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17 Oct, 118 tweets, 24 min read
Thousands of stats/ need to knows heading into week 6🧵
*Some league wide stats
*By team/ By player stats (Scroll)
@MyFantasyLeague @TrueNorthFFB
RB points per game by team (PPR)
NO 40
GB 38.2
SF 37.4
CLE 34.3
CAR 32.7

BUF 18.1
CHI 16.8
NYG 16.5
HOU 15.3
NYJ 14.5🤡
Most RB rush yds by Team
CLE 837
MIN 733
LAR 586
LV 560
GB 559

RB receptions by Team
NO 47
CAR 40
SF/ LV 37

PIT 15
WR points per game by team (PPR)
DAL 57.2
BUF 56.2
PIT 51.5
SEA 50.6
ATL 46
JAX 45.9
ARI 43.3
CAR 42.1
KC 42
MIA 41.5

IND 25.6
BAL 25.2
SF 22.4

WR team target share %
BUF 72%
ARI 71.2%
NYJ 69.7%

TB 46.6%
SF 41.8%
LV 37.7%
9 Teams have thrown 25% or more of their targets to the RB position
*Only 2 of those teams targeted the TE position above 25% of the time

7 teams have thrown 27% or more of their targets to the TE position
*5 of those teams have thrown under 17% of their passes to the RBs
Teams whose WRs have combined for 1000+ rec yds

DET 581
SF 480

Passer Rating Delivered (min 15 tgt)
Lazard 157.1
Fulgham 156.3
Hardman 152.6
Chark 152.1
Claypool 147.9
Ced Wilson 140.1
Davante Adams 140.0
Lockett 139.3
Tim Patrick 138.8
Tyreek 135.9
Pts/ dropback leaders
Russ Wilson 0.74
Cam Newton 0.73
Aaron Rodgers 0.71
Josh Allen 0.70
Kyler Murray 0.67
Lamar Jackson 0.64
Ryan Tannehill 0.63
Pat Mahomes 0.61
Jared Goff 0.60
Justin Herbert 0.58

Daniel Jones 0.29 ranks 34th
RBs over 40 touches but under 4 YPT
Gore 3.3
Drake 3.7
Henry 3.8

Jacobs has 3.6 YPC
Mixon has 3.7 YPC
*only top 12 RBs under 4.1 YPC

4 RBs have 10+ targets & an Adot above 3
David Johnson 5.5
Aaron Jones 4.8
Jerrick McKinnon 4.5
Raheem Mostert 3.7
*Juszczyk= 4.9 on 8 tgt
5 backs have multiple end zone targets in 2020
Aaron Jones 4
Kareem Hunt 2
D’Andre Swift
Zack Moss
David Johnson

Only 2 TEs have 5 deep ball targets & they were both taken in the same draft by the same team. Hayden Hurst & Mark Andrews
Half of top 12 QBs in fantasy have multiple rushing TDs already

No QB has MORE games with 300 yds passing this season than Ryan Fitzpatrick, Joe Burrow, or Gardner Minshew (3)

Wentz, Mayfield, D. Jones, Cousins, & Stafford have all yet to have a single game w/ 300 yds passing
20% of all league turnovers have been committed by teams in the NFC East

Only 2 teams haver run over 5% of their plays from 10 personnel (3 WR sets) the Bills (21%) & the Cardinals (18%) Arizona was over 30% last season and the only team over 10% in 2019
2 players have 250 receiving yards but have yet to score
Jarvis Landry
Julian Edelman

Only 2 QBs have over 4 TDs on passes that travelled 20+ yds down field
Russel Wilson has 8
Justin Herbert has 5👀

Mike Davis, James Robinson, & Myles Gaskin=
72 catches on 78 targets this year
Almost 400 yds on offense/ game
*Up almost 60 from 2019

play volume= bottom 10 to top 5
70 plays per 60 mins (T-5th)
*Up from 64 in 2019

TDs in the red zone= 4th worst to 3rd best
13/16 red zone trips ARI scored a TD
81.3% TD rate= 3rd best
*Up from 45.3%😲
The buffet of positive regression is hitting for ARI & some of the built in advantages remain

Cardinals lead the NFL with a ridiculous 3.9 YBC/ att
*just ahead of BAL

ARI also led the NFL last year in YBC/ att (3.3)
*just ahead of BAL😉
ARIZONA runs no huddle 40% of the time
*almost twice as often as any other team

