Thread: the US should have played a stronger role in stopping the fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia, instead Ankara is driving the conflict and Russia is watching, and will also gain influence at the end via dependency as it has in Syria, Libya etc.
A powerful NATO member still supports an attack on Armenia in NK, while Armenia wanted peace and hasn’t attacked anyone, and people say “Armenia is allied with Russia and Iran”...umm who is Armenia supposed to be allied with? It is being besieged by its powerful neighbors
Sure Armenia could try to be allied to western countries, but those countries don’t defend others or go to bat for them...remember in Afrin...who helped the poor people there? No one. That’s what happens when you have no allies.
Small countries need friends, and if they are faced with a massive attack or ethnic cleansing, they will reach out to whoever they can; the idea that Armenia is at fault for being linked to Russia is odd. Which country will stand with it at the negotiating table?
This is era of transition from US global hegemony to regional power politics and near-peer global powers, every country will be running to find allies.
If countries like the US don’t want countries running to Iran or Russia or Turkey they need to provide credible deterrence to attacks. Otherwise countries will shop around to ask who will defend them, or they will make deals.
US strategists and policy Akers need to take this into account. Countries know the EU won’t stand by them militarily (they see just statements but not actions, diplomatic “engagement” but not arms)...in a world of bigger countries using military+diplomacy Clausewitz style...
Every country will need real allies if they feel threatened. When Turkey made it clear that it can threaten Libya, Cyprus, Greece, Israel, and invade Syria and Iraq, everyone understood that this is a “might makes right” world.
The NATO membership for Ankara was supposed to make it powerful but not to empower invasions, NATO was supposed to be defensive and about democracy and human rights too; unfortunately an aggressive Ankara is not in line with that.
In an absence of global leadership countries like Turkey, Iran, Russia and China will increasingly partner or partition areas into zones of influence. That’s what will determine next decades especially as US seems to focus domestically more.
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