Students wanting to do a PhD in economics are often told that math is important

here's why (and some important caveats) ...
Markets need to balance out on average, e.g. the total purchase of cotton must equal the total production of cotton by farmers.

There are thousands of such markets and they must all balance out! How does this happen?
It is not possible to keep track of all this without resorting to mathematics, which is a tool for imposing rules and logic that nature dictates must hold.

Then there are many practical economic problems that at their core are mathematical riddles.
e.g. how should a society decide how to allocate a scarce resource, like donated organs, to those that need it?

How should vaccines be priced in the midst of a pandemic, such that everyone has access and pharma companies also have the resources to produce vaccines?
There there is data and empirical analysis. How does one know whether a given economic policy is beneficial? And how accurately can we make that judgement?

These are all statistical problems that require a deep understanding of statistics etc.
The bottom line is that math is an essential *tool* to do what we need to do as economists.

Now for some caveats.

There is a lot to economics that goes beyond math - understanding institutions, history, and above all people and their psychology!
There is an unfortunate tendency at times to use math to complicate things. The real purpose of math is to simplify, not confound

And you can do a LOT with just simple math. So don't let math overwhelm you.

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More from @AtifRMian

17 Oct
Why study economics?

It is a science that helps us understand how we are all connected in a mutually-reliant ecosystem

e.g. one person's supply is another person's demand ...
economics gives us insights into how we can design this ecosystem so we help each other become better off, or how we can screw things up in a mutually destructive manner

At its finest, economics is about making the sum bigger than its parts
perhaps contrary to some people's perception, some of the deepest insights of economics are about how selfish and individualistic behavior can be destructive for the broader society - precisely because we are all connected

young minds should consider studying the subject
Read 4 tweets
20 Aug
One of the hardest questions is what makes societies change?

"functioning" societies take care of each other, develop trust, tend to work for the common good - and as a result become richer

"mis-functioning" societies seem to do everything in reverse - and as result remain poor
Both types of societies are stable, meaning they can go on like that for long periods of time

The obvious question is how can one change a mis-functioning society into a functioning one? How does change happen at the system level?

Obviously, no single answer here
But by construction, change will be hard - very hard.

Because the reason mis-functioning societies mis-function is that there are groups that are collectively in control, and they benefit from the mis-function

So change requires annoying these dudes, and they don't like that
Read 4 tweets
15 Aug
One broad misconception about growth or development is that growth *requires* capital

That is not accurate: to first approximation, growth *creates* capital

some explanation ...
The most important ingredient, or requirement, for growth is productivity.

If productivity rises, firms and individual create a larger surplus that they can then deploy as capital, or investment, for even greater output.

This is the bottom line to keep in mind
Now, you might ask, but doesn't one need capital for boosting productivity?

Not really

Almost always, the constraints societies face have to do with organization, management, trust, rule of law, experimentation, institutions, innovation etc.
Read 7 tweets
5 Aug
Big-data driven economic analysis has made remarkable progress over the last 10/12 years

This has huge potential IF policy makers were to harness its power effectively

I was in the middle of trying to understand the economic repercussions of the 2008 recession ...
but stuff you can do today with data is incredibly more powerful, and many young scholars are leading the effort

e.g. we can, in almost real time ...

figure out which groups and areas have been more impacted

track consumer spending at a very detailed and granular level
quickly estimate response to fiscal policies like stimulus payments versus unemployment benefits, credit policies like PPP and mainstream lending

estimate behavioral responses to outbreak of disease etc
Read 6 tweets
28 Jul
This is the new not-normal normal

A majority of global 60T$ bonds yield near-zero to negative rate

@FT article says "investors blame the Federal Reserve". on.ft.com/39z1lHv

But that is wrong

Zero long-term rate reflects structural imbalances in the global economy ...
these imbalances have been rising over the past decades and reached a tipping point in 2008

The problem only got worse since then and hence the downward pressure on long-term rate continued

The Fed cannot raise long-term, or "natural rate", as it is sometimes called
The structural problem has to be solved elsewhere, e.g. rising inequality and high concentration of wealth

This would require serious re-tooling of the economy

The Fed cannot help much here
Read 4 tweets
25 Jul
It has long been said about many developing countries that they have a "low saving rate problem"

But this is not a helpful diagnosis and in fact can give a very misleading interpretation

Growing up, I heard people say this about Pakistan as well. But it's wrong ...
The basic point is that Saving=Investment is an accounting identity that we impose

So if rate of investment is low, obviously "saving" will be low as well - *by construction*

The more interesting is the horse vs. cart question: Is saving constrained by investment decision?
i.e. is "saving rate" being kept low because the economy is unable to make investment happen?

The answer most-often is YES in the context of countries like Pakistan

e.g. consider agriculture, often a dominant sector in such countries
Read 8 tweets

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