Ty Profile picture
17 Oct, 131 tweets, 25 min read
GREEN BAY PACKERS have still yet to turn the ball over (Only team)

They're the highest scoring offense putting up almost 40 pts/ game

That's an extra 2 TDs on offense compared to last year
*38 ppg in 2020 vs 23.5 in 2019

They continue to copy the 49ers (21 personnel)
Rodgers has 25 fewer completed passes than any other QB with more than double digit TD passes

10 years ago A-Rod put up over 25 ppg in fantasy for the 1st & only time... until 2020 so far!

Not sur ethe deep attempts are sustainable but his efficiency could be?
AKA Baby kittle
*I think Leflure & Shanahan are BFFs too lol

but Robert Tonyan scored a hattrick on MNF in week 4

He’s worked out with, lived with, & grown his hair like George Kittle who has never scored multiple times in a game!!
Robert Tonyan has as many TDs in 4 games this season as Kittle’s career high in a season

Tonyan has 27 catches on 35 targets in his career & 7 TDs

Double hattrick!
Rob Ton’s scored in 3 straight games now

George Kittle has never scored in back to back games (48 games played)
Has 3 slot targets for 3 catches – 3 TDs

Every top 10 TE in PPR has at least 27 targets…
Except the TE 5 Robert Tonyan who has 14 targets
Texans are on pace for 1353 rush yds as a team…
over 650 fewer than last season

Their pace of 326 team carries would be over 100 less than their 2019 total

Meanwhile they've allowed the most rush yds (over 140 yds/ game to the RB position)
2nd most passes that have gone for 20+ yds

7.8 completed Air Yards per Attempt in 2020 (Top 5)

In 2017 D-Wat led the NFL in CAY/ att (8.2)
In 2018 Watson was 5th (6.8)
In 2019 he fell to 11th (6.5 CAY/att)

That’s a deep passing FLOOR you just can’t find
just 11% of the targets & the other DJ is back in the fold

DJ 1= only RB above 5 air yds/ tgt (min 10 tgt)
*9.7 YPR

He's also avg over 3.7 YPC for the 1st time since 2016 lol

DJ was just shy of his 1st game of 100 yds rushing since week 11 of 2018 last week..
David Johnson has just 1 game over 100 yds rushing in the last 38 games going back to 2016

Duke Johnson has never had a 100 yard rush game in over 80 games in the NFL & in almost 20 games now as a Texan Duke has never had double digit carries in a game *10+ touches in 4/19 games
WILL FULLER & BRANDIN COOKS combined for 20/35 targets in week 5

Will Fuller has 2 games over 100 yds receiving this year meanwhile Cooks is back baby!
*8 catches of 20+ yds for Brandin Cooks (T-3rd)
Colts are 28th in Average team air yards per game (231)

Phillip River's is bringing this whole offense down
Which has led to the team being predictable run heavy
Which has led to tons of stacked boxes

But the other thing is… this Colts offensive line!
We all kinda assumed the Colts would be an ELITE run blocking unit this season...
*on Football outsiders they’re BOTTOM 10 everywhere
*After ranking top 12 across the board in 2019

So the offensive line shoulders a bit of the blame here
JONATHAN TAYLOR underwhelming too...

He’s been one of the least elusive RBs
He’s Near the basement in missed tackles forced, brkn tackles & AFTER contact per attempt

So the QB play is allowing teams to load up
The line isn’t dominating the trenches
And JT hasn't transcended it
That’s all how somebody as talented and athletic as Jonathan Tay can have such poor efficiency
*One of the worst YPC in all of football

But there's multiple avenues to JT elevating his fantasy stock going forward...

He’s still playing under 50% of the snaps on the season...
Johnny T has only seen 52% of the Colts carries this year!
*17 RBs have a higher share of their teams rush attempts

SO there’s a lot of room for him to see MORE rushing volume

Feels like just Frank Reich stand in the way of THAT (MG/ Danny Woodhead styles)
JONATHAN TAYLOR has the red zone & goal line work… *top 10 in red zone AND goal line carries
*push his value UP in games the Colts are FAVORED***

but we want MO
Taylor= 8 carries inside the 10 yard line
Hines= 5

Nyheim Hines has the 2nd most carries inside the 10 without a TD
What I want is Taylor to start getting WAY MORE involved in the passing game!

