Thread by @Ksidiii

Thread: Alright, let’s dive into a little real world application of how trading skills and gambling skills go hand in hand.

Throughout the years a big focus of mine has been centered on finding betting lines that offer the highest amount of “variability”. As a practitioner of BJJ and Boxing I have noticed a large amount of disparity in the lines and how the general public perceives a “favorite”.

In the fight game you often have a large amount of underdogs that offer a positive EV due to the fact that the public doesn’t really understand the sport the same way an actual practitioner does. Matchup advantages are big especially when the entire event can change on one punch.

The anatomy of the sport is nothing like baseball, basketball, football etc. Plus the public will jump on a favorite and you will have lines that are massively one sided in a sport that offers the highest variability of result down to the final second.

With that being said, I am always seeking for non linear payouts with small amounts of risk. Here was my bet last night.

Parlay
1: Lopez +330
2: Ortega +165
3: Buccaneers -105

20:1 payout ✅

So as anticipated,

Lopez ✅
Ortega ✅
Buccaneers ???

I have now hit on two big underdogs and I am awaiting the final leg of the parlay.

Here’s where “risk management” comes into play.

Sure I can wait for the Buccaneers to play and await my destiny. Bust or home run.

However,as any good trader would do,it’s time to lock in that highly convex trade and pay myself for being on the right side.While still having skin in the game

I immediately bet 30% of my anticipated winnings on the packers.

Packers win I make 5:1
Buccaneers win I make 14:1

When trading Vol on the long side this is how you need to think about things.

1)What path offers the highest. potential for variability
2)What value am I getting for it.
3) Risk management!!!! / monetizing gains when they come your way.

Don’t end up being the sucker that lets his 5delta contracts expire worthless after having them trade Delta1 as a huge winner.

Profits in tiers should always be the Motto.

Hopefully you guys got something out of that.