jucojames Profile picture
18 Oct, 15 tweets, 4 min read
Time for the good, the bad, & the ugly from yesterday's Celtic vs Rangers game. Non-penalty xG was 0.14 vs 1.26. To address one of the hot topics coming out of the game, next tweet shows other games with low number of shots on target since Deila's last season-only gladbach @ home
A reminder that event-based xG models are just one of many analytical tools. For example, Wyscout's assigned very low probability to Moi's chance. As has been the case this season generally, we lacked attacking output from midfield and the two "strikers."
Understanding why xG was low on Moi's shot is important- he struck the ball with his right foot- from that position and relative to McGregor and the last defender is probably not a shot that goes in...almost ever. Had he used his left foot the xG would likely have been higher.
First good goes to Welsh, who was thrown into an extremely difficult situation and did himself and the club proud, IMO. He won 5 of 6 defensive duels, 11 of 17 overall duels, 4 of 6 aerial duels, and had 11 interceptions. He did turn the ball over 12 times, but will address that
general issue in next section. The other good and my MOTM goes to Scott Brown. He won 7 of 9 defensive duels, 21 of 32 overall duels, 5 of 6 aerial, with 9 interceptions and 19 ball recoveries. He did turn over 10 times. For the job he was asked to do, probably close to the best
he could have produced.

Bad goes to the same structural issues I've been referencing for months. As good as Brown was, this screenshot is just one example of a structural problem. He intercepted a Barisic clearance with decent body positioning and space to create in a dangerous
area. A Rangers player is a few yards behind him to the inside and oncoming-could have been a big chance. Brown collected the ball, turned backwards and recycled possession, allowing Rangers to regain shape.

As the first graphic shows, Celtic having issues creating chances vs
Gerrard/Beale's Rangers is not new. I've taken a lot of heat and abuse for having the temerity to suggest they have been better managed/coached. I keep saying the same thing- as a one off yesterday was not a disaster, but underlying problems remain unaddressed.
Like after Ferencvaros, I am not going to slaughter individual players. When nearly every player turns the ball over at a high rate, I look at the system and coaching. Duffy is not a ball playing CB yet is being asked to do so- not his fault. He turned the ball over 17 times.
Laxalt was thrown in with teammates he hadn't played with and no common language- not his fault. He won just 8 of 28 duels and turned the ball over 23 times. As I feared, Celtic's growing reliance on Frimpong was addressed by a competent opponent. The disparity in management and
coaching quality was on full display for all to see. I take no satisfaction from making such a declaration. I think many more in our support are finally coming to grips with the extent of the issues.

Ugly goes to yet another vital decision point. The first was in prep for
CL qualification and building a European level side with a coherent plan. I argued this was vital to the season and the risks a failure could unleash were so high, with structural issues so fundamental and obvious, that Lennon's poor decisions + Ferencvaros warranted a change.
2nd point passed & many were then thrilled we kept our players when the window closed, while I grew concerned about the risks of forcing players who want to leave to stay, and play for a manager for whom they could possibly have developed a deaf ear and/or lost confidence in.
Yesterday was not a disaster and there still remains ample time to alter course. However, the league is now down to a virtual coin flip in various predictive models, which is where I expected them to head if no changes were made. My call to sack Lennon after Ferencvaros was
because I'd seen enough to be convinced he was unlikely to alter course. Now I fear a change may also be required to re-energize key players. But there is no silver bullet with how far this has progressed, IMO. Rangers aren't likely to go away and we need all hands on deck. End.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with jucojames