On que... 25% of Rivers targets ARE going to the RB position this year

But Johnathan Taylor is seeing just 8% of the teams targets😠😡

and I can make as much sense of that as the 10 zone work...
Taylor’s caught 12 of 13 targets
He has just over 100 yds rec on the season
*Over 140 Yard after the catch in the receiving game lol
-50 AY or whatever… is the answer to that riddle BTW

But among all RBs w/ 10+ targets
JT’s 11.8 Yards AFTER the catch per reception ranks 1st!
So lots of room for JONATHAN TAYLOR to elevate from RB 2 status to an RB 1

the DYNASTY aspect is super neat eh? Like this was his perceived upside! Marlon Mack out of the way...

but Taylor has been a top 12 RB this season... ZERO times
Has not been a top 12 WR in any week yet this season

Since 2016 he’s been a top 12 WR 9/45 games
*Just over 20%
*2016 he did it in 6/16 games

T.Y.= double digit PPR pts once this year

all that despite 21% of the team targets
* T.Y. is 1/3 foo's over 30 targets/ 0 TDs
tons of snaps due to the inj's
slot role= valuable for RIvers & his RZ ms% reflects that

MO ALIE-COX should be their like.. #1 target in the intermediate in the passing... he was rolling & in week 5 they recognized that by playing Mo the 3rd most... among Colts TEs😡
The Jags have 3 rush TDs as a team which might not sound like an accomplishment but it’s as many as they had in all of 2019!

Ironically they are THE Pass Heaviest Team inside the opponents Red Zone (78%)
is completing 70% of his passes
*completing 74% when targeting WRs
*Ranks top 6 in targets, pass yds & TDs to WRs
*2nd in total cmpltd passes
*On pace for 438 which would make him only the 5th QB to ever complete that many passes in a season
*11th most all time
Minshew is also on pace for over 4500 yds passing & over 30 TD passes but he might NOT be the Jaguars success story of 2020

AKA the top 10 RB

J-Rob= Most yds/ scrimmage by a UDFA most merger thru 5 games in NFL history

& the use the passing game eh😍
Robinson will score IF the team can get in close...
James is 1/4 players with 100% of his teams GL carries (but just 1 GL rush)

Has caught 19/22 targets
and the 12% ms IS encouraging cuza CT's presence

Robinson has obliged... his 9.6 YPR ranks top 5 among RBs with 10+ rec
Robinson has the most rec yds without a TD among RBs

and his rec yds have been all him...
He’s 3rd in Yards after the catch among RBs
***Over 10 YAC/ rec

He did lose a fumble in week 5 & Chris Thompson is always a cap in the passing game so long as he;s healthy... but Im BUYING
KEELAN COLE is playing a lot & man I love him as a talent
7 RZ receptions this season
& BTW Conley is 3/9 on RZ targets

Conley's Air Yards would go to Keelan Cole if he ever fucked off too eh

BTW COllin Johnson has gotten his dirty D in the mix in the end zone even
So the WR position is where it's at & if we can condense this pass game a bit LFG

super unique & his ability after the catch is high end
*Top 15 among WRs in YAC

for dynasty tho... a guy who will rely on YAC so heavily we can;t let his value jump the shark😥
We think of the Chiefs as a vertical passing game sometimes but their YAC monsters cuza their speed

2nd most team yds after the catch in 2020
*3rd most team YAC in 2019
*3rd best YAC/ rec in 2020 (6.5) / 3rd best in 2019 (5.9)
PAT MAHOMES has yet to explode in the deep passing arena but HE WILL

right now he does have the most pass attempts inside the 10 yard line & his 10 TD passes ranks 1st inside the 10

^ Good to see since they're down in TD % outside of their opponents Red zone
had forced 7 missed tackles in week 1
he has 9 since 9

& almost all his high leverage work came in week 1 too

still CEH has twice as many carries inside the 10 yard line (10) as any other player without a TD in that area of the field
Edwards- Helaire is at biggest risk of losing pass ctaching work to Lev Bell
CEH has a 14% ms right now
*4th in targets among RBs
*5th in rec yds among RBs

Almost 10 YPR
*only behind Kamara in YPR among RBs (min 10 rec)
& CEH has the 6th most YAC among RBs
We did see Darrell Williams get 5 targets last week while CEH had 8... But my concern is that I have little faith in Lev being able to contribute in any facet OTHER than the passing game

All my thoughts on Lev are in the middle of this long thread (Sowy!)
Top 15 among WRs in YAC
Top 5 in YAC/ rec (8.6) min 10 rec

6th most targeted player in week 5🕺🔫
Set to be the TE 1 overall AGAIN🐐

Double digit pts in PPR & Top 12 in 5/5 games

Kelce is the only TE over 300 yds rec
*He has over 400! (405)
*On pace for almost 1300 yds rec

even tho he doesn’t lead in targets or catches among TEs
24% of Mahomes targets have gone to Kelce & a lot of his production= all T-Rav!

He leads all TEs in YAC
*Kelce is top 5 among non RBs in yards after the catch!