Interesting game in week 7 on the road but favored vs DAL

Defense has shown huge improvements (yds allowed/ TOP ect) but they just lost an elite pass rusher in the league in Chandler Jones
Arizona's allure stemmed from the understanding that both Kyler & HC Kliff were entering their 2nd seasons in the NFL

The family of cacti would mature together + the Addition of Nuk seemed to spell the end of square pegs in round holes at the WR position
Kliff Kingsbury has conformed a bit (Less 4 WR sets/ more 12 personnel)

KYLER MURRAY looks to be elevating his game tho
What he adds with his legs is the upside & Kyler has room to improve in the passing game... but not in the red zone lol

Kyler is 17/17 in the red zone this yr
Nipping at the Drake's heels?
Drake out carried Chase 18-3 in week 5...

Edmonds upside lies in the passing game tho
*tied 6th in targets (RBs)
*14% of Kyler's targets have gone to Chase

almost 30% of his snaps have come in the slot
*2nd most slot tgt & rec (RBs)
WR 1
Top 12 in 4/5 weeks
Leads the NFL in catches & rec yds

Nuk has 31% of his teams targets..
only 7 times in the last 5 yrs has somebody not named AB commanded 30% of their teams targets
*4 of those 7 seasons were Nuk😯
Nuk has 528 yds receiving as in on pace to become the 18th player in NFL history to have 1600 yds receiving

*Also on pace for 144 catches this season

That would not only be the most by any WR changing teams/ it would be tied for the 2nd most catches EVER
18 guys/ 22 seasons a WRs had 1600+ yds rec...
Nuk is below 12 YPR right now...

Michael Thomas is the only WR ever to have 1600+ yds
& under 12 YPR

Nuk= 85% catch rate
WR seasons w/ a catch % above 80% on 100+ targets in NFL history= 2 (Both were MT!)

😰Lfg Kyler Brees ho-ly!
CHRISTIAN KIRK is thieving work we want to go to Isabella & getting out snapped by Larry Fitzgerald😒

The high leverage work he's seeing is encouraging tho
*7th highest Air Yards per target
*Almost half his catches= in the red zone

Kirk AY/ tgt
2020= 16.3
2019= 9.5
2018= 9.8

new regime FINALLY (Quinn+ Dimitroff= 14-23 since 2018)
*Rich McKay in charge of football ops?

Falcons are #1 in Air Yards per Game (392)

In the run game they're a full yard more BEFORE contact compared to 2019
*3.2 YBC/ att (top 5 in the NFL (2.2 in 2019)
MATT RYAN has the rest of this season to correct the Falcons draft position & to prove to a new staff should keep him in their plans as opposed to turning over the identity of this team in the offseason because the Falcons find themselves in position to draft a young QB
MATT RYAN is doing his thing in the passing game (completions/ yds/ AY)
*9.7 intended air yards/ attempt (1st min 90 att)

He's also been sketchy AF at times as the capital invested on the OLine continues to underwhelm
*Ryan= only QB w/ multiple interceptions into the end zone
but he's also putting up some big plays! Breaking tackles!!
but he's NOT getting used in the passing game

*TG has the fewest targets, catches & rec yds among all top 12 RBs

Whos responsible for the big plays tho? Gurley or the team?
GURLEY is 3rd in yards after contact
& top 10 in avoided tkl per PFF (rush)

but! he is in yards BEFORE contact too
*3.3 YBC/att

coincidence we're seeing explosive plays/ a big week 5?

*Gurley's 1st game w/ 100 yds rushing since 2018
The 1st by a Falcon RB since 2018!🥳
Gurley is seeing tons of red zone carries & should the team start to move the ball better that will translate into top 5 goal line volume eventually???

but for now we'll take the big plays
*3rd most carries of 15+ yards (5)
*on pace for twice as many as he had last season
WR 3 overall despite a goose egg in week 4
15+ PPR pts in the other 4 games

Ridley had 3 top 12 performances in his rookie season & 3 more in 2019
*He has 3/5 games to begin 2020

Calvin= Only guy over 100 yds rec in 4 games
*4/5 in 2020
*3/29 games over 100 yds b4
Calvin Ridley is a high leverage station rn
Tied for the most red zone targets among WRs
Tied for the most deep ball targets & receptions (15 & 7) (PFF)

25/29 catches have been a 1st down or TD for the Ridler
*he has the most catches of 20+ yds (10)

1st in the NFL in Air Yds
6th highest AY/ tgt on next gen stats

6th in Yards after the catch among WRs!
*He’s the only guy averaging over 100 AY/ game & over 35 YAC/ game

Ridley has over 100 more YAC + AY combined than any other WR (rotoviz)
If Julio is healthy soon can RIDLEY continue to see this level of volume tho? defs not...

