Tom Bonier Profile picture
16 Oct, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Our update went live last night. We saw a slight turn towards Dems in OH and WI in the reported AVEV data, and MI appears to have generally stayed the same.
There's still evidence that the partisan model rollup in these states is overly Republican. If you look at the model distribution, you'll see that there is a cluster of voters at the low end of the score (GOP) but no such cluster at the Dem end.
That said, the model does a good job of rank ordering voters in terms of likely partisanship, an improvement upon the prior partisanship score.
My assessment at this point is that we are presenting a somewhat more pessimistic view of the Dem turnout among AVEV in MI, WI, and OH than is likely occuring. Take that as context as you evaluate these states. In the end these are models, not predictions of vote choice.

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More from @tbonier

15 Oct
Tomorrow we're releasing an update to our TargetEarly site, impacting the modeled partisanship classifications in MI, OH, and WI, improving their accuracy. I'll explain the process and rationale in a brief thread here, for anyone who is interested.
I've suspected for a while now that the generic partisan models weren't doing as good of a job as we'd like accurately capturing the generic partisanship of voters in those states. To be fair, those are tough states to model, with no party reg and relatively homogeneous.
To assess the models, first I looked at the party models in the context of the 2016 electorate. In MI the model was 8 points more GOP than the election outcome, 7 pts in OH, and 10 pts in WI. That's compared against the Clinton-Trump margin in each state.
Read 8 tweets
13 Oct
We've surpassed 10M ballots cast nationally, with 21 days remaining. What's more, early voting will only accelerate as key states begin early in person voting.

We can clearly state that Dems are building a lead in the early vote, not just cannibalizing E-day votes.

Details... Image
We've added a filter on our TargetEarly site allowing users to filter just to aggregate data for Presidential or Senate battleground states.…
Limiting the scope just to presidential battleground states, Dems have a lead of 15% among early votes cast thus far, almost doubling the 8% lead they had in those same states at this same point in '16. Image
Read 14 tweets
7 Oct
142,510 Americans who have never voted before have already cast a ballot in the 2020 general election. At this point in the 2016 cycle only 38,394 first time voters had cast a ballot.
Among these first time voters, Dems have a modeled partisan ID advantage of 6.4%. At this same point in the '16 cycle Republicans had an advantage of 1.3% among these new voters.
This surge in first time voter turnout among the early votes cast thus far is being driven by big increases from black, asian, and latino voters.
Read 6 tweets
5 Oct
Over 3.6M votes have already been cast in the 2020 general election.
While Democrats have a large lead overall among those early votes cast, it's reasonable to assume that Republicans will skew somewhat towards Election Day voting, nationally.
For me, the most important datapoint we can gather from the early vote is the partisan distribution among low likelihood turnout targets. At this point, 136k people have voted who never voted before. Dems have a 6.1% advantage.
Read 4 tweets
17 Sep
In Pennsylvania, registered Democrats have built up an advantage of 835,578 mail ballot requests over Republicans. Donald Trump carried the state by 44,292 votes.
Not every voter requesting a ballot will return it. And yes, more GOPs will vote on Election Day. But the Biden campaign will bank these votes very early, allowing them to focus their resources on a much smaller target universe through November 3rd. That's a huge advantage.
223,612 of these Democrats didn't vote in the 2016 election.
Read 5 tweets
11 Sep
A quick thread on where the vote by mail (VBM) requests stand at this point. Sorry for the megachart, I'll explain as I go! Image
First, all of the partisan data in here is modeled party, for the sake of consistency.

Looking at this column, we see that Dems lead in VBM requests in every state but 4 (AR, ID, IN, MI).

Keep in mind, this includes automatic/permanent VBM requests, which may explain MI. Image
Compare this to the partisan distribution of the 2016 electorate in these 15 states, where Dems trailed in all but 5 of the 15 states. Again, this is generic modeled partisanship of the voters who cast a ballot in '16. Image
Read 6 tweets

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