Ben Moll Profile picture
20 Oct 20, 10 tweets, 4 min read
Want some insight into the evolution of macro but weren’t around in the 70s & 80s?

Read Tom Sargent’s 1979/1987 “Macroeconomic Theory” (1st/2nd edn). h/t @GregWKaplan for recommending it!

Intro and ToC: benjaminmoll.com/sargent_ToC_in…

So many gems! These are the first two chapters: Image
Definitely make sure to read the whole intro in full benjaminmoll.com/sargent_ToC_in… for passages like this: Image
This is the book’s very last paragraph – sounds familiar? Image
There is a section entitled “In Defense of Keynesian Analyses that ‘Ignore’ the Government’s Budget Constraint” 😃 – the argument seems to be a version of Sargent and Wallace (1981) Image
Here is the famous “just because things move doesn’t mean they’re inefficient” argument ImageImage
I found both the choice of material and exposition very interesting from today's point of view:

Some chapters are very similar to what we teach grad students today, e.g. Chapter III on investment, user cost of capital, etc... Image
... but others look much less familiar, e.g. this analysis of the Keynesian model with adaptive expectations: Image
... and even if the substance is familiar, the way it is presented often isn't: here an RBC model but everything is linear-quadratic ImageImage
The whole book has much much more!

Hope you find this brief trip in time to being a macro grad student in the 70s and 80s as fascinating as I did.

(And if you already knew or remember the book, maybe looking back at it will bring back some fond memories)
@Undercoverhist I'm sure you knew this book, but thought you'd enjoy this anyway...

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More from @ben_moll

16 Nov 20
When a small minority of loud economists attacks researchers from other disciplines, it makes us all look bad.

And allows the media to pit economists against epidemiologists in this unhelpful way economist.com/finance-and-ec…

A short thread:
This @TheEconomist article does not reflect the views of most economists I know.

Most economists I know did not "get off on the wrong foot" with epidemiologists. Instead they highly value their work and just try to learn from it as much as possible.

1/
They do not "intensely criticize" epidemiologists' models or their use. Instead they have hugely benefited from them and been very much aware of how difficult it is to forecast an epidemic in the face of limited and fast-changing data availability and quality.

2/
Read 9 tweets
17 Mar 20
Covid-19 simulations for US & UK:

imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…

Many conclusions not new though numbers still crazy, eg low red line in 1st graph = max ICU capacity.

To me long-run scenarios most striking though. Economists, what should policy response be w cycles in 2nd graph?
@R2Rsquared @christianbaye13 @pogourinchas @BachmannRudi @bornecon

As far as I can tell, your and others' economic policy advice assumes single-peaked epidemic scenario.

What if epidemic cycles? Same policies for longer? Or should the policies also cycle?
Clarification: "what should policy response be w cycles in 2nd graph" should have said "what should *economic* policy response be" eg how structure liquidity injections to firms and households?
Read 4 tweets

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