50 targets (5th most) a160 target pace for Ridley
*something Julio has only done 3 times in his career

Ridley is 4th in receiving yds (485) + 4 TDs
Just hasn't had that breakout some hoped

The snaps, route participation, & the deep ball targets are all among the league leaders at TE but that hasn't translated to fantasy success

under 20% targets share in the RZ & inside the 10 for HH will go up tho!

They ran the ball 596 times last year
*almost 100 more than any other team

rn they’re on pace for 135 fewer rush att

They broke the record in 2019🥳(3296 rush yds)
*Almost 1000 more than any other team in 2019

They are on pace for about 800 less rush yds
Lamar is still putting balls in the end zone (27th in pass attempts but tied 5th in passes into the end zone) & his depth of target is huge

Cousins/ Lamar are Tied for the highest intended air yards/ attempt min 90 att
So Lamar is doing some of the things that led to outlier TD % & red zone effic. last year but there's lots of room for improvement on the offense

BAL ran 69 plays/ 60 mins last year
*Tied 4th most

They're at 61 plays/ 60 right now
*2nd fewest in the NFL
Lamar will start to have some big blow up games on the ground but the team needs to start getting into their opponents RZ more!

The RBs r really suffering because of that
after being top 5 last year w/ 74 running back carries inside the red zone.. they're bot. 10 rn (12 in 5 GP)
JK Dobbins leading the Ravens in goal line carries with 2 is pretty bazar thru 5 games & the roles have been very defined in this backfield

JK Dobbins passing down role & use at the goal line is great but the team has offered league worst opportunities in both departments 🤨🤔😒
Mark Ingram, JK Dobbins, & Gus Edwards are all playing between 33% - 36% of the snaps on the season

no RB has played over 50% of the snaps in any game

no Ravens RB has finished top 12 in any week in PPR
* Just 2 top 24 finishes in PPR from this entire backfield in 2020
HOLLYWOOD BROWN is heating up

2nd highest team share of air yards (45.1%)
6th in total AY
4th highest AY/ tgt
Hollywood ranks 5th among WRs in YAC + AY

T-4th with 12 red zone targets (WRs)

Tied for the most deep ball targets (15)
*Caught all 4 that have been catchable (PFF)
Hollywood has played over 75% of the snaps in each of the past 3 games for the Ravens

speaking of snaps... MARK ANDREWS

him & Hollywood have a pretty good monopoly on this offense & specifically in terms of high leverage work (Deep passing + Red Zone/ End zone work)
Andrews & Hollywood have 49% of the teams targets
72% of the teams AY🤯
*Andrews is the TE with highest % of his teams AY (27.3%)

Still slotted in the same spot this year!
*almost 75% of Andrew's snaps have come in the slot
*Leads all TEs in targets, catches & TDs from the slot
Andrews has 15 TDs since the beginning of last season
*Most by any TE OR WR
*doesn’t rank higher than 35th in targets/ catcher or rec yds in the same span

*Leads TEs w/ 9 RZ rec & 14 RZ tgt
Leads in end zone targets & catches
*4/5 TDs have come in the end zone
Andrews has bumbled some of his uniquely huge volume of sexy work (Tied for most drops among TEs incl. a dropped TD)

He's tied for the most deep ball targets among TEs as well BTW (5) But he’s dropped 2 of those lol
*The rest of the position combined= 1 drop on DBTs

Check out these red zone numbers in 5 GP
21 red zone att (T-1st)
15 RZ TDs (2nd)

2019 red zone: 44 trips/ 25 TD

They're moving the ball and despite scoring outside of the red zone at an above average clip they're dominating inside the red zone after NOT? in 2019
^ Leads the NFL in attempts and completions in the RZ😉
Allen has 4 games of 25+ fantasy pts in 2020
*He had 2 all of last season

His 4 game streak of 25+ fantasy pts was tied for the 3rd best ever but was broken on Tuesday
Josh Allen is on pace for over 600 passes...
...Over 5000 passing yds

In other words he's on pace for almost as many passing yds as he had in 28 games heading into 2019

⭐️Josh is also on pace for almost 45 TD passes
Before 2020= 1.07 TD passes/ game
2020= 2.8 TD passes/ game😲
We know about Josh Allen's deep ball coming into form this season but his other secret weapon has been...

