Much has been said about the success of @broadinstitute's genomics lab, which provides testing for 108 colleges in the Northeast. When we use @nytimes data to compare 88 of the 108 schools vs. 1400+ in the country, we see significantly lower case counts in schools that use Broad.
The map above displays Covid-19 cases per 1,000 students (to account for population differences) at 88 of the 108 schools that have contracted Broad for testing (all that are on this list). Many schools' case counts have been in the single digits. broadinstitute.org/news/broad-ins…
The results are wildly impressive — colleges that have contracted Broad for testing have an average of 4 cases per 1,000 students, compared to an average of 14.1 cases per 1,000 students of the other 1300+ schools in the @nytimes dataset. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Are there other factors that contribute to these schools' successes? Of course — many are in rural areas in the Northeast with low community transmission and have high levels of compliance with health precautions. In the coming weeks I'll be examining these confounding variables.
It's also worth noting that there are many other testing providers colleges across the country use — Broad is just a significant example as they conduct about 7% of the nation's total Covid-19 tests each day. Other colleges have in-house labs/facilities, which are beneficial.
And here's an excellent piece from @melissakorn on Broad's successes in conducting high frequency testing at Northeast colleges. wsj.com/articles/how-a…
In addition to testing, there's the issue of logistics. Broad's facility in Boston, with a network of couriers, allows colleges to drive tests/have them driven for same-day delivery. Tests are with an average 14-hour turnaround time. Here's a map of the 88 of the schools.
Testing is obviously only one piece of the puzzle, but a huge one. Now let's go back to this map. Imagine a hub-and-spoke model for colleges around the country — essentially having multiple Broad-type labs — where colleges can easily send tests on a regular basis.
As colleges look towards planning for the spring, we must continue to emphasize the importance of testing as a key to success. I hope this short thread shows the benefits of conducting frequent testing with a robust logistical operation. Thanks @broadinstitute for their work!
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Over the past few days, @ashishkjha has spoken to the successes of California at ramping up testing and controlling a summer surge in cases. When we compare California's success to a state undergoing a surge (Wisconsin), we see the secret lies in testing. (thread)
Normalized for population, Wisconsin's current surge is much more serious than California's at the end of the summer. California was able to buck the trend with micro-targeting (on a county level) and a phased reopening, as well as an influx in testing.
The results are quite impressive. This graph shows the new tests (blue) and new cases (yellow) in each state. In response to a surge in June, California was quick to ramp up testing. In contrast, Wisconsin's daily tests actually decreased in August, leading to a September surge.
#TheInsiders: A Warning from Former Trump Officials — a CNN special — starts now. Looking forward to hearing from @OliviaTroye and @RickABright on pandemic response.
"I think it’s beyond worry," @RickABright says. "I know that his actions and his words and the things he is doing now are extending the duration and the magnitude of this pandemic."
"I saw Dr. Fauci brief repeatedly," @OliviaTroye says. "I saw people in the room during the meetings — people, senior White House officials — look away and roll their eyes."
Updated this week's College Watchlist with latest case counts. Currently tracking 104,746 total cases at 92 colleges. Number of colleges in each threshold group (vs. last week):
At the top of the list for cases in the last 7 days:
- Clemson University - 260
- University of Florida - 219
- University of Central Florida - 218
- Miami University-Oxford - 204
- Brigham Young University - 156
⅗ were in the top 5 last week.
While according to official school data, cases are slowing down compared to the beginning of the semester, I am concerned about cases and spread undetected as some students may not be tested through the college. My College Towns dashboard aims to fix this. public.tableau.com/views/Covid-19…
On October 13, Tucker Carlson said on his show, "According to a recent CDC report, "almost everyone — 85% — who got the coronavirus in July was wearing a mask, and they were infected anyway. So clearly (wearing a mask) doesn’t work the way they tell us it works."
This is false.
The report he was referring to was this September 11 MMWR report from the CDC which analyzes symptomatic individuals in two groups: one who tested positive and one who tested negative.
Showing the feedback loop between Fox News and President Trump, Trump said yesterday at a campaign rally in North Carolina: "Did you see, the CDC, that 85% of the people wearing the masks catch it, OK?"
Here's the thing: this is not what the report said.
Today is October 1. At the end of July, @PeterHotez wrote a national plan detailing the steps we as a nation must take to safely reopen our schools, colleges, and businesses, and even have football back safely. Have we met these goals? A thread: journals.elsevier.com/microbes-and-i…
Let's take a national look first. From the end of July (when the report was written) to the end of September (now), daily cases are down 35%, hospitalizations down 49% and deaths down 29%. One would be quick to declare victory, but this is not the complete picture.
When we look at this week's numbers compared to the beginning of September, we see an 8% increase in cases, 11% decrease in hospitalizations and 12% decrease in deaths. The U.S. is potentially on the verge of a spike as we move into the fall and we must be aware of this.
New: The CDC has updated its testing guidance for colleges and universities. Previously only recommending testing for symptomatic individuals and contacts (and not recommending entry testing), the agency has posted more comprehensive guidelines. Thread: cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
In the June 30 guidance, the CDC "does not recommend entry testing of all returning students, faculty, and staff." Experts like @CT_Bergstrom have critiqued this decision, calling it "inexplicable and irresponsible." chronicle.com/article/the-cd…