- Hospitalizations bottomed 4 weeks ago and then increased tangibly 2 weeks ago. That new increase trend already started abating the past 4 days
- Reported Deaths down 83 Week-over-Week (WoW)
/1
Graph 2: COVID ICU Census vs. Deaths (7DayAvg) vs. Daily Detected Cases
***Case hunting now in mega-hyperdrive and some states now include antigen positives (not antibody)
- 7-Day-Avg Reported Deaths down 15 WoW
- ICUs sizable jump last 2 weeks but peaking again already
/2
Graph 3: Daily Tests + Detected Cases + Case Positivity
***Last 10+ days have seen a real increase in Pos% that coincides with a bump in national CLI
- Test Positivity up 1.0 from trough
- Daily Test avg above 1M for 26 days
- Increase rate much lower than June surge
/3
Graph 4: Coronavirus - Census for Hospitalizations vs. ICUs vs. Ventilators
***All metrics bottomed out early October and then started rising tangibly but already slowing
- Hosps up 7,800 from trough
- ICUs up 1,300 from trough
- Vents up 280 from trough but 220 below July
/4
Graphs 5: Daily Estimated Cases vs. Deaths
This chart does a better job of showing recent case increases in the context of test quantity. Notice orange (detected cases) almost matches the July peak, but blue (Estimated Cases based on 1.2M tests) is much lower.
/5
With national CLI increasing slightly from national low, the increase in cases and subsequent increase in Hosps/ICUs/Vents look real.
However, the magnitude of this increases appears much lower than March/June and may already be peaking.
Deaths likely to follow ICU trend.
/END
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- Hospitalizations turned back down but still slightly up Week-over-Week (WoW)
- Hosps < 1/2 of peak
- Reported Deaths DOWN 57 WoW.
*Still a LOT of legacy death laundering (very old deaths counted as new)
/1
Graph 2: COVID ICU Census vs. Deaths (7DayAvg) vs. Daily Detected Cases
***Case hunting is in hyperdrive
- 7-Day-Avg Reported Deaths down 67 WoW
- ICUs still dropping
- Cases from mass/forced college testing + case definition changes still driving artificial increase?
/2
Graph 3: Daily Tests + Detected Cases + Case Positivity
***Why are so many being tested daily, and who are they? CLI is at a national record low
- Test Positivity down 0.3%
- Tests up 26k WoW
- Detected Cases up 8,000 WoW (big jump relative to test increase)
- Hospitalizations have the first Week-over-Week (Wow) rise since late July
- Reported Deaths DOWN 162 WoW. Still a LOT of legacy death laundering (very old deaths counted as new)
/1
Graph 2: COVID ICU Census vs. Deaths (7DayAvg) vs. Daily Detected Cases
***Still seeing large backlog dumps of old deaths
- 7-Day-Avg Reported Deaths down 75 WoW
- ICUs keep dropping
- "Cases" from mass/forced college testing + case definition changes = artificial increase
/2
Graph 3: Daily Tests + Detected Cases + Case Positivity
***Still don't see how so many tests are being done daily. Who are the people getting tested and why?
- Test Positivity down 0.5%
- Tests up 110k WoW
- Detected Cases up 214 WoW (0.2% Positivity)
Graph 2: COVID ICU Census vs. Deaths (7DayAvg) vs. Daily Detected Cases
***Large dumps of backlogged deaths in many states caused an artificial spike last week
- ICUs continue dropping
- "Cases" from mass/forced college testing + case definition changes = artificial increase
/2
Graph 3: Daily Tests + Detected Cases + Case Positivity
*Why are so many tests being done? 2M in the last 2 days
- Tests up 329k WoW <- All from colleges?
- Detected Cases up 5,000 WoW (1.5% Positivity)
- National Positivity jumped early week but dropping quickly again