Allen leads the league in play action passes, yds off play action & his 7 TD passes off play action are 2 more than any other QB

but sup with the leEegs?
From 2018 til the start of 2020 only Lamar Jackson had more rush yds among QBs than Josh Allen
*Allen's 10th among QBs in rush yds right now

With the Bills having their hat in the Lev ring are they still in the RB market? Is the toe that bad for Moss?

Singeltary is getting USED
This team is putting up about 400 yds on offense/ game! *on pace for 6394 yds in 2020
*about 1000 more than 2019 (+60/ game)

The Panthers are converting on 49.2% of 3rd downs👏
That ranks top 10 +it's almost 20% higher than 2019
*up to 49% from 32% last year
TEDDY BRIDGEWATER still a bore? ...probably

He does have 20 pts in each of the past 2 weeks!
*Teddy had NEVER had back to back 20 point fantasy games across in his career (37 starts!)

In 34 starts during his tumultuous career before signing with CAR he had 4 games of 20 pts
20 point games in fantasy for TEDDY
4/34 before 2020= that’s once every 8.5 starts😂 (11.8%)
2020= 2/5 games under Rhule/ Brady

*they’re rolling out a unique offense IMO he can only get MORE comfortable

Teddy has run 8 RPOs… and he passed the ball on 7 of those!🤔🤯😉
Teddy has been the same old Teddy tho despite the offense looking a bit different in CAR

Still near the basement in intended Air Yards/ attempt (6.5) & he was dead last in his limited action last yr (6.2)

*31 of Teddy's completions have been behind the line of scrimmage (T-1st)
So it's still safe old check down Teddy
* but Only Carr has a higher completion %

& I have a lot of faith in this offense & the array of weapons... especially AFTER the catch

*Only Dak Prescott has gotten more YAC from his weapons in 2020 (799 for Teddy)
MIKE DAVIS is the RB 7
*One of the better backs on the ground & in the passing game in 2020

He's caught 30/33 tgt (206 yds)
19% of the Panthers targets have gone to Mikey D

Only Kamara has more RB catches or YAC

MD has 6 more catches than any RB not named Alvin Kamara
Davis is seeing crazy high use inside the 10 yard line too
*Tied for the 2nd most ten zone targets @pfref

50% of the Panthers targets inside the 10 yard line & 42% of the teams RZ targets have gone to Mike Davis😯🤯
*A. Theilen is the only player with a higher RZ target %
The use in the passing game for MIEK DAVIS has been excellent cuz teams are stacking the box against him in the run game

*Faced over 30% stacked boxes (8+defenders)
*one of the highest rates in the league

But to start pumpin the tires again...
Davis does not go down easy!
MIKE DAVIS is elusive AF (per PFF lol)

4.4 yards after contact/ attempt
*1st (min 30 carries)

0.33 avoided tackles/ att
*1st (min 30+ carries)

Only he and Alvin Kamara have 10+ avoided tackles running the ball & in the passing game
There is one metric Davis is beating Kamara in!

Mikey leads all RBs in avoided tackles in the passing game (12) Alvin Kamara (10) is the only other RB in double digits

Elusive AF
Top 10 RB

KC!! trade a 5th for Mike Davis after Lev underwhelms & CMC's return is on the horizon
is Mike Davis even a top 3 storyline on this team tho?

DJ Moore & Robby Anderson have been a wild ride!

& the offense is pretty condensed between the 3 names mentioned now for Carolina

DJ + ROBBY tho=
Almost 50% of the Panthers targets
Almost 80% of the air yards
Both Robby Anderson & DJ Moore have 39% of the teams air yards after week 5

imo BOTH be top 24 WRs

but let's take a look at some the opposite day usage we're seeing & some of the funny stats particularly for Robby🔥🔥🧨🧯
DJ Moore seeing so many air yards/ such a high ADOT ect is strange because he finally broke the bottle on a quick slant he took to the house that was all DJ Moore AFTER the catch
*DJ entered week 5 w/ the most catches w/out a TD

19/22 catches have gone for a 1st down/ TD for DJ
ROBBY ANDERSON is beasting tho!

