Thread by @StephenPunwasi

"Slashed in the face, beaten with a beer bottle, cuts up and down his arms, and cigarette burns."

No need to investigate, this was "heart failure."

Here's a quick thread on how a pathologist helped shape how I view investment data.

<thread> 🧵👇

2/ A while ago I made friends with a pathologist in a coroner's office, and he sent me down an interesting hole.

See, death statistics are reported differently in every country. Obviously.

However, I didn't understand how big an impact this has on data.

3/ He explained some countries lump it in with municipal funding. That means autopsy budgets compete with snow removal budgets. Underfunding can increase mistakes in cause of deaths.

Some countries allow the funeral home to determine death. Problematic for complicated deaths.

4/ Then some countries let the police determine the cause of death. This... is problematic, as you might assume.

One of those countries is Japan – perceived to be the safest country in the world.

Now let's circle back to my first tweet.

5/ That person beaten and cut to death was Takashi Saito, a 17 year old sumo wrestler in Japan that died of "natural causes."

It might have been corruption of 🇯🇵 police, but there's a more broad issue. 🇯🇵 police are encouraged to report deaths without a lead as natural.

6/ This explains part of the reason Japan has such a low homicide rate. Without a lead, people are often assumed to have killed themself. Even if they were shot in the back.

It also partially explains why Japan has such a notoriously high suicide rate. Neither are real numbers.

7/ How do Japanese people feel about this? Academics and some experts have long known. The average person? As happy as a clam.

The average person isn’t interested in how sausages are made, they just want to pick them up at the grocery store.

8/ Perception is more important than results.

🇨🇦 is another great example.

What’s it called when a First Nation’s community gets its building burnt down? A “disturbance.”

9/ This week, Canadians are outraged.

Next week, they'll have forgotten.

Next year, statistically a hate crime never occurred occur.

The rate of hate crimes stays low, because it only occurs if the person entering the data says it does.

10/ Now, how does this apply to investments?

In a lot of ways. First of all, cross country comparisons of data are often incorrect, due to inconsistency in collection standards.

This means a country may just look better, because they’re really bad at collecting data.

11/ More important, you bet on when perception is about to change, not reality.

Things can stink, but people can make lots of money on a stinker. You can’t convince them it’s wrong.

Whatever changes their mind, causes a tidal wave. They’re never prepared when reality hits.