Thread by @jucojames

Time for the good, the bad, & the ugly from yesterday's Celtic vs Rangers game. Non-penalty xG was 0.14 vs 1.26. To address one of the hot topics coming out of the game, next tweet shows other games with low number of shots on target since Deila's last season-only gladbach @ home

A reminder that event-based xG models are just one of many analytical tools. For example, Wyscout's assigned very low probability to Moi's chance. As has been the case this season generally, we lacked attacking output from midfield and the two "strikers."

Understanding why xG was low on Moi's shot is important- he struck the ball with his right foot- from that position and relative to McGregor and the last defender is probably not a shot that goes in...almost ever. Had he used his left foot the xG would likely have been higher.

First good goes to Welsh, who was thrown into an extremely difficult situation and did himself and the club proud, IMO. He won 5 of 6 defensive duels, 11 of 17 overall duels, 4 of 6 aerial duels, and had 11 interceptions. He did turn the ball over 12 times, but will address that

general issue in next section. The other good and my MOTM goes to Scott Brown. He won 7 of 9 defensive duels, 21 of 32 overall duels, 5 of 6 aerial, with 9 interceptions and 19 ball recoveries. He did turn over 10 times. For the job he was asked to do, probably close to the best

he could have produced.

Bad goes to the same structural issues I've been referencing for months. As good as Brown was, this screenshot is just one example of a structural problem. He intercepted a Barisic clearance with decent body positioning and space to create in a dangerous

area. A Rangers player is a few yards behind him to the inside and oncoming-could have been a big chance. Brown collected the ball, turned backwards and recycled possession, allowing Rangers to regain shape.

As the first graphic shows, Celtic having issues creating chances vs

Gerrard/Beale's Rangers is not new. I've taken a lot of heat and abuse for having the temerity to suggest they have been better managed/coached. I keep saying the same thing- as a one off yesterday was not a disaster, but underlying problems remain unaddressed.

Like after Ferencvaros, I am not going to slaughter individual players. When nearly every player turns the ball over at a high rate, I look at the system and coaching. Duffy is not a ball playing CB yet is being asked to do so- not his fault. He turned the ball over 17 times.

Laxalt was thrown in with teammates he hadn't played with and no common language- not his fault. He won just 8 of 28 duels and turned the ball over 23 times. As I feared, Celtic's growing reliance on Frimpong was addressed by a competent opponent. The disparity in management and

coaching quality was on full display for all to see. I take no satisfaction from making such a declaration. I think many more in our support are finally coming to grips with the extent of the issues.

Ugly goes to yet another vital decision point. The first was in prep for

CL qualification and building a European level side with a coherent plan. I argued this was vital to the season and the risks a failure could unleash were so high, with structural issues so fundamental and obvious, that Lennon's poor decisions + Ferencvaros warranted a change.

2nd point passed & many were then thrilled we kept our players when the window closed, while I grew concerned about the risks of forcing players who want to leave to stay, and play for a manager for whom they could possibly have developed a deaf ear and/or lost confidence in.

Yesterday was not a disaster and there still remains ample time to alter course. However, the league is now down to a virtual coin flip in various predictive models, which is where I expected them to head if no changes were made. My call to sack Lennon after Ferencvaros was

because I'd seen enough to be convinced he was unlikely to alter course. Now I fear a change may also be required to re-energize key players. But there is no silver bullet with how far this has progressed, IMO. Rangers aren't likely to go away and we need all hands on deck. End.