He's also been the main beneficiary of the ten zone work
*Kelce= only guy in the NFL w/ over 5 ten zone targets (7)
Last year they were 7th best on 3rd down (43.8%)
This year they are converting on 3rd down almost 10% more! 52.3%

OAKLAND’s offense last year was the 9th lowest scoring
This year the LV offense is scoring over 10 ppg more!
Over 30 ppg in 2020 vs 19.6 in 2019!
Kudos to the upset of the early season with Vegas beating KC 40-32 in week 5 to go above .500 again

& w/ all that steam! They go on bye LMAO

QB 12
a QB 1😆

Carr has been a top 15 QB just once in 6 years in his career but 19 ppg in fantasy is a career high right now
Derek goes deep eh!
2018= 6.8 Intended Air Yards Per Attempt
2019= 6.6 IAY/ att
2020= Carr has 9.9 IAY/ att lol

Throwing deep just 8.6% of the time tho still!!
*22nd among QBs w/ 100+ drop backs

So is it a different offense? Is it the weapons?
Well not really, Carr is completing over 73% of his passes (1st) & the efficiency on the deep passing makes it look more appealing than it actually is

The Raiders still wanna live it up.. AFTER the catch
*LV is on pace for 2365 team YAC
*That would have ranked 1st last season
The WR position & Derek have a thing goin' on tho
big time!

Carr's ranks #1 in the NFL averaging 12.4 YPA when targeting the WR position !
*That was at 8.4 YPA when targeting WRs in 2019

#1 in NFL passer rating when targeting the WR position (147.8) and completing 75% of passes
drafted 1st round as an outlier from a lack of volume perspective..

Jacobs now leads the NFL in rush attempts & touches

He’s not getting a ton of help either
*Jacobs is 37th in YBC/ att on pref
*But top 10 in yds after contact (204)
Jacobs is showing to be as elusive as ever still
*2 RBs have 18+ avoided tackles on PFF in the run game
Dalvin Cook 24 & Josh Jacobs 22

yet Jacobs has no 100 yard rushing game this year!

Jacobs has also scored in bunches this year eh
Back again to JACOBS draft profile.. beyond the draft Cap.
his upside in the pass game was the fantasy buy

& now JJ’s on pace for almost 50 catches
*28 more than he had in his rookie season

on 35 career catches:
8.5 YAC/ rec

But why doesn;t it feel like any of thats true!? lol

3 of Ruggs 6 catches have gone for 40+ yds

Ruggs is the only player in the NFL with 3 catches of 40+ yds this season

He was a top 12 WR in week 5 on 3 targets… You hear about players who can make your fantasy week on one play...
HENRY RUGGS ranks 1st in the NFL in air yards per target AND in yards after the catch per reception (min 10 tgt)

but as we alluded to in the draft process he can do it after the catch arguably as good as anybody in the class
*thru 5 games Ruggs= 10.7 YAC/ rec
*21.5 AY/ tgt
*leads all TE’s in team target share % + total targets + catches

Jason Witten is a ten zone vulture like people think exist at the RB position but don't really anymore

Herbert is a top 10 QB in PPG for fantasy
*moves ahead of Tua in dynasty

Yes he does! the claim to FF fame for Tua is the sweet sweet deep ball but if Herbert has confirmed that HE has that in his arsenal and then some... not to mention the legs!😍
Remember Herbert had the really young b/out age + he was drafted top 10 in the NFL & he broke 4.7 on the gun at 6'6- 230 lbs! ✔️✔️✔️

& we don;t have to cite his deep ball passer rating or ADot from his college career because it's on NFL tape already L's & G's! 🥳🤗
JUSTIN HERBERT has 3 TD passes of 50+ yards already…
The most in the NFL

4 was the most by any QB last season!
*Only 7 QBs had as many 50+ yard TDs in all 2019.. as Herbert has to start his career here

And Speaking of starting his career…
No QB in NFL history has ever started their career with back to back to back games over 300 yds passing…
Herbert was 10 yards shy of that feat in the 4th Q with the ball in week 4 & he threw an interception lol

but he looks special
- deep ball confirmed
- legs will come
JOSHUA KELLEY has been overrated on the ground & underrated in the passing game

39% of the snaps this season
*out snapped by Justin Jackson week 5 after costly fumbles in BOTH weeks 3 & 4

He’s sort of in a Sony Michel like role
& Kelley is facing Over 20 % stacked boxes
My concern is his & Frank Gore's seasons are too identical🤣

Kelley's 3.2 YPC is tied w/ Gore for 2nd worst
also tied spending just 2.6 seconds behind the LOS

Kelley is only behind Gore among all players with 60+ touches In total fantasy pts

*NOT super valuable touches
JOSHUA KELLEY has been trusted to get the ball again after those fumbles though and he is seeing the red zone work

Kelley has all 10 of the Chargers RZ carries+ all 4 of the teams goal line carries since Ekeler's injury

The pleasant surprise is what he's offered in the pass gam
JOSHUA KELLEY has caught 8/8 targets this year
*over 12 Yds after the catch per reception!
*Part of our eye opening at the Sr. Bowl related to his pass catching chops tpp!