He sits as a Top 10 WR in fantasy
He's 1/4 guys to have 3 games w/ 100 yds rec
*as many as he had all of last year

Buddy is top 10 in targets & catches
*& only DK Metcalf & Nuk Hopkins have more rec yds

We've seen Robby streak before tho eh...
Robby A is on pace for:
over 150 targets
115 catches
1,565 rec yds

In 4 season as a Jet Robby had between 78-114 targets
Between 42 & 63 catches
Never posted a 1000 yard rec season

*Missed just 2 games in 4 years there

What's nuts is Robby= a huge positive TD regress candi!
Robby Anderson has just the 1 TD

*As a Jet he scored a TD every 19 targets/ every 10.4 catches/ erryYy 153 yds rec

Bob is getting RZ work too
12 red zone targets is 4th among WRs (PFF)

If the RZ usage doesn't weird us out for Robby...
He has MORE yds after the catch than DJ M!
In fact only Nuk Hopkins has more YAC than Robby Anderson right now!

Robby is 1 of only 2 players with over 400 Air Yards and over 200 Yard after the catch in 2020
Curtis Samuel and/or Ian Thomas in fantasy for 2020

Pass Heaviest Teams in opponents Red Zone
Jaguars 78%
Giants 76%
Bears 74%

Avg team air yards per game:
Bears (358)

*Both Trubisky & Foles sit with high deep ball %

& the team... Nagy... as usual- Cannot run the ball
The Bears are undefeated after the super bowl MVP bowl & they play CAR this week

If competitive- the defense is probs rollin & we'd assume that team runs the ball at a decent clip but they're not

& the run blocking might be Y

YBC/ att=1.9 (One of the worst & down from 2.3)
The Bears rank top 12 in several football outsiders metrics but are 20th in PFF run blocking.. Anecdotally I didn;t think they would be a very good unit this season either

SO unless I own Allen Robinson I really don;t want much to do with this passing game & I;m not buying DMont
Really bad efficiency on the ground since Tarik Cohen went down but 14 targets & over the last 2 games

David Montgomery saw 17% of the teams targets in the last 2 weeks after enjoying just 6% of the teams targets in the 19 games before Cohen’s injury!
Montgomery is playing an elite snap share % but my concern is that outside of the beginning of 2020 Monty has really let down in YOC

He breaks tackles like few can but he accumulates VERY few yards after contact... he posts very few BIG plays...

& is the ms% sustainable?
The efficiency is wild because Montgomery does break tackles AND he has the 6th lowest stacked box % on next gen stats right now (6.4%)

& i hate to say it! Cordelle Patterson should get the passing work...
That Wheel route is hard to stop & if in space he’s scarier than DMont!

Leads the league in Air Yards since the beginning of 2018

A-Rob has the most targets in football (56)

19+ PPR pts in back to back to back games
*A-Rob had 18.6 PPR pts in weeks 1 & 2 combined

Gimme 112 catches (180+ targets) almost 1350 yds as Robinson's 2020 P
Darnell Mooney is super talented eh?
week 5 was one of the best games I've seen by a WR who had 15 rec yds😄

Foles missed him deep in the 2nd Q vs TB
*He broke Carlton D's ankles on that one

also broke up an interception by Dean on an awful deep ball by Foles in the 4th
6 end zone targets (only Mark Andrews has more)
*3 end zone TDs

Over 40% of his targets have come in the red zone
Almost 25% have come in the end zone!

made an amazing 1 handed grab in week 5... even tho like coulda/ probably shoulda used both hands😄
Bottom 5 in red zone trips/ TDs / RZ td %
On pace for fewer RZ trips/ TDs than 2019

They air airing it out but to no avail... The schemes are also getting Burrow like... killed

Sacked a league leading 22 times they've been blitzed over 70 times! lol
Weeks 2-4 he became the 1st QB ever throw for 300 yds in 3 consecutive games

He's throwing over 40 times a game! *On pace for 662 attempts in 2020
*That would rank top 10 all time!

It would be just the 3rd time ever a rookie QB threw over 600 passes year 1...
Only Andrew Luck & Carson Wentz have thrown over 600 times as a rookie
Luck= top 10 QB
Wentz= QB 24...