jucojames Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @jucojames

16 Oct
Performance benchmarking in advance of tomorrow's big game: first some ranking models. 538's SPI currently has Celtic at 52 and Rangers at 99, which places them just behind Sporting and Braga for some context. The Elo system I monitor has Celtic at 37 and Rangers up to 51.
The derby games the past two seasons have been very tight both with regards to goals and underlying performance metrics. Back to Wyscout data today to go back to 16/17 season, and we can see the shift in relative derby performances pre and post Gerrard/Beale arrival. Image
The relative wage budget went from about 15% in 16/17 of Celtic to over 70%, which has assuredly been a huge factor. Notable development in last 3 derbies was the extreme lopsidedness of Celtic's attack in 4-2-3-1 in the three games. That had not been an issue under Rodgers. Image
Read 4 tweets
1 Sep
Warning- this is a nerdy thread on long range shots and why I worry about Celtic's shooting. I hear repeatedly that Christie is a good shooter so I thought I would examine his record from shots outside the box and the penalty arc. I reviewed 17-18 at Aberdeen & 18-19/19-20.
Christie had 274 non-penalty shots over that time with 147 outside the area. He had about 56% of his shots outside the area under McInnes and last season under Lennon, while 48% in the hybrid season under Rodgers/Lennon in 18-19. He scored 8 goals on aggregate of 4.62 xG...
on those 147 shots for avg xG per shot of about 0.03. One way to interpret that is that Christie is a "good shooter" because he has outperformed his xG. Of the 147 shots, 20% were on target, 43% were wide, 32% blocked, and 5% scored.
Read 8 tweets
27 Aug
Time for the good, the bad, and the ugly from yesterday's Celtic vs Ferencvaros game. Wyscout had the game at 1.72-0.31 xG with 25 vs 7 shots, 8 vs 3 on target, and pretty much 70-30% possession. I would say that the main good is that despite Lennon's post-game comments, players
appear to have played hard overall. I think players generally seemed to try to make the best of flawed selection and tactics. I am not going to slaughter players who are not good enough at no fault of their own, or playing out of position for the umpteenth time.
Lots of bad, so I will just highlight a couple and they will be familiar. Been harping on midfield structure, lack of creativity, and transitions being problems, with stepping up to better quality opponents likely to exacerbate. Here is typical picture of midfield issue.
Read 8 tweets
27 Aug
I will summarize the stats later today but want to address the Celtic "macro" first, as it is far more important than yesterday's game, CL, or even 10iar. The long term state of the club is now very fragile, as the risks I have been describing are now being unleashed.
This is a huge problem. As I stated on @celticrumours risks grow over time and then are typically realized fast. The last decade resulted in massive risks building due to the march to 10iar in a league that had no viable competition for most of that time.
The club has been hallowed out and doubling/tripling down on bad ideas has created a spiraling effect. Rodgers was given dictatorial powers, and while a tremendous coach, he was/is a terrible recruiter and of questionable character- not ideal type to give absolute power.
Read 20 tweets
23 Aug
Time for the good, the bad, and the ugly from yesterday's Celtic vs Dundee Utd game. I'll start with the fact the game was no where near the Kilmarnock performance and within the context of a 38 game season, would characterize it as "fine".
Initial report was xG 2.74-0.28. Two performances standout as good with caveats. The most impactful player in the game was Christie, and the overwhelming nature of his impact was good. He won 17 of 31 duels & 0.47 xG. The caveat, which I am sure most are already aware- shooting.
He took 9 shots, which was triple his 19-20 league avg, and 6 were from beyond the 18, including the terrible free kick attempt. The aggregate xG on those 6 shots was 0.14. His 3 shots inside the box were total of 0.33. Several of his long range shots he took despite advanced...
Read 18 tweets
14 Aug
This morning's "fun" is looking at whether Celtic's opponents respect our "authoritah" enough. Passes Per Defensive Action (PPDA) is supposed to be a statistical proxy for a team's pressing intensity. Conversely, PPDA Against is to measure how intense opponents press.
The first graphic shows Celtic vs various clubs in domestic league games only for 2019-2020. I've selected the clubs based upon those with large financial advantages over their leagues and those that are dominant statistically. We can see where Celtic stackup as a "dominant" club Image
Given the extreme slide in quality in SPFL after Celtic and Rangers, the 14.38 PPDA against suggests that many of our SPFL opponents don't respect our authoritah enough. We have not been punishing the press enough to cause opponents to back off. The average of 3 derbies?
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!