Thread by @sportingintel

In the week since @SamWallaceTel’s huge scoop revealing existence of ‘Project Big Picture’, I’ve been puzzling over the detail, not least the issue of EFL clubs getting 25% of PL revenues from 2022 onwards. It’s not what it seems.

A thread.

1/n

Small print of the financial forecast estimates £3.47bn of distributable annual revenue from 2022, including £1.83bn domestic broadcast income & £1.409bn overseas income. Domestic revs will be flat at about £1.66bn, or even down. So why £1.83bn?

2/n

Apparently that £1.83bn forecast includes the EFL’s TV money, which under the PBP will effectively come under the control of the PL. So that’s one oddity right there. The EFL will in future get 25% of something they currently own 100%. Erm.

3/n

One number really jumped out: the £1.409bn forecast foreign TV revs. Currently PL sells all 380 games to overseas broadcasters for £1.28bn (now Suning deal gone). Under PBP, those 380 will reduce to 162. Yes, DROP by 218 games, as PBP expects value RISE!

4/n

The no. of games for overseas broadcasters falls from 380 to 162 pr yr under PBP because an 18-team PL has only 306 games; and of those PBP want each of the 18 teams to be able to sell 8 games pr ssn (144 total) direct to fans overseas, & keep the cash.

5/n

So I wondered how much lower the value of the overseas deal would be than £1.4bn if ALL the best (biggest audience) 144 games were sold direct to fans. Answer: about £200m, not £1.4bn. In that case, the EFL’s 25% is looking smaller by the minute.

6/n

Having done a bit of digging, now believe it isn’t the case that the BPB foresaw the clubs selling the *best* games direct to fans, but perhaps more of the middling games, the sort currently picked for 3pm on Saturday in “normal” times. But still.

7/n

Logic dictates a package of 380 games a yr costing £1.28bn now doesn’t become pack of 162 games at £1.4bn. Should that £1.4bn be £1bn? Half a billion? We’ll see one day. Selling individual games remains key to big clubs’ agenda. Oodles of cash at stake.

8/n

If Liverpool or Man Utd could individually sell their home fixture of that match direct to overseas fans, what might they earn? According to analysis of real world global viewing data of recent years, at £5 per fan, as much as £125m. From a single game.

9/n

I’ve had access to various data sets at different points (game by game, nation by nation figures) and combined with info unearthed by several sportingintelligence.com research projects, can demonstrate global eyeballs for different PL game types.

10/n

The very biggest number of people around the world likely to pay to watch the biggest single PL game in any season (in audience terms combined, outside the UK, whether on TV or legal streams / apps) is about 25million.

11/n

And the ‘smallest’ games, aka the chaff, and there are typically around 150 “chaff” PL games each season, will each get fewer than 1m viewers in total around the world. The least watched game might get 38,000 people.

12/n

Typically but not all of 30 most-watched games in a season are the ‘Blockbuster’ Big 6 v Big 6 games. I then categorise another 96 “good” games featuring Big 6 v best of ‘Other 14’. Then “so-so” games are mostly O14 v O14; then chaff.

13/n

It might surprise many people that even the Blockbusters average only 12m viewers worldwide outside the UK. Anyway: here’s the lowdown on how each category fairs, and what clubs might earn selling these games at different price points.

14/n

Most EFL clubs haven’t even seen the PBP document or detail. They’ve just been assured the would be better off financially if it happened. Many will, if only because scrapping parachutes means £220m-£280m gets split between 72 clubs not 7 or 8.

15/n

But whether EFL clubs would really have been getting £750m a year from 2022 onwards, or 25% of forecast PL revenues, is, erm, debatable. A chunk of that is theirs already and another chunk will be smaller, perhaps much smaller.

16/n

Whoops. Didn't post the key table. HERE IT IS

I don’t think thePBP is wholly bad. It’s mostly pretty awful, obvs. But the debate it has sparked is absolutely necessary, and healthy. And raises awareness of issues that WILL keep coming back until they happen, like individual game sales by clubs.

17/n

The media and broadcasting landscapes are changing massively and rapidly and there might well be ways that *all* clubs can benefit, and earn bigger sums to share more evenly, across *all* football.

18/n

Finally, links for MoS that cover this, including some angry EFL chairman who want to know what the hell is going on (mailonsunday.co.uk/sport/football…); and a bit more on the possibilities of direct-to-fan matches by PL clubs (mailonsunday.co.uk/sport/football…)

19/n

THIS IS THE END.

Of the thread.

This table tells so many stories. Please go back to the start if you want to know what it all means.