Delays in FDA approval of a vaccine probably won’t change when most of us get a vaccine. PFE says it might be able to seek approval by end of Nov, so Dec approval possible. But will only have 100M doses ready by YE (50M courses). So unless you have...…
So unless you have reason to think you would be among the 50M first up to get vaccinated, what will determine when you get vaccinated is the pace of production. & for most of us, our ticket likely won’t be called until 2Q21. So approval delays of 1-2 months won’t change that.
You might even prefer that the vaccines be vetted more carefully. Of course, the people who would be impacted by delays are those slated to get the first doses. Front-line workers, vulnerable. They too might prefer to know the vaccines are safe and effective.
And while it’s very important to protect our front-line workers & vulnerable ASAP for their sake & therefore efficient approval is important of even the few doses companies have built up... that won’t open up the economy (ie economy doesn’t open when vaccine is approved!).
Opening economy will require majority to get vaccinated, which is a function of production, not speed of approval. When there are 500M (& growing) doses stockpiled & ready to go (~Feb) but we still don’t have approval, that’s when approval becomes rate limiting to econ opening.
Our team is tracking how many doses we think various companies will have available for various regions over time on our Covid Vaccine map (lower right). Major early contributor could be AZ, but they are on hold in US & have weakest vaccine, so big unknown.

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More from @PeterKolchinsky

29 Sep
It seems @icer_review’s heart is showing a little in today’s report on essential compassion & fairness of proper insurance w/ low OOP costs for medicines. But they still have a lingering attachment to math that’s been rightly criticized as racist...… 1/ patient advocate @SuePeschin in this short, incisive piece.… I wonder if it’s a bit uncomfortable for policymakers ICER claims to have influenced w/ its math. After all, #badmathkills 2/
.@icer_review says if medicines for kids w/ sickle cell disease don’t make the cut according to their math (which @SuePeschin has pointed out is deeply flawed), insurance should make those meds unaffordable to them (w/ high OOP costs) as leverage over drug companies. Harsh.
Read 9 tweets
30 Aug
No viruses in this one but it’s still fun. In the spirit of the enemy of my enemy, there was once a time when MALARIA was a dangerous friend worth having in the fight against a deadlier pathogen: SYPHILIS. Like Godzilla vs Mothra, doctors would infect patients dying... Image
...from syphilis w/ malaria to cause them to spike a raging fever. Syphilis is a really nasty bacteria that for millennia was considered incurable, though patients could recover if their had a high enough fever... esp on Saturdays. Image
Malaria was hardly a walk in the park & one might not consider trading malaria for syphilis to be medically ethical, except that there was a drug, quinine, for malaria. So idea was to cure syphilis w/ malaria & cure malaria w/ quinine. Fun fact: quinine glows in black light: Image
Read 8 tweets
28 Aug
With each new drug, patients w/ lung cancer live longer. If first one hadn’t been rewarded, all rest wouldn’t have followed. Only insurance makes all affordable. Eventually they go generic; society saves money & humanity forever enjoys longer life span. Biotech Social Contract! Image
Flagging here for a few thought leaders in or soon to be Washington as they consider how healthcare should work. @Tcardenas @ngoroff @StefFeldman @JoeBiden
Here’s the whole paper, from folks at FDA, who are fortunate to see the totality of the constant effort to push back against the threat of disease that weighs upon us all.…
Read 4 tweets
26 Aug
For RA Capital’s next Business of Biotech course, I could use some advice. Do students learn as effectively listening to an audiobook as when they read the actual book? If you’ve taught and grappled with this, please add your comments.
I’m thrilled that is available as an Audiobook, though I’m wondering whether old school is better for teaching.
Internet is filled with advice. Here’s a thoughtful piece. But lately I’ve been getting all my peer-reviewed scientific analysis from twitter so figured I would come back for more.…
Read 4 tweets
11 Aug
Aptly named Sputnik V, Russian “approved” vaccine is like old Soviet rocket tech that only got cosmonauts into orbit but lacked the sophistication to get them to the moon like US could.…
It’s a two vector adenovirus vaccine, like taking a shot of Cansino’s vaccine (Ad5) followed by a shot of JNJ’s (Ad26). Not much data b/c only did Phase 1. Cansino’s data were really weak. AstraZeneca & Oxford also have a weak adenoviral vaccine, even after 2 shots.
Russia says their breakthrough is using different adenoviruses for the shots. Maybe, but they don’t show much data and the 100% protection they refer to is not based on the large protection studies needed to make such a claim.
Read 6 tweets
9 Aug
Not since HIV have viruses & bacteria been this ANGRY at a new member. They are so disgruntled by SARS2, they’re helping make vaccines against it. Pathogens are a Mafia- they have a Pathogen Bad Guy Code. What’s the Code? Who’s askin? Don’t tell humans! (Oh, I’ll tell you...)
The Pathogen Bad Guy Code is to never really, truly scare HUMANS! You can be bad, you can be gross, and you can even be a bit deadly, but don’t ever be so bad, gross, or deadly that humans stop hanging out together. B/c that wrecks it for everyone!
Just look at flu! It’s having a really bad year. “Business is way down”, said flu. “COVID has humans isolating, masking up! They ain’t shaking hands, even.” Fortunately, flu has a decent side biz in animals so it’s getting by & ready to make a comeback.…
Read 17 tweets

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