Thread by @BlueSteelDC

Lazy politics I need you to put away

1. Momentum
This is the primary- but as partisan as Americans are - what a bunch of strangers in another state votes-does nothing to impact their vote. Knowing this the concept of momentum is bunk.

This is something even politicos argue

And they always point to Senator Barack Obama as the one clear example.

But is it?

The black vote was the only shift. And it was a circumstance you cannot replicate on normal circumstances.

If you look at the history of primaries- winning a previous primary doesn't set you up for the other primary. Senator Clinton was still winning primaries in late May. If Momentum was real that should not happen.

Demographics play a role here

At that point Demographic appeal was baked in. States that had Clinton's favored Demo meants she won that states and Senator Obama won the states he seemed to appeal

This factor has played out more consistently than momentum.

It is why Bill Clinton, Joe Biden was nominated.

Excitement-

This is the idea that there is a universal formula that appeals to all, most, of even a large swath- so the person who speaks to it will be lifted to wins.

Do I need to remind everyone Bernie lost twice.

We as a Nation can't agree on basic things,

Happy Holidays V Merry Xmas
Wearing a Mask

So the premise that there was something that had wide mass appeal that just happened to be as super liberal as you - should have come across as phony as a Rolex sold on the subway

Not everyone is the same:

What excites this one- being submissive to her husband
Yurtle is excited by taking away your health care
And we are not going to go there on what excites Lindsey Graham

We are different people.

Frequent voting is about access and understanding civic duty.

let us not forget that the most disciplined voter(who never misses an election) - does not equate voting w/ excitement but a fulfillment of their civic duty.

Treating it as a conditional relationship - has led to conditional results.

Expanding voting -is usually about access -not excitement.
This is true in Europe where we have data. The more easier we made voting the higher the turnouts.

We have low turnouts even with very liberal candidates and high turnouts with non-liberal candidates candidates

The Youth Vote.

There is a lot of stupid punditry on this one.
Foremost the youth vote leans Democratic because it has a larger percentage of POC in Y and Z generation.

White younger ppl split pretty evenly ongoing Conservative or Liberal

pewresearch.org/topics/voter-d…

White Young voters are:

Get this- evenly split among being Republican and Democrat

But they are more likely to occupy the far extremes of political ideology. Whereas POC in this age group are more situational

There were large assumptions of what would appeal to this larger group based on the very small fragment of

very liberal white voters speaking for the entire group which is just a subset.

This group has far more ideological diversity than older groups

With the amount of data we have about the historical record and about current demographics- why are we still saying LAZY SH*T