Currently Burrow is 4th in pass attempts
14th in passing yds
22nd in TDs

Its been a buffet of production left on the table in Cincy *Especially Air Yards & in the Red Zone
Only Russ Wilson has more throws into the end zone than Joe Burrow (19) but 15 QBs have more end zone TD passes

the deep ball accuracy is troubling & whats frustrating is how the offense refuses to insulate the offensive line & the WR position has TOO much on their shoulders
What we're seeing in CIN sort of reminds me of the Cardinals in 2019 where the schemes and weapons don;t align with... having any success/ efficiency

Burrow ranks dead last among starting QBs in YPA when targeting the WR position rn

6.6 YPA even below Darnold & Foles + Trubisky
death/ taxes/ Joe Mixon back end RB 1

but his 42.1 pts against the Jags in week 4 accounts for half his fantasy pts
*Only game Mixon has been a top 12 RB

He finished outside the top 24 RBs weeks 1, 2, & 3 (PPR)

soOo Pass work is up! red zone & goal line work is down
Mixon has just 4 carries from inside the 10 yard line (34th)
*Zero rushing TDs in the red zone let alone inside the 10 or at the goal line

Is the passing work up tho??? lol

Mixon only has a 12% market share (Low lol)
*He's just happened to have caught 19 of his 20 targets
playing 84% of his snaps from the slot
33 of his 39 targets have come in the slot
His 27 catches from the slot is tied for the most in the NFL

I thought his role would expand or become more necessary but instead he's seemed to take a back seat in some games
TEE fuckin HIGGINS!!

Already top 20 in air yards

Tee & AJ are tied for the 12th highest Air Yards / tgt
14.9 ay/ TGT

Higgins= 25.5% share of Bengals AY vs 28.8% for AJG

Tee Higgy also played the highest % of the snaps among WRs in week 5... and I loved him in the draft proc!
*playing thru an injury
an inj that plagued him to start the season..

📈AJ has THE most catches in the NFL without a TD (34)

Funny since AJG has 6 end zone targets (T-3rd / WRs)

But ya he's caught ZERO of them obvz if he has no TDs lol

AJG= 17% ms
top 12 in AY
Scoring 31.2 ppg on offense! (top 5)
Scored 20.9 ppg in 2019

73.7% TD rate inside the red zone
they're on pace for 60.8 red zone trips
*44.8 RZ TDs lol👏🔥

Run Heaviest Red Zone teams
Vikings 72%
Browns 65%
Browns ran 393 times in 2019 (1901 yds)
2020 pace: 550

Cleveland is on pace for over 3000 rushing yds lol🤯

They lead the NFL in team carries & rush yds (by 138 yds) *Without a rushing QB

12 team carries of 20+ yds (1st)
Twice as many as every team not named Steelers or Ravens
Stefanski's Browns have the volume but efficiency too eh

They’re 5.5 YPC as a team ranks 2nd behind BAL but they're #1 in RB YPC

Browns have the most RB red zone carries as a team
After the Browns won 32-23 over Indy in a battle of teams who had won 3 straight it will be exciting to see them do battle against the Steelers in week 6...

A battle of 2 teams on 4 game winning streaks🥳
Baker Mayfield is operating like Kirk Cousins last year only Baker is holding onto the ball for 3.19 seconds on avg😲
*Longest per nextgen stats

The injury is worrisome but if he gets thru the game vs PIT he should be aiight

as a fantasy asset tho? This offense is too run heavy
KAREEM HUNT is king right now
RB 8 overall in PPR

12 runs of 10+ yards ranks 3rd among RBs just behind Dalvin Cook & teammate Nick Chubb who’s still tied for the most in football❤️💔

Hunt should be getting more receiving work tho!
Just 11% ms and
only 63 rec yds right now💔
has the fewest targets, catches & receiving yds among all top 10 RBs in PPR🤔
*luckily he has 3 rec TDs tho lol

Hunt= 14 TD receptions on 127 career catches
*only player ever with over 50+ carries- under 150 catches & 14 rec TDs 🙄
Since coming into the league though only 2 backs have more receiving TDs than Kareem Hunt
*James White on almost 100 more catches
*CMC on over twice as many catches
*Both have 1 more rec TD than Hunt

It's a great marriage of usage & an elite nose for the end zone
All 3 of Hunt's receiving TDs have come while the Browns have been inside the 10 yard line

Buddy is locked into 20+ touches while Chubb is out but both were RB 1s together!

