked to a large employer and a pub.

Two new, smaller clusters have also been identified.
In Newport, the rise in cases appeared to start with a house party at the end of August and was subsequently linked to a number of pubs.

There is a wide spread of cases across the city, which are not linked to a particular cluster or showing links with existing cases.
Read 7 tweets
12 Sep
There is a lot of confusion over who is to blame for the situation in the Rhondda so thought I would try and cut through the misinformation and general Twitter fury.

So testing in Wales is split between the Welsh & UK Government.
Most of the drive in centres you see are run by the UK Gov (through Deloitte/Serco etc).
At present about 75% of Wales' testing is done by the UK Gov (though since the start of the crisis Wales has done more).
Why so confusing? Good question.

It stems back to March when the UK Gov opened a testing centre in the Cardiff City Stadium without properly discussing with WG or PHW.

So for better or worse, we have a duel system (1 of which tests by putting up the nose and 1 who doesn't).
Read 10 tweets
5 Aug
I sometimes think it's a miracle our Welsh NHS functions at all.

Yesterday @WalesOnline published a story on how many people were discharged from hospital to care homes without a test between Mar 1 and May 31 - broken down by health board.

But that isn't the real story
All 7 health boards were sent an FoI asking 5 questions:
- How many patients were discharged into care homes
- How many sent to a new home or their previous one
- How many tested prior to discharge
- How many since ID'd as having Covid
- How many died subsequently
What is bizarre about the responses is some (Aneurin Bevan) could answer all 5 questions quickly and easily.

Whereas some could only answer a few.

C&V could only answer the first question. For others they either didn't hold the data or it would cost too much cash to calculate.
Read 10 tweets

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