PS Ekeler caught 17/17 targets😉
Jackson was out snapped in week 4 by Kelley 57% to 40%

Target per snap % in his career is great

Team likes Jackson

Justin Jackson has the wiggle!
Joshua Kelley 71 touches / 10 avoided tackles
Justin Jackson 133 career touches/ 30 avoided tackles
per PFF

KEENAN ALLEN is the fanatsy worlds biggest regret!
He left week 5's game after scoring a TD with back spasms but he'll be... back for this upcoming week
Keenan Allen is top of the food chain
we can argue Hunter Henry vs Mike Williams
we can cross the bridge of all 3 of those guys being healthy & Austin Ekeler returning when we HAVE to

but Keenan Allen led the NFL in team target % heading into week 5
*Huge YAC & Air Yards this yr
Hunter Henry finally scored and now he's at 50% tgt share inside the 10 yard line

If we had to argue him VS Mike Williams... Henry gets bonus points because he’s a TE right

He might be more valuable in fantasy than Mike Williams
just because of the position he plays
Mike WIlliams gets bonus points for upside...

His skill sets just aligns perfect with Justin Herbert's
& this offense is producing the most deep ball TDs in the league

Williams is a spectacular flex play or a guy who can help you play catchup or pull an upset in any given week

The Rams are 3rd in yds on offense
*over 400 yds/ game
*Top 10 every season under McVay

Rams= 4 red zone trips per game (top 10)
*Under McVay they've ranked 6th/ 1st/ 2nd in RZ trips
*2nd/ 3rd/ 2nd in team TDs inside the RZ since 2017

& the Ram are a' Runnin!
The Rams have the 2nd most rush att as a team (169) They’re on pace for over 540 this season
*Or 140 more than last season w/ Gurley there

Ram's are also on pace for 2234 rush yds as a group *would have ranked 3rd last season
*LAR= 7th fewest rush yds in 2019
The rush TDs the Rams are famous for have still been there (9 rush TDs in 5 games is tied most)

But they're more explosive
*2 runs of 40+ yds already after being 1 of 5 teams with 0 in 2019

& thank goodness because by design they won;t be moving the ball through the air!
The Rams average 187 team air yards per game (31st)

Rams rely heavily on YAC + play action
*Lots of short passes can drive down averages...
*But the Rams are crushing the league at 7.0 YAC/ rec
*They’ve ranked 6th in YAC/ rec in 2019 & 2018

*most total YAC as a team in 2019
A huge part of the Rams success this yr is their 3rd down efficiency (49.3% on 3rd down in 2020 up from 39.9%)

JARED GOFF is why the offense... is what is
I said they wont move the ball thru the air...
I did NOT mean they don;t get chunk plays!

Goff= 3rd most 20+ yrd passes
Goff is staying in the system & it's workin'

Goff & Brees= only QBs under 6 intended air yards/ attempt... but Goff is completing over 70% of his passes and has the 2nd best adj. completion %

2nd lowest Adot
*above Brees
*below Teddy
But only Dak has gotten more YAC
so Yards after the catch... and PLAY ACTION for Goff
48.5% of Goff's passes have been play action
Cam is the only other QB above 40%

Only Josh Allen has more play action passes
& 5 of Goff’s 8 TD passes have come off play action😲

QB 10 overall in fantasy 💸💰💲
Seeing almost 25% stacked boxes but also tied for the least amount of time spent behind the LOS on avg

There's a lot left on the table from the RBs for fantasy still & some of the stuff we see with Hendo has to do with WHERE he's seen his touches
Henderson has been used in high leverage situations🥳

Only Ezekiel Elliot & Derrick Henry have more 10 zone carries than Henderson
*Only Zeke has more GL rushing TDs 😲

In the passing game the RB ms% hasn;t corrected as much as we'd hoped but Henderson is above 10 YAC/ rec🥰
Had a 46 yard run in his return (finished 9 rush 61 yds)
*But no work in the red zone
*Wasn’t targeted in the passing game
*Wasn't even afforded the hot hand in week 5 really
man I love WRs from the Rams

Only 2 wide receivers have 15+ catches & over 8 yards after the catch PER reception
Woods 8.7 YAC/ rec (23 rec)
Kupp 8 YAC/ rec (28 rec)

*Last year among WRs with 60+ catches Godwin finished 1st in YAC/ rec...
Woods was 2nd
Kupp was 3rd
25% target share
3rd in YAC among WRs

