Thread by @PalmerReport

The dumbest take of this election cycle is "Hillary was winning but she lost, therefore the polls were wrong, so they're wrong again in 2020."

Hillary WAS winning. Then Comey upended the election.

Could Trump win? Yes. But he's not currently winning. Be vigilant, not clueless.

If you want to get to the finish line, you have to start by understanding where you're currently at. There's no way the polls are off by more than 2-3 points (the final polling averages were off by 2 points in 2016). Biden is up 10 in the polls, which means he's up by at least 7.

Will Biden's lead remain that high? That depends on two things. One is whether a last minute surprise will have an impact. Comey's letter cost Hillary 4 points, making it a close race and causing the electoral college to go the other way. But you can't control that.

The factor you CAN control is turnout. You shouldn't be comfortable with any lead, because being in the lead doesn't mean anything unless people actually vote. Circle back to the Biden leaners in your online life and personal life, and make sure they actually vote.

But let go of this "uh oh, what if the polls are wrong by double digits and Trump is secretly ahead" nonsense. That's not real. Nor is the notion that Trump and his minions can simply cheat to overcome a large lead. Nothing works that way. Let go of this silliness. Just turn out.