PS D'Ernest goes to school barely played until the 4th quarter in week 5
Almost 40% of the Browns air yards this year belong to OBJ (39.6%) & Top 10 in total AY

OBJ is seeing the deep passing work & is doubling up in the high leverage department

*Tied most red zone targets among WRs (PFF)

SO not the same volume for OBJ... but 📈
Leads the NFL in catches without a TD (21)

He's on pace far fewer Air Yards & deep targets but the high leverage work has dropped off a cliff!

Landry has 0 targets inside the 10 yard line through 5 games after having the 2nd most among WRs last season
Landry has 0/13 Browns targets inside the 10 yards line
*Last year he had 11/37

from almost 30% of his teams targets inside the 10 to 0%

The rush to pass ratio + OBJ ascending finally + health + TE target % = lots of obstacles

DAK is down and that is devastating

Dak had THE Most passing yards EVER thru 4 games

1st QB in history with 3 consecutive games of 450+ yds passing

Dak was On pace for 483 completed passes
That would have broken any of Drew Brees 3 records
Dak is/ WAS😥on pace
That woulda obliterated Peyton's record from 2013

So all we can say is that we possibly got robbed of history
but hot take time

Dak or the Kellen Moore system!?!? lol (Defs mostly Dak)
Only Seattle is a higher scoring offense
*Cowboys are scoring over 32 points a game

Almost 2500 yards on offense (over 400 more than KC)

Dallas is on pace to break the NFL record set by the 2011 Saints for the most yards on offense! EVER
SoOo SuUuUre the red rifle comes in... shoots all those dreams right in the FACE

Doesn’t mean Dalton can’t be a top 15 QB tho

DALLAS leads the NFL in completed air yards... we know
They also lead the NFL in Yard after the Catch!
They’ve been able to win both ways thru the air
The pre snap motion/ play action & the play calling gives me faith in DAL having success… not on the level they’ve had up until this point

Plus they’ve been such a BAD defense the pace is off the charts!

*the pace comes with an asterisk (DAL= tied for league lead in turnovers)
The Cowboys have constantly been behind in games & have had to throw the ball & play fast

DAL= most plays on offense this year
* But it hasn't hurt their efficiency
Dallas is 3rd in Yards per Play

Dalton also has a potent array of weapons😍🥰
I think Dak’s accomplishments have overshadowed the pass catchers a tad...

Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, & Michael Gallup... ALL on pace for 1000+ yards receiving

Amari & CeeDee are both top 10 in the NFL in receiving
* BOTH top 12 WRs in fantasy foosball!
Dak going down makes everything we think/ everything we've seen from these pass catchers more true going fwd

Like Amari almost fooled us over the previous 18 months eh?

but he’s been old school Amari already actually
He is a top 12 WR...
*He’s only SCORED as a top 12 WR once
It's to bad cuz Amari Cooper was due for big positive TD regression but without Dak? Being Amari?

Will Dalton key in on Amari?
Will he attack teams top corners?

Was the final drive after Dak went down anything to draw off?
Michael Gallup sure had Dalton’s eye on that final drive in week 5!

Problem is Gallup is well below CeeDee in targets
*To pay off now... Gallup almost HAS TO become the AJ Green deep threat for Andy eh?

& remember the target share is skewed but the Air Yards % is FAR closer!
Gallup's fantasy points per touch keep him in the upside discussion tho for FF & if Cooper struggles... Gallup could capitalize

Michael Gallup remains a buy in dynasty too
* scenario 1= odd man out at the end of 2021 season
*scenario 2= Cowboys could trade Gallup THIS offseason
I think CEEDEE LAMB gets the biggest boost here!

He quietly leads the team in receiving right now!
Lamb's 5th in the NFL in rec yds actually

Ceedee Lamb is on pace for 1386 yds receiving…
That would be the most receiving yards by a rookie in NFL history post merger.. wait wat
There’s a couple reasons I’ll go to bat for Lamb

#1 the red zone and end zone NICHE!
He’s immediately assumed that role

Lamb has 4 end zone targets
The rest of the cowboys… Have 5 combined
*Nobody else has more than 1

LAMB is THE guy when they pass the ball in close
CEEdEE LAMB is also the slot guy!