*Just under 63% of his snaps have come in the slot (down) but he’s caught 20/22 targets while playing in the slot

21% target share
6th in YAC among WRs
He’s caught 8/9 targets this season for 141 yds
Over 60% of his yds= after the catch (91)
11.4 YAC/ rec lol

Half his catches and 63.8% of rec yds this season came in week 5

Hard to predict when his production comes & you can’t rely on spiked weeks from him either
Miami is tied as the 2nd Run Heaviest Red Zone team (65% run inside opponents 20)

MIA is top 5 in the NFL in red zone trips

Pts on offense
2019= 19.1
2020= 27.2
*Good old extra TD + extra point PER game

3rd down
2019= 34.3% (28th)
2020= 44.3%
getting the passing work we all thought Kenny Drake was getting last year lmao

Gaskin is T-4th in RB targets
He's caught 23/25 targets

Myles leads ALL players in catches without a rec TD

since MIA is 2-3 the 15% target share Gaskin has could increase in value too
GASKIN for trouble!
can teams keep selling out for the run vs Fitzmagic!?

*over 30% stacked boxes (8+) one of the highest rates in the league for Myles but aint no thang

only Dalvin & Jacobs have more avoided tackles per PFF (17)
14.7 air yards per target

5 of his 10 catches= 20+ yds
*as many as Devante Parker

Both his TDs have come in the red zone though!
*half his catches too

Preston WIlliams is Top 5 in fantasy pts/ touch (min 5 rec)
Tied for the 8th most catches among TEs but 3rd in receiving yards

17% target share & 24.2% of the Dolphins Air Yards
*only Andrews has a higher AY %

Mike Gesicki is 3rd in total TE Air Yards and in AY/ tgt
Boom/ Bust Gesicki tho
*8.5 pts or less in 3/5 games (PPR)
*27+ 14 in his other 2

Juicy usage!!
Gesicki= highest % of his snaps from the slot among all TEs (2019 too)

*Just behind Andrews in Adot (TE / min 10 tgt)

Only behind Andrews and Graham in end zone targets
they are predictably... VERY run heavy
*they are THE run Heaviest Red Zone team
*72% of their plays in the red zone have been runs!

Vikings are 3rd in team carries, rush yds & rush TDs
The schemes and line are doing a far better job this season too

MIN is 4th in YBC/ att at 3.6😲 (2.2 YBC/ att in 2019)

Highest Adot
Leads the league in deep ball completions!
but he has the highest interception % too LOL

it's been uber run & play action in Minny
Cousins is tied for league lead in Intended air yds /att
*1st in completed AY/ att (8.5)

+ 6 of his 8 TD passes have come on play action

but is this polar extreme offense effective?
RB 2 behind Kamara & will miss week 6 (week 7 bye)

4th in carries
*112 more rush yds than anyone
His 7 rushing TDs makes him the only player over 5

Just crushing in YBC & YOC
*leading the league in avoided tackles looking as elusive as ever

A cushy stay on the horizon if you own the Rattison
But if u don’t own Dalvin... You will have to go back to your own domicile of a RB room probably after the week 7 bye

But can he have standalone value in fantasy??
He's been involved & the situation is ripe
The kubiak scheme is providing some serious free yards in the run game

Alexander Mattison is only behind Raheem Mostert in Yards BEFORE Contact/ att right now
*& Alex M was top 10 last year in YBC/ att

So you add in high leverage work/ Dalvin's durability and/or snap % cap
What high leverage work?

The Vikings are averaging over 6 red zone rush attempts by RBs PER GAME right now!
*only behind the Browns

The Vikings RBs had 99 red zone carries by RBs
*That was 21 more than any other team

so Mattison could start to get in the end zone MO!
Since being drafted Ally Mattison is tied dead last with just 2 touchdowns! Among all RBs with 150+ touches since the start of last season

a Bit by design obvz.. bringing in Cook to close but if/ when he misses time we can anticipate high TD totals from the Vikings lead back
for fun... MATTISON gets teh Falcons in week 6

They bleed their fantasy points to RBs via the passing game...

