Thread by @syrpis

The stand-off between @BorisJohnson and @AndyBurnhamGM is developing into something very interesting. Thread. 1/9

Number 10's plan has some appeal. Given where we are with COVID, and the big variation in case numbers, it makes sense, in public health terms, to have a local response. 2/9

It also makes sense, this time in a political sense, to share, or to pass, responsibility for tighter restrictions on to local politicians (I think Michael Portillo made this point on Question Time). 3/9

But this strategy also has significant political dangers. Allowing local politicians to have responsibility means allowing them to have some decision-making power. This Government tends to be very hostile to sites of potential opposition... 4/9

... but it is also very hostile to imposing tighter COVID restrictions, so the impulse to pass the buck to others may have been too strong to ignore.

(On the Government's aversion to constraint and opposition, see: blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/02…) 5/9

It has allowed local politicians to use their 'newfound leverage to force the government to improve its economic response' (see this excellent piece by @cjayanetti) 6/9 theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

It is a high-stakes battle for both sides - and it exposes (once more) the many difficulties with the devolution settlement - and shows that they apply within England as well as between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. 7/9

In this instance, it seems that the Govt can, if it so chooses, impose Tier 3 restrictions on Greater Manchester absent the Mayor's support. But whether it will be possible to enforce them without local support is very much an open question. 8/9

It is very difficult to predict how this stand-off will develop. But, whatever the outcome, the authority of, and support for, the approach of the Govt in Westminster will be significantly damaged. Ends. 9/9