I've noticed there's a lot of public interest in what I make of Catherine Belton's Putin's People. Fine. Let me give another example of problematic sourcing, and I will use this as an opportunity to address broader issues about how we deal with authenticity of sources.
Belton's book begins with a remarkable conversation between "Putin's banker" and exiled oligarch Sergei Pugachev and the well-known Yeltsin associate Valentin Yumashev. The two discuss how Putin came to power and their role in his rise.
Some really revealing stuff in here, see e.g.
Note how Pugachev says that Putin openly encourages corruption (would not be surprised!).
And at this point you even begin to wonder whether these were video - not audio - recordings. Otherwise, how would Belton know that Yumashev was "shaking his head sadly."
Of course, if you read something like this, and you are a critical reader, you immediately want to know about the source, including whether the transcripts are genuine, whether they have been edited. Was Belton able to verify that the voices are those of Pugachev & Yumashev etc.
So you turn to the book. Here's where Belton talks about these tapes. That's it. But lots to unpack here. First of all, check out the hideous FSB plot to tape Pugachev's every meeting that he held in his office since the 1990s (presumably a lot!).
The question that immediately comes to mind is why, if FSB were taping these meetings, they were found on his hard disk. OK, I am sure there's an explanation for this (for example, they could have secretly enabled a mic on his computer to record to the local hard disk).Plausible?
If so, surely the FSB were glad when the detectives in London were able to recover the hard disks for them (or is it tapes - since Belton also talks about "tapes"). But as a critical reader, I want to know more. I understand there are sensitivities and yet...
I want to know, for example, how Belton got a hold of these tapes. Were these audio files, or transcribed documents. When did the meeting take place? Were there other tapes ("every meeting since 1990s?"). Could she be sure that the tapes had not been tampered with etc.
Because the tape plays such a central role in the book - as a "clickbait" really - you expect some discussion in the footnotes. I am reminded here of Andrew Nathan's introduction to the Tiananmen Papers (which were also compiled by unknown persons). amazon.com/Tiananmen-Pape…
Here's how Nathan recounts how he came into the possession of high-level documents (whose authenticity was disputed then and is still disputed by some). He spends pages on describing how he finally decided to go with the project despite feeling that some docs were tampered with.
You would not expect quite as much in this case but at least you'd expect a footnote. What do we have? Nothing. Not a single footnote, explaining what this crucial tape is, whether the author tried to verify its contents (given that she interviewed both Pugachev & Yumashev), etc.
We, as readers, are left to wonder whether Belton has had this tape from a reliable source, or whether perhaps she was fed disinformation, perhaps by Pugachev himself (since Pugachev clearly comes across in a positive light in the tape). These are serious issues.
Now, some readers might say: you are too picky. These are sensitive sources, of course Belton could not disclose them. Or: "I trust Belton because she is a first-rate Financial Times journalist" etc. All fair points.
But if you are a historian, you want to be able to assess the veracity of sources, or at least be permitted a fair judgment as to whether to believe a story or a spin. Belton denies us this judgment, which is what I find problematic.
I understand she is an investigate journalist. But I am a historian and I have my own (professional) views on how to evaluate evidence. As I have shown in previous tweets, this is far from being the only "problematic" footnote (or absence thereof).
Don't get upset with my analysis. I am not imposing my views. My role as a trained social scientist is to uphold certain standards of research, which is why I find it important to draw people's attention to problematic methodologies and stimulate a polite exchange of opinions.
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Check out the juicy evidence, too. "But where there is one conspiracy, another, greater one is always lurking—like the credits and intertitles of this moviefilm, which flash for a moment in Russian Cyrillic (not Kazakh), only to be obscured by English."
Not entirely true by the way since the credits are partially in actual Kazakh. But so what. "Borat" also speaks Hebrew and Polish in the film - is this a pointer to an Israeli-Polish conspiracy to undermine the US?
Reading here Brezhnev's speeches at internal party conferences. On one occasion (in 1973) he went into great detail about how the Soviets were lagging behind the West in high-tech exports, and were just not competitive on the international market.
Here he is complaining how the Netherlands is ahead of the USSR in foreign trade.
Later he talks about how the Soviets are falling behind in acquiring foreign licenses (compared to countries like Japan):
Some people have criticised my negative assessment of Catherine Belton's engagement with her sources, suggesting that I selectively pointed to one or two dubious sources. I am receptive to this criticism; therefore, I am running another thread (the last one, I promise).
This thread is about Belton's claim that the KGB siphoned off billions of dollars from the Soviet economy in the final days/months of the Soviet regimes. Where do we find this claim? Right here.
Well I don't normally respond to tweets from people I don't know but this thread allows me to highlight some further problematic sourcing in Belton's book. You can see that here Belton argues that certain "progressive members" of the KGB working at IMEMO had pushed for reforms.
You begin to wonder here who Belton is specifically referring to. The Institute of World Economy (IMEMO) was generally known for "liberal" proclivities, and this had little to do with the KGB or the GRU.
The Institute's director Nikolai Inozemtsev was attacked by the Party hardliners for "revisionism," and had to leverage his ties with Brezhnev to protect himself and his institute. You begin to wonder whether Belton had read anything on IMEMO history.
So I promised a thread on Belton's Putin's people, and why I think it's untenable as "history" (as fiction - yes, it's well-written). There are so many problems with the book that I don't even know where to begin, so instead of having a thousand examples, I will just mention two.
Both have to do with methodology. How do we - historians - establish that something is a fact? We find evidence. We weigh this evidence against other evidence to see how convincing it is. We provide references in order to convince fellow historians of the veracity of our takes.
Belton fails to do this. Her early chapters detail the collapse of the USSR, in which she claims that perestroika, begun under Andropov, was basically a "KGB" project (because, you see, KGB operatives served abroad and they knew that life was better there).
Check out this remarkable conversation between Madeleine Albright and Primakov. This is not too long after Primakov became Prime Minister. After the events of August 1998, Russia was in dire economic straits, and Primakov badly needed to have debts re-scheduled.
Here's he is talking about the basis of the Russian economy ("theft") and lashes out against certain unnamed people who brought Russia to this point. He added that he was fighting corruption and that anything "happened to his family," he "would physically destroy those involved."
Complaining about the US obstruction of IMF loans, Primakov asks Albright whether perhaps the US was counting in his government to fail so that Gaidar and Chubais return. Says this will never happen. Adds that he's trying to steer a narrow path between chaos and dictatorship.