Over 90% of his snaps in slot

*Lamb is leading the league in targets, catches, & rec yds from the slot

So I’ll have the Lamb please! I think Dalton will too
& if dynasty owners have it on the menu
I’ll pay almost whatever the price is tbh!
A lot of people are saying it’s super Zeke time?
*I'm not sold on that

not saying Zeke won;t be a top 5 RB
I mean he’s scored 6 TDs this season
*Over 17 PPR pts all 5 games
*Top 12 RB in 4 of 5 games

But... the identity of this team
it has shifted

Kellen Moore has changed the Cowboys
Their O Line is no longer head & shoulders above
Their D is... useless?

I dont know if the team is good enough anymore
to be in position to control the game via the run

They sure haven’t been able to this year
Zeke's rushing production is taking a major hit!

he had 7 games over 100 yds rushing last year
*Zeke has ZERO this year

5 straight games under 100 yds rushing
*Zeke has never gone 6 straight under 100 yds rushing
The blue & silver lining for ZEKE... This team is all aboot the passing game

*Even if Zeke were to experience career lows in rushing production… He would just need to keep up his career high pace in the receiving game

That has been a huge positive if you own Zeke in 2020
ZEKE has almost 15% of the targets
In THE most VOLUMINOUS passing game😉

Only AK has more targets among RBs
+ Zeke’s on pace for over 75 catches!

& buddies still seeing elite red zone/ goal line number
*League leading
seeing 13% target share
& only behind Lamb with his 8 RZ targets

but he will take a hit when the offense dips
Schultz has been boom or bust

Games of 23.8 & 17.2 PPR pts
*But under 9 pts in the other 3/ coming off his worst game in week 5 vs NYG
@threadreaderapp unroll please🤞🤞😂

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More from @TnfFtyrell

18 Oct
*Scoring almost 30 ppg on offense
11.4 more ppg more than last season🤡(18.1)

They’ll score more points on offense in 10 games this year than all of 2019 on that pace

Converting 48.3% of 3rd downs (top 10)
Up a tad from 34.4% last season LMAO (27th)
Movin the ball in PIT
In 2019 they scored 14 TDs on 40 red zone trips
*Steelers had the fewest RZ TDs / 2nd fewest RZ trips

This year they’re on pace for 20 more red zone trips
*Twice as many RZ TDs

35% TD rate in the red zone in 2019 (DEAD LAST lol)
60% in 2020
The Runs game has experienced a 180
*Literally doing twice as good BEFORE contact in the run game this year
*2019= 1.4 YBC/ att (DEAD LAST)
*2020= 3.0 YBC/ att (top 10)

Steelers have 7 runs of 20+ yds as a team
*they had 9 all of 2019
*2 runs of 40+ already after just 1 last yr
Read 35 tweets
17 Oct
GREEN BAY PACKERS have still yet to turn the ball over (Only team)

They're the highest scoring offense putting up almost 40 pts/ game

That's an extra 2 TDs on offense compared to last year
*38 ppg in 2020 vs 23.5 in 2019

They continue to copy the 49ers (21 personnel)
Rodgers has 25 fewer completed passes than any other QB with more than double digit TD passes

10 years ago A-Rod put up over 25 ppg in fantasy for the 1st & only time... until 2020 so far!

Not sur ethe deep attempts are sustainable but his efficiency could be?
AKA Baby kittle
*I think Leflure & Shanahan are BFFs too lol

but Robert Tonyan scored a hattrick on MNF in week 4

He’s worked out with, lived with, & grown his hair like George Kittle who has never scored multiple times in a game!!
Read 131 tweets
14 Oct
The New York Jets, their WOAT head coach & imperfect RB marriages🧵

Gase is the WOAT and I'll show it🤡🐐
The Jets have been an unwinnable RB environment
Lev Bell has been on both ends of a spectrum😕
Frank Gore is the guy.. & it's gross🤢
🧵@TrueNorthFFB @MyFantasyLeague
The Jets have pretty much been the worst offense in football since 2019

& it is Adam fn Gase🤡

outside of 3 seasons spent with Peyton Manning (When it was all Peyton) Gase has been an unmitigated disaster

I wrote this when he was hired by the Jets...
Gase has been dead last in play volume 2/4 seasons as a HC and has paired that with some of the worst yards PER play figures

win the turnover battle/ win in the trenches/ who pressures the QB more? who won on 3rd DOWN?
* Easy criteria for winning & losing football games
Read 25 tweets

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