*The Vikings RBs have quietly seen 25% of the teams targets

Its just VERY hard to tell cuz Minnesota joins Baltimore as 1 of 2 teams throwing under 30 times per game!!
ADAM THEILEN is Diggs'n his new role!
WR 2 overall
*3 games w/ 25+ fantasy pts already after just 1 all of last season (PPR)

6 TDs! Tied with Mike Evans for the most
*equals his 2019 total!
*6/8 Vikings rec TDs have gone to AT!
The TD totals for THEILEN isn;t lucky

3rd most red zone targets among WRs (13) (PFF)
*Leads the WR position in RZ receptions
*All 6 his TDs have come in RZ

*2nd in end zone tgt
*5 of his 6 TDs have been on EZ targets
The red Zone has been ALL Adam Theilen

Only 1 player has above 45% of their teams red zone targets...
*Adam Theilen has 70% of the Vikings red zone targets

60% ten zone target share too
he's scored 3 TDs on 3 targets inside the 10 ayrd line this year
His RZ stranglehold makes his overall 33% target share look shitty lol💩
*but it's not.. it's 2nd highest in football

but to shed light on the low volume passing attack in Minny... AT is only 10th in total targets
Adam Theilein is actually NOT on pace for career highs in anything other than TDs
*Oh and fantasy pts lol

Air Yard station!
Theilen leads the NFL with a 48.4% share of his teams Air Yards
*He had just 18% of the AY with Diggs on the team in 2019 (Diggs was 3rd at 41% AY)
Only DK Metcalf & Calvin Ridley have more AY than AT
*BTW Theilen did have 1400+ AY in both 2017 & 2018

One think Adam Theilen doesn;t have goin for him is the team lead in receiving...

JUSTIN JEFFERSON holds that title!
*Both of them have multiple 100 yard rec games already!
JEFFERSON has put up some big plays though
*8 catches of 20+ yds (T-3rd most in NFL)
*& it's mostly all him while AT gets the air yds

Justin has 19 rec on 25 tgt
*371 yds (19.5 YPR AJ Brown style)

Has to sustain some unsustainable figures but he’s on pace for 1187 yds
I don't think JEFFERSON finishes 6th all time ahead of Michael Thomas in 2016 for rookie rec yds

The production has been off the back of unrepeatable efficiency...
3 players have 20+ targets AND avg over 12.5 YPT
DK Metcalf (12.5) Chase Claypool (13.1) Justin Jefferson (14.8)🤯
That is so crazy… Pro ref has target data back to 1992
Remember JEFFERSON= 80 target pace + 14.8 YPT!

So in almost 30 years there’s only 2 WRs EVER
to post a YPT above 12 in a season they had 50+ targets (AJB last year 12.5 YPT on 84 tgt & Kenny Still 12.8 YPT on 50 tgt exact.
JUSTIN JEFFERSON has had some deep passing work too & by golly he's taken advantage
*caught 6/7 deep ball targets

17 WRs have more deep ball targets
JJs 6 deep ball receptions= 4th most
*3rd in rec yds off deep balls

so been VERY impressed
great usage + 19% ms

but I worry lol
I should skip New England until next week but Cam is still king lol he still leads all QBs in goal line carries & in red zone carries by 4!

*Cam Newton is 2nd in fantasy pts per drop back

I just don;t want to get started on the RB room😤
sell DAMIEN HARRIS... like every RB who doesn't catch passes?

The roles are just SO defined in this backfield

I already hate having to try & predict how the game plays out... guess a Patriots game plan?

To say nothing of the fact that Bill is the beast at adjusting IN GAME
so DAMIEN HARRIS impressive line in his debut
Almost all that production came in the 1st half
And he had ZERO targets in that game

PS Sony was breaking off some big plays for once in his life... Burkhead is there

Will anybody "have" that early down role/ RZ role?
But let’s for sake of argument gift HARRIS Sony’s role...
how valuable is that?

Sony has never played over 55% of the snaps in any game & he has less than 25 catches in his career

What people are chasing is the touchdown upside I guess

But that’s overrated…
SONY MICHEL has been among the league leaders in red zone & goal line volume since coming into the league

He’s also finished outside the top 30 RBs in PPR in each of those seasons

And is this the same role around the goal line?
Fuck no!
hands up if you know what the Pats will do at the goal line!

FB dive?
is James White in there…
Rex Burkhead?
*I mean Sexy Rexy leads the team in red zone carries
*Only Pat with multiple goal line touts!

40% chance Cam Newton scores it is the answer!
So hard to have a spiked TD season when there's a QB on the team who has OVER 40% of his teams rushing TDs since 2011!!🤯😲

Like I recognize how robust the RB position looks in NE on paper
Patriots RBs as a position
2017= 2nd most PPR pts
2018= 2nd most
2019= you guessed it! 2nd most

all 3 years the Patriots RBs combined for over 30 ppg & AGAIN this year... they are over 30 points per game as a RB position (PPR)

But look at the ranks… no Patriots RB to be found
it is just SOOO spread out for Patriots RBs
& if we are chasing anything it might be smarter to chase the targets

it is EASIER money to make for fantasy

And contrary to public opinion has a WAY higher ceiling
(Or at least has in New England)
Using James White historic outlier 2018 season...😂

White was the RB 7 in PPR that year on 181 touches
Sony was the Rb 35 in the same season on 216 touches!

but Since Sony came into the league he has FAR more touches than James White but FAR fewer pts in fantasy football...
James White is averaging over 15 ppg since Sony was drafted meanwhile Michel (The patriots early down hotness in the RB room) Is under 10 ppg in PPR

Despite high end volume
And elite red zone and goal line volume
+ little competition on early downs

Ummm Julian Edelman= TDs🔼📈
yawn fest passing game & elite OLine + Kamara

Brees has just 6 deep ball completions in 5 games
& Their team leaders in deep ball receptions have just 2 *Neither are WRs🤨

*Has 6 more CATCHES than any RB has TARGETS
Only top 12 RBs are within 50% of Kamara’s PPR point total right now

JARED COOK is the only TE with multiple 40+ yard catches this season

His efficiency in 2019 was rediculous!
*one of the best YPT of the past decade
*TD every 6.9 targets
*Almost 4 fantasy pts PER touch last yr
half of the NY duo who are the LOWEST scoring teams in football (16.3 ppg for the NYG)

They're reluctant to throw deep & bypass the red zone yet they can't NOT throw once they're in the RZ
*NYG passing 76% in opp. RZ (2nd highest)
*Jones= only QB w/ 2 RZ ints
DANIEL JONES (grab a 🍸 trust me)
Just 10 deep ball attempts in 2020 (2 per game)
He threw 54 last year!
*over 4/ game

Jones Deep ball attempt %
2019= 11.8%
2020= 5.5% -only above Brees🤯

Intended Air Yds/ game
2019= 284

Average depth of target
2019= 8.4
2020= 6.9
DANIEL JONES 0.29 ranks 34th in fantasy pts/ dropback😂😢😪

Only 2 QBs have over 160 attempts but under 1200 yds passing
Wentz= 196 att 1188 yds
Daniel Jones 111 att 1111 yds

Jones is 8th in attempts / 20th in yds/ 32nd in TD passes

kk TDs... I;d start drinking Giants fans
Rivers is the next lowest QB in TDs among QBs who’ve played every game for their team
*The old man has twice as many TDs as Jones

4 straight games with 10 or fewer fantasy pts

4 games in a row with ZERO TDs! (rush or pass)

*He threw a TD in every start as a rookie
He has a 23% target share & post Saquon injury he's gone UP while Tate's being dropped in leagues

He has 44.2% of the Giants air yards
*Top 10 in total air yards already
*So if they do get back to 2019 AY totals 📈📈
SLAYTON has scored as a WR 1 twice this year
*over 20 PPR pts both weeks
*but under 10 PPR pts the other 3 weeks

He went over 100 yds in both his spiked weeks
*as many 100 yard games as he had during his entire rookie season
DARIUS SLAYTON has really been the go-to guy
*the AY/ deep target monopoly has been established
*his chemistry/ rapport with Danny D is un-D-niable

but Slayton also has 12 red zone targets (T-4th / WR)
*High 10 zone ms%

& he's doin it!
*19/23 catches have gone for 1st down/TD
19% of the Giants targets are going to EE

Top 5 in targets among TEs but still hasn’t scored a rec TD
*He's the only TE with 15+ catches and no TD (18 rec)
*did get a rush TD in week 5 lol

Engram is avg about 6.5 tgt/ game
*under 30 yds rec/ game😪
12.5 PPR pts or less all 5 games (under 10 in 4 of 5)

The deep passing black hole/ Slayton monopoly has dicked EE big time
*4.5 Air Yards/ tgt is Pa-thetic!

2019= 6.1 AY/ tgt
2018= 5.3 AY/ tgt
2017= 8.5 AY/ tgt
2017= 4th best rookie TE season ever by a TE in ff
*A man who has crushed me in the fantasy days past
*A man whos durability I question
*A man who plays on an offense I pretend doesn't exist
*A man I admit I probably should have drafted more in BB

He's the only player in the NFL over 100 yds rec in every game
31% target share
Top 10 in YAC/ rec (7.9)

Led the team in targets & snaps in week 5
*Played 68/69 snaps

Double digit targets in back to back weeks...

