Thread by @BonicMichael

@henriferon In stepping back for a sec I see a totally different approach:
1) Trump and Kim sign a Glass Half Full deal accepting a nuclear DPRK

https://twitter.com/BonicMichael/status/1294535754597773314?s=20

2) Peace Treaty is ratified w/ 2/3 GOP senate (next year presuming Trump wins)
3) Limited nuclear de-escalation of the KP

@henriferon 2/is discussed.

It's obvious that when people like Markus Garlauskas & others echo the Cold War sentiment that "a nuclear DPRK is unacceptable", they've become ostriches denying reality and gluttons for punishment. DC will bang its head against the wall pushing CVID/FFVD until

@henriferon 3/conflict breaks out [DC, paranoid of DPRK's growing nuclear capability, decides on a military first strike, igniting what could become Korean War 2.0 (The Nuclear Sequel) costing, oh...10 million lives or so] or the Moon hits Earth, whichever happens first. From a problem-

@henriferon 4/solving perspective this is DUMB (to exponent 10). It solves nothing. Problem-solving is difficult. But diplomacy isn't rocket science. Sometimes you have to compromise and this is the unfortunate reality DC must confront. So if above 👆Glass Half Full deal were done, DC will

@henriferon 5/put a limit - or Maximum - on the "North Korean Nuclear Development Curve". Why is this important? If Kim Jong-un were to sign the Glass Half Full deal, it means that DPRK values permanently capping/limiting its nuclear/ICBM/SLBM
@realDonaldTrump
@POTUS
@FLOTUS
@WhiteHouse

@henriferon @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @FLOTUS @WhiteHouse 6/capabilities in return for the benefits outlined in the deal - which will be:
1) An understanding that said deal is a stepping stone to a US Congress-ratified Peace Treaty that ends the Korean War
2) All sanctions will be lifted
3) US and DPRK will have normalized relations

@henriferon @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @FLOTUS @WhiteHouse 7/Logic dictates that DPRK's nuclear weapons are its ONLY sure security guarantee, and that the only thing close to its equivalence is the actual Peace Treaty (ratified by 2/3 Congress). If the US and North Korea establish friendly relations and economic partnerships we know that

@henriferon @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @FLOTUS @WhiteHouse 8/the War will be forever relegated to the historical past. And if we become friends - like US-Japan - the world sleeps better knowing all the "hostility", fear and insecurity over the past 70 years will become water under the bridge once peacetime prevails on the KP.

@henriferon @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @FLOTUS @WhiteHouse 9/We at the "crux move" in US-DPRK diplomacy. Pyongyang has made its position clear through Kim Yo-jong's concise and eloquent July 10, 2020 press statement:

@henriferon @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @FLOTUS @WhiteHouse 10/This is no time for Washington diplomats & strategists to go soft in the head. Kim Yo-jong has definitively stated DPRK's position. They have no intention of posing a threat to the US & allies. Kim Jong-un made clear at the 75th Anniversary Founding of the WPK speech that

@henriferon @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @FLOTUS @WhiteHouse 11/DPRK's nukes are for self-defensive/protection and deterrence purposes. They are the proverbial "shrimp among whales" and cannot hang their nuclear strategy on the fickle nature of the US Presidency, whose Administrations flip-flop periodically. They are using textbook nuclear

@henriferon @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @FLOTUS @WhiteHouse 12/deterrence. The world knows this. Washington knows this. So when DC's official position is: "But we don't wan't North Korea to have ANY nuclear weapons", it shows utter failure at the head in Washington DC. Such irrationality is dangerous, un-objective and could lead to War.

@henriferon @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @FLOTUS @WhiteHouse 13/Why is the Maximum Limit👇🏿in this graph important? By DPRK signing this deal they're in it for the benefits. They are fine with the Maximum Limit because their thinking is: "If we finally make peace with the US, we don't need to further develop the

@henriferon @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @FLOTUS @WhiteHouse 14/nuclear, ICBM or SLBM programs. We can trust the US, but only b/c these are the conditions that President Trump agrees to." This deal would transform the Singapore Summit into the de facto springboard that, 3 years later, helped bring about this Glass Half Full deal.

@henriferon @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @FLOTUS @WhiteHouse 15/There'll be a point above the Maximum Limit that DC would call a threshold, beyond which US would have to "change its calculus", perceiving a 3/4-Full Glass an "unacceptable risk". Now is the time to etch this Maximum Limit into writing BEFORE that threshold is reached.

@henriferon @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @FLOTUS @WhiteHouse 16/This deal is a form of the "Double Freeze" that China & Russia have long advocated for, having the core elements and more. This will be a game-changer b/c trust will begin to be established ,relations b/t Pyongyang and Washington will warm up and the future will start looking

@henriferon @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @FLOTUS @WhiteHouse 17/brighter. The time from just after the Singapore summit to this deal will be looked at as: "One step back, 10 steps forward". US-DPRK relations will be in the limelight before the international community as a new future for the Korean Peninsula begins to take shape. In this

@henriferon @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @FLOTUS @WhiteHouse 18/diplomatic environment there should then be conversations in US Congress about finally ending the Korean War w/ a 2/3 majority vote. The Glass Half-Full deal will cut the entirety of the progress from signing the Armistice to signing a Peace Treaty by half. In a post-Glass

@henriferon @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @FLOTUS @WhiteHouse 19/Half-Full climate the "finish line" will look so much closer. Even if there's no signing of a Peace Treaty for years (not decades, just years), we - and the world - have a new baseline from which all subsequent US-DPRK relations proceed. Trust will grow as time passes and the

@henriferon @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @FLOTUS @WhiteHouse 20/Maximum Limit is preserved. Sanctions can begin to lift, liaison offices opened, inter-Korean projects green-lighted - so many benefits following this deal. At the right time the Peace Treaty can be signed.

So this deal that accepts a nuclear DPRK and enforces a Maximum Limit

@henriferon @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @FLOTUS @WhiteHouse 21/chronologically precedes the Peace Treaty. And a reopening of the original discussion of the "complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula" can resume, but only after AFTER a Peace Treaty is signed.

In conclusion, this is a new vision/angle of "getting to the Promised

@henriferon @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @FLOTUS @WhiteHouse 22/Land" (of stability, peace & security in peacetime on a post-War KP). The chronological order of this approach's stages are so outside-the-box NO ONE has contemplated them. But I've written them out for all to check out, analyze, consider and share:

@henriferon @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @FLOTUS @WhiteHouse 23/
I) Trump & Kim Jong-un sign a Glass Half-Full Nuclear Limit deal
II) Later Peace Treaty ending the Korean War is signed
III) Talks of resuming "complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula" resume. (Which might lead to only 20% reduction, but 1/5 is better than 0 right?)

@henriferon @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @FLOTUS @WhiteHouse @threadreaderapp compile