But don't
On pace for 16 fewer trips to opponents red zones
tied for the fewest per game this year (2.4) with the Jets🤡 Who had 7 fewer than any other team last year

4th most team air yards per game (357)
but most turnovers/ most interceptions
6th in pass attempts
9th in yards
9 interceptions= 2 more than anyone

Wentz is on pace for career highs in rush attempts, yards

*his 3 rushing TDs in 5 games equals his career total from the previous 55 games for Wentz
RB 16 despite team struggles/ missing week 1

what is happening in the passing game tho lol
Just 11 rec & 97 rec yds! Lol

16% of the Eagles targets have gone to Miley Sandy
*23 targets
*Only RB with 5 targets and under a 50% catch rate!
Miles Sanders
48% catch rate is laughable
*Among the 15 RBs with 20+ targets... JD McKissic has the next lowest of the group at 68% catch rate

*4th among RBs in air yds (wheels we like right)
*But only 4 RBs have 10 targets and an Adot above 3… Sanders is NOT one of them
4th among RBs in Air Yards + Yards after the catch

& on the ground Sanders 3.5 YBC/ att is awesome
*Helps he is seeing stacked fronts 1.6% of the time (Lowest of any RB on next gen stats)

GREG WARD is the slot WR... whatever

18.8 AY/ tgt is 1st
Hightower, Jalen Reagor + DeSean Jackson all rediculously good looking Air Yards per target figures

Johnny H missed a ball going against Joe Haden probably could have had it for a deep TD reception in week 5

Hightower led the WRs in snaps (48/59 in wk 5)
TRAVIS FULGHAM sure had the Wentz's eye

TF scored as a top 5 WR in fantasy while becoming the first Eagle to have 10+ catches AND 150+ yards in a game since Jeremy Maclin in 2014

Played just 8 snaps on offense in week 5... mighta been his best game ever😂
3rd in targets (TE)
*hasn’t broke 14 PPR pts this season
*Under 11 pts in 4/5

Top 12 TE in PPR (low bar) just once this season

Not sure his 19% share of the team targets can get too much lower tho eh?

his 60% of the teams targets inside the 10 can;t get higher tho!
So IS Zach Ertz a catch & fall down TE? lol

Yep 1.7 Yards after the catch per reception currently😢

*In the last half decade
Ertz has ranked 27th or lower in YAC/ rec all 5 years
*among JUST tight ends!

last 2 games with no Goedert, D-Jax, Reagor, or Jeffery Has 5/ 15 yards

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Ty

Ty Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TnfFtyrell

18 Oct
*Scoring almost 30 ppg on offense
11.4 more ppg more than last season🤡(18.1)

They’ll score more points on offense in 10 games this year than all of 2019 on that pace

Converting 48.3% of 3rd downs (top 10)
Up a tad from 34.4% last season LMAO (27th)
Movin the ball in PIT
In 2019 they scored 14 TDs on 40 red zone trips
*Steelers had the fewest RZ TDs / 2nd fewest RZ trips

This year they’re on pace for 20 more red zone trips
*Twice as many RZ TDs

35% TD rate in the red zone in 2019 (DEAD LAST lol)
60% in 2020
The Runs game has experienced a 180
*Literally doing twice as good BEFORE contact in the run game this year
*2019= 1.4 YBC/ att (DEAD LAST)
*2020= 3.0 YBC/ att (top 10)

Steelers have 7 runs of 20+ yds as a team
*they had 9 all of 2019
*2 runs of 40+ already after just 1 last yr
Read 35 tweets
17 Oct
Thousands of stats/ need to knows heading into week 6🧵
*Some league wide stats
*By team/ By player stats (Scroll)
@MyFantasyLeague @TrueNorthFFB
RB points per game by team (PPR)
NO 40
GB 38.2
SF 37.4
CLE 34.3
CAR 32.7

BUF 18.1
CHI 16.8
NYG 16.5
HOU 15.3
NYJ 14.5🤡
Most RB rush yds by Team
CLE 837
MIN 733
LAR 586
LV 560
GB 559

RB receptions by Team
NO 47
CAR 40
SF/ LV 37

PIT 15
WR points per game by team (PPR)
DAL 57.2
BUF 56.2
PIT 51.5
SEA 50.6
ATL 46
JAX 45.9
ARI 43.3
CAR 42.1
KC 42
MIA 41.5

IND 25.6
BAL 25.2
SF 22.4

WR team target share %
BUF 72%
ARI 71.2%
NYJ 69.7%

TB 46.6%
SF 41.8%
LV 37.7%
Read 118 tweets
14 Oct
The New York Jets, their WOAT head coach & imperfect RB marriages🧵

Gase is the WOAT and I'll show it🤡🐐
The Jets have been an unwinnable RB environment
Lev Bell has been on both ends of a spectrum😕
Frank Gore is the guy.. & it's gross🤢
🧵@TrueNorthFFB @MyFantasyLeague
The Jets have pretty much been the worst offense in football since 2019

& it is Adam fn Gase🤡

outside of 3 seasons spent with Peyton Manning (When it was all Peyton) Gase has been an unmitigated disaster

I wrote this when he was hired by the Jets...
Gase has been dead last in play volume 2/4 seasons as a HC and has paired that with some of the worst yards PER play figures

win the turnover battle/ win in the trenches/ who pressures the QB more? who won on 3rd DOWN?
* Easy criteria for winning & losing football